PPP Montana (05/02): Paul leads Obama by 8 - Stronger than Romney

[Havax]

Paul 49% (+8)
Obama 41%

Romney 48% (+5)
Obama 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...n-montana.html

Romney leads Obama 48-43, down from a 50-40 advantage when PPP last polled the state in November. Worse for Romney is that his soon-to-be-vanquished intraparty foe Ron Paul actually leads Obama by eight points (49-41). Obama is able to keep it relatively close here because he basically ties Romney with the plurality independents, while Paul leads by 22 points.

At this point, Romney is far more popular than Paul with Republicans, and has two-thirds of the vote in the caucus, while Paul only maintains the quarter of the vote he got in the three-way 2008 caucus. [B}But with independents, Romney has a lot of work to do, and this is true and more problematic for him in swing states where Obama is doing just as well as he did in 2008 because of Romney’s toxicity with independents and Democrats. That is on top of lingering doubts with some partisan Republicans who were not behind him in the primary battle. [/B]

Paul’s libertarian brother Gary Johnson could also present a problem for Romney, particularly in the western states. Johnson’s presence on a third-party ballot line would bring Romney’s lead down to two points over Obama, with Johnson pulling 8%. That is because he lowers Romney’s share of the GOP vote from 92% to 83% while hardly touching Obama’s grasp of his party.

PublicPolicyPolling ‏ @ppppolls
Ron Paul does better than Romney against Obama (49-41) because he leads Obama by 22 with indies vs Romney's 1

PublicPolicyPolling ‏ @ppppolls
Romney's weakness with indies not enough to lose Montana but he has the same problem in states he has to win

[10000usernames]

Only ron can't beat Obama. But Ron cannot beat Mitt.

[Svenskar_för_Ron_Paul]

Only ron can't beat Obama. But Ron cannot beat Mitt.

Well see about that. We just might see the reincarnation of Warren G. Harding...

[rich34]

Only ron can't beat Obama. But Ron cannot beat Mitt.

I wouldn't count my chickens before they hatch, bub.

[Jackie Moon]

Funny the difference in titles between this thread and the article, they just can't bring themselves to admit in a headline when Paul leads in a poll.

[sailingaway]

Only ron can't beat Obama. But Ron cannot beat Mitt.

when does voter registration close? Is it an open primary? I have to check.

However, in today's news Romney is upping his ads big time in swing states including NV and Montana....

May 7 is the end of regular (not late) voter registration for Montana

so I'm putting a modified version of this on the front page

[PaulSoHard]

Ads for what though, the primary or the general?

As long as it has nothing to do with the primary I'm fine, let him waste his money trying to compete

[kathy88]

Worse for Romney is that his soon-to-be-vanquished intraparty foe Ron Paul actually leads Obama by eight points (49-41). Obama is able to keep it relatively close here because he basically ties Romney with the plurality independents, while Paul leads by 22 points.

Did I read that correctly? Add in the independents and RP has a 22 point lead? SERIOUSLY? But the headline is about Romney barely squeaking it by Obama. No wonder people give the hell up and take it without vaseline. This is such crap.

[RonRules]

Go cowboys! (the real ones)

[kathy88]

IF RP gets the nomination is Gary Johnson going to run against him?

[Jackie Moon]

IF RP gets the nomination is Gary Johnson going to run against him?

From what I've heard, no. Which is more reason for the GOP to see the need to have Paul as the nominee. I'd like to see Romney's numbers in a poll with Obama, Romney, Johnson and "Write in" for people like me who would write in Ron Paul instead. That would be a lot more accurate to what will happen if it's Romney.

[sailingaway]

If Ron gets the nomination, I don't think GJ would be a concern. He wasn't in the GOP primary.

[speciallyblend]

gary would endorse ron paul. I know he would.

[alucard13mmfmj]

gary would endorse ron paul. I know he would.

I think libertarians and constitution and all the third parties should get behind Ron Paul. I feel that Ron Paul will break this left/right paradigm and maybe open the door for a third party in the future to play a bigger role in the USA. I hope that if Ron gets in, he might change the rules a little bit and make it easier or more fair for third party to get involved in the general elections. I think this would be a major game changer in US politics. No more of this republican/democrat bullcrap. I am pretty sure most of us are sick of being in either of the major party and is only in it to vote for Ron.

I heard we might get a Green party congresswoman (I forgot her name, she had dark skin complexion and one of the only politician that cares about Africa and not bomb or take advantage of them). It is nice that third party is slowly being more relevent.

[Warmon]

Only Ron can beat Obama. But Ron cannot beat Mitt.

I fixed that for you. Truthfully, we aren't even running against Mitt as much as we are running against the status quo that he is a card carrying member of.

[malkusm]

Did I read that correctly? Add in the independents and RP has a 22 point lead? SERIOUSLY? But the headline is about Romney barely squeaking it by Obama. No wonder people give the hell up and take it without vaseline. This is such crap.

No - Ron has a 22 point lead over Obama with independents, which raises his overall lead over Obama to 8 points.

[Eisenhower]

Lol what a terribly written article...

[Voluntarist]

xxxxx

[Voluntarist]

xxxxx

[sailingaway]

Everyone realizes, of course, that a +/- 3.2% margin of error means that all we really know is that Paul and Romney are essentially tied; or do we ignore mathematics when it makes our guy look good?.

It means that Ron is outside of the margin of error from Obama, and Romney isn't, is what it means. Or do we ignore statistics when they help our guy?

this is the poll that came out today. When those polls come out we will look at them. But late last year there WAS a poll done of head to heads in all the major swing states against Obama, and Ron Paul did better OVER ALL than Romney did.

[Voluntarist]

xxxxx

[sailingaway]

If your agenda is to trash the poll that is beneficial to Ron you can throw in all that stuff, but that is not the way polls are typically read, so I am not doing that. That would be highly unusual.

[Havax]

Hey Voluntarist, Ron Paul can take any good spin he can get at this point since he's virtually become invisible again in the MSM. Let us run with what we can get.

[J_White]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏ @ppppolls
Ron Paul does better than Romney against Obama (49-41) because he leads Obama by 22 with indies vs Romney's 1

GOP, are you listening ? its time to get your head out of the sand, still not too late !

[J_White]

I think we need to compile all these head to head polls in individual states, national polling cannot be considered as accurate.
CAMPAIGN !! where is the "electability" ad ?

It means that Ron is outside of the margin of error from Obama, and Romney isn't, is what it means. Or do we ignore statistics when they help our guy?

this is the poll that came out today. When those polls come out we will look at them. But late last year there WAS a poll done of head to heads in all the major swing states against Obama, and Ron Paul did better OVER ALL than Romney did.

[Voluntarist]

xxxxx

[Voluntarist]

xxxxx

[defe07]

I'd like to see a Montana poll between Ron and Romney. :P

[RickyJ]

Only ron can't beat Obama. But Ron cannot beat Mitt.

Ron Paul can beat Mitt and Obama in the general election. I got a feeling if he doesn't get the nomination he is going to run third party.

[RickyJ]

If Ron gets the nomination, I don't think GJ would be a concern. He wasn't in the GOP primary.

Yeah he was at the start, then he dropped out.