Electoral College Obamney vs Romney vs Johnson as at 5/5
Electoral College Maps - Romney CANNOT win
There are plenty of different versions of projected electoral college maps.
The one above seems as good as any.
All the electoral college maps are based on state by state polls and if they do not exist past history. (Some states are very safe Republican or Democrat.)
Romney needs to take just about EVERY toss up state. And he won't do it - not by a long shot.
Dems have their own electoral college maps as well.
Dems are talking about the possibility of taking states like Indiana and Montana which are well into Republican territory.
All the current maps do not take into account Gary Johnson running as 3rd party.
All the current polls are inaccurate and don't include Gary Johnson.
This will take it further towards Obama.
Let alone when Obama starts running attack ads on the baggage Romney is carrying, almost all of which has not been aired to the General Public.
The only indication of the effect of Gary Johnson is a national poll by PPP a month ago, where Obama's lead went from 4 pts to 7 pts when Johnson was included.
Three percentage points is a small amount but it would be enough to swing most toss up states to Obama.
Of course nobody has produced an electoral college map of Obama vs Ron Paul.
The poll data isn't there.
State polls of Obama vs Ron Paul including Gary Johnson are required.
But neither Romney nor Obama want these polls run.
Obama because he knows he can easily beat Romney but he would be 2nd favorite against Ron Paul.
Romney because it would discredit his nomination attempt.
Projected Electoral College Results if election held 5/5, Obama vs Romney
Obama 303 Romney 191
Add in G Johnson factor, Obama takes Florida and Colorado - Obama 341 Romney 191
I call that a landslide.
It won't me link to the updated Electoral College Map reflecting current polls.
More than 10 images.
It is on here http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/...ey-cannot.html
In the end, more than freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all – security, comfort, and freedom. When the Athenians finally wanted not to give to society but for society to give to them, when the freedom they wished for most was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free and was never free again.”
― Edward Gibbon
An adequate summing up of America today.
American's want freedom from responsibility.
The responsibility of defending the Constitution.
The responsibility of ensuring the candidates for government they vote for, support the Constitution.
The responsibility of being well informed.
The responsibility of ensuring due legal process and the rule of law.
The responsibility of taking care of yourself and your family.
The responsibility of treating people with respect.
There are lots more responsibilities that American's have abdicated themselves from. American's better wake up and take some responsibility real quick.
Last edited by Ian56; 05-07-2012 at 02:39 PM.
Reason: Links put back in
The Electoral College Map should be used by the campaign team to show how far behind Romney is.
National percentage polls do not show a true outcome.
The campaign team should also show how Ron Paul will beat Obama.
The electorate demographics are roughly :-
Republican 27%, Independent 40%, Democrat 33% - but it varies for each state.
So if Ron Paul takes a significant majority of Independents, the vast majority of Republicans and some disaffected Democrats (mostly the young 18 to 30/35) he will win.
E.G. 90% of Republicans, 60% of Independents and 10% of Democrats.
24.3% + 24% + 3.3% = 51.6%
I would assume that Gary Johnson would drop out and endorse Ron Paul, if that meant Ron Paul winning.
The campaign should also hammer home to the Republican Party, that Ron Paul supporters do not think like them.
A Wake Up Call to the Republican Party
It is pretty clear to me that the Republican Party in general just does not understand Ron Paul supporters, their background, their goals, their motivation, their politics.
The Republican Party seems to think that Ron Paul supporters, think like them. We do not.
The Republican Party thinks that the vast majority of Ron Paul supporters will eventually come around and vote Romney to kick Obama out. We will not.
Ron Paul supporters are a diverse group of people with diverse backgrounds.
A lot are young and have never been motivated to vote before and would never have got interested in poltics if it were not for Ron Paul.
A lot are independents who see no real difference between the main parties.
Some want real change and got deceived by Obama's empty rhetoric in 2008.
Some have not voted in an election for years and years (and some not at all) because there has never been a candidate that appealed to them.
Some got disheartened with the neocon agenda and endless wars.
Some saw a Ron Paul message at some point in time, got interested and looked him up a bit on the internet.
Some are Libertarians.
Some just realised that America is going downhill fast and there must be something better.
Some are financially knowledgeable and know Ron Paul has the only solution.
Most of them do not watch Fox News.
Ron Paul supporters are principled and support the Constitution. Their first loyalty lies there.
Ron Paul supporters want to go BACK to what made America great.
4 more years of Obama would do less damage than 8 years of Romney.
The vast majority of us will not vote for Romney.
A lot of us will continue campaigning against Romney, whatever happens.
Romney cannot win against Obama in November without Ron Paul supporters and he does not have them.
There is zero enthusiasm for Romney, even amongst ordinary GOP voters.
The Republican Party can beat Obama and will become favorites to do so, if they nominate Ron Paul.
Point out,in every possible forum, that Mitt Romney's biggest contributors are, "same thieves that stole your home and stole your job, make big bonuses doing so, got bailouts from the government (in other words, YOUR money), then get more big bonuses. How does it feel to vote for a candidate that is financed by money stolen from YOU?"
Voters are selfish and emotional.
And they don't like getting mugged.
Romney's largest donors from opensecrets
Other donor information in section 3 here.
Debt, Europe, China and other things.
American's are sleepwalking into disaster.
All that the Founders warned against has come to pass. A too powerful Federal Government owned by bankers, with an ignorant electorate voting for more of the same.
The media is complicit.
The crony capitalism in Washington seeks to perpetuate the status quo.
The education system seeks to perpetuate the status quo. The Federal Reserve has even launched a new propaganda campaign to pretend it is Constitutional despite the categorical evidence to the contrary in the Constitution and the Founders letters and thoughts.
I cannot see how a message is going to get out to the general public, so it looks like the following is inevitable.
Over the next four or five years :
1. The National Debt is set to rise to $22tn whether Obama or Romney becomes President. (It will no doubt be more see below.)
2. The European debt problem will explode and the dominoes will fall throughout Europe.
3. The European debt problem is 7 to 25 times the scale of the 2008 financial crisis.
The 2008 Financial crisis will seem like a ripple on a pond compared to what is coming up.
The maximum amount the Fed loaned out on any 1 day was $1.2tn in 2008.
Estimates vary for the size of the European debt problem from $8tn to $32tn. Taking into account Sovereign debt, bank debt, insurance company liabilities, derivatives, government off balance sheet liabilities etc.
4. China and non USD trade deals
China will accelerate the pace of setting up new non USD trade deals and an alternative reserve currency will de facto become apparent.
Once the USD loses it's reserve status America collapses.
To put it simply America imports goods and exports paper (US Treasuries and dollars) to pay for them.
If American paper is no longer acceptable, America becomes like Greece with the effective elimination of the middle classes.
The only way to avoid this scenario is to maintain confidence in the value of the dollar by getting government spending under control and to stop printing dollars.
The FED denies thatQE3 is underway, but the Fed has been printing since late November, no one knows how much it has printed so far.
Both Romney and Obama plan to run $1.1+ deficits even with rosy assumptions about GDP growth. (current projections are for US GDP growth of 2 to 3% in 2012, but they are being lowered all the time.)
There was a recent conference by the BRICS - China, Brazil, India and Russia which also included South Africa about pursuing non USD trade deals.
Japan signed a non USD trade deal with China last year.
Quite a few African countries have expressed interest in non USD trade deals with China (they have already signed natural resources deals).
Australia has signed a currency swap deal with China in the last month.
China has stated it will start Yuan international loans. In effect becoming the only direct competitor to the Fed.
Iran of course is part of these discussions.
China continues to expand relations with Saudi Arabia, e.g. the very large joint project for refineries and export facilities in Saudi Arabia.
If you add up the total GDP of all these countries moving away from the USD, it is far larger than the US itself.
Or you could say the US is outnumbered despite it's military might.
5. America's fiscal position
On any rational assessment America's fiscal position is somewhere between Greece and Italy/Spain.
In terms of government budget deficit, trade deficit and national debt/GDP.
Rumours abound and appear occasionally in mainstream media about Spain and Italy defaulting and this is reflected in the markets in terms of debt yields.
But none appear about the US due to the USD reserve status. We can always print some more.
But at some point the US (or the Fed) can print all that it likes and it will do no good, because no one else will want worthless US paper.
To some extent this has already started, the Federal Reserve is now buying 61% of new government debt. Foreign investors are steering clear.
China and Russia have already very significantly reduced their holdings of US Treasuries. I cannot see why they will not reduce further.
6. US deep recession
Europe will go into recession later this year, with further debt problems and austerity measures.
Even Holland, supposedly one of the strong 3 in the Eueo Zone (the others being Germany and Finland) is now having government deficit issues.
China is suffering a rapid slowdown from 9 to 10 % growth in 2011 to 6% in 2012. China has it's own problems with a deflating property bubble, bad bank debts, mismanaged state run enterprises, mismanaged government spending (especially at the provincial level), growing unemployment and growing social unrest.
China's middle class is not growing fast enough to supplant the slowdown in growth of export earnings.
The US will not be able to avoid these headwinds and will begin a deep recession within the next 12 months.
This will further weaken the US fiscal position and a spiral of decline will begin.
7. Debt ratings
As ever the ratings agencies are way behind the curve on downgrades.
Just about every European country will have it's sovereign debt downgraded by multiple notches over the next 12-18 months.
US debt will also be downgraded by multiple notches.
Several hundred banks will be downgraded (500+).
The above all adds up to disaster for ordinary American's.
One might say a financial apocalypse is on it's way.
The only way to mitigate and reduce the coming financial difficulties is to maintain confidence in the USD, which both Romney and Obama are quite clearly failing to do.
If anyone is interested there is more practical type stuff on here.