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If Iowa goes Huckabee, Romney, Thompson, Paul and NH goes Paul, Romney, McCain.. then that makes NV, MI, and SC really, really important.
If Paul can win 1 of those 3, he will have 2 of the first 6 and a lot of momentum going into super tuesday. Huckabee is only a threat in SC, and I don't think any other candidate can get 2 of 6 early states. (Maybe Rudy in FL & NV or MI)
There will be a huge chance for a deadlocked national convention where nobody has enough delegates.
You know what makes me ill. Huckabee would be absolutely nowhere if the media hadn't decided to prop him up as a serious candidate. It matters not if Huckabee can't raise $20 as long as the media continues to carry his water. And, of course, they doing it specifically to counter Dr. Paul's surge of genuine support. It make me nauseous.
IF michigan even has primary. If Michigan does have a primary this is good news for Ron Paul. Michigan has an open primary and the only democrat on the ballot in Michigan is going to be Hillary--I think. This means that all the democrats who would normally vote in the primary who don't support Hillary may very will vote for Ron Paul. I already know a bigtime liberal who is voting for Ron Paul, just because of the reason I cited.
"There is no such thing as society: there are individual men and women, and there are families." --Margaret Thatcher
"You may have to fight a battle more than once to win it."--Margaret Thatcher
we don't win a majority of the delegates going into the election. We can't afford to arrive with only a plurality and leave it up for grabs there. As all the delegates of the other candidates will eventually gang up on us.
I think Huckabee is going to win Iowa; he's the biggest supporter of agricultural subsidies of any of the candidates, going so far as to give it its own issues page on his website.
On the plus side that means that we don't have to worry too much about a Huckabee win in Iowa cascading into a Huckabee win in the other early primary states. I have every confidence in the good doctor to win New Hampshire, and he ought to make a very strong showing in Nevada as well, if the straw polls are any indicator.
The problem is South Carolina. Unless Giuliani starts imploding faster (and you'd think the things with Kerik and/or Robertson would have done it, but I guess not), I think Ron's going to have a pretty poor showing there, even if he does manage better than 4th.
Agreed. People also need to be thinking of the early Democrat primaries. If Hillary wins half the early states, I'm pretty sure that Dr. Paul will see additional surges in open primaries from Democrats who want someone other than Hillary. Stay in until the end as Ron Paul's chances just get better and better over the long haul, especially after winning states and people start paying attention to what he's going for.
I'm actually hoping the majority of the neocon candidates stay in for the first few states. With the votes spread out among them, Dr. Paul will have a serious advantage running against all of them.
I've been thinking about that scenario too. Romney would be crushed, since he's depending on getting two wins. McCain is gone is he doesn't win NH.
Huck would be a one hit wonder, accomplishing little more than securing his spot as #2 on a Rudy ticket.
The big winner would be Ron Paul, who unlike Huck has a dedicated national following.
NH is likely to shake down like Ron and Mitt first and second (it's up to us to decide which order), then McCain 3rd. There's still some love left over for McCain here from 2000, but he's being perceived as out of touch due to his support of the war. Romney has the name recognition, Ron is building up name recognition here quickly, though. Even my non-political friends were talking about the money bomb. My ultra-liberal sister sent me a birthday card (my BD is tomorrow ) and she ended her note with: "Could it be Ron Paul?"
JM
I think Paul will be 4th or 5th in Iowa unless the turnout is exceptionally low.
i miss the way things could be hashed out without people getting too rude.
this thread looked at what different outcomes would have done to things in
2oo8. if anything, this year is not "politics as usual" in that this is the first
time a sitting president has been running for office at the same time that the
same said sitting president has to explain things inside an impeachment trial.
here we are, more than a decade later. events are on the march. the trial looms.
Nothing will happen because the winner of the Iowa caucus doesn't dictate who will eventually become the nominee. Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz all won Iowa but didn't go on to become the president.
"Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration is minding my own business."
Calvin Coolidge
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