Super Brochure results for Connecticut

[enoch150]

Ron Paul received 16.8% of the vote in Connecticut towns where the Super Brochure was mailed (Six towns also had it as an insert in newspapers, one town had it included as an insert in newspapers, but did not have it mailed to super voters.) Paul received 13.28% of the vote from towns that did not get the Super Brochure. Towns that got the brochure were generally smaller.





Many of the Super Brochures were deliberately distributed to towns where Paul did relatively well in 2008. Paul received an average of 5.5% of the vote in 2008 in towns that got the Super Brochure in 2012 and only 4.0% of the vote in towns that did not get the brochure. This could explain some of the better results from towns that got the brochure in 2012.





However, towns that received the brochure actually increased at a slightly higher rate than towns that did not receive the brochure. I find this impressive because it is more difficult to increase from 12% of the vote to 24% of the vote than it is to go from 6% to 12%.





FWIW: I did not encourage this anywhere outside of Connecticut, which was ignored by the official campaign. But I see no real evidence that it caused any damage other than diverting some funds away from the official campaign and some evidence that it did some good locally.

[gerryb]

What is the second chart? It shows that the towns that got SB's in 2012 were already significantly friendlier in 08?

[enoch150]

What is the second chart? It shows that the towns that got SB's in 2012 were already significantly friendlier in 08?

Yes, they started at a higher base (2nd chart), but increased at the same rate (3rd chart). This shows there was no harmful effect from the Super Brochure, and it may have helped a bit since it's harder to increase at the same rate from a higher base. This does not address the other criticisms of the Super Brochure, such as that it draws money away from the official campaign for use in other states. There was no official campaign presence in Connecticut, so the efficiency of the Super Brochure mailings vs. campaign mailings within Connecticut doesn't apply.

Here's another way of looking at it: