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Thread: Is Credit Card Debt an expansion of the Money Supply?

  1. #141

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    Quote Originally Posted by matt0611 View Post
    Steven, I really enjoy your posts on money (in this thread and in others) and find that your logic is very solid and consistent.

    What is your response to Black Flags assertion that fractional reserve banking is not inflationary and that demand deposits (M1) are not in themselves "money"? (putting the gold vs fiat debate to the side for the moment)

    Would be curious to get your take on that...
    I have a very different, MUCH broader definition of money than Black Flag does - his definition is highly semantic, very narrow, and deliberately ridiculing and exclusive of anything that doesn't fit what appears to be his beloved and currently enthroned paper regime.

    Before I continue, let me be clear on my definition of inflationary, which has NOTHING to do with the disingenuous, intellectually dishonest "general price increases" (an effect with multiple possible causes). When I use the terms inflationary or deflationary, I am referring to the actual supply of what most people count as money, including ALL fiduciary media, that is actively circulating, and therefore "felt" by the economy.

    Fractional reserve lending on a loan-by-loan basis is first inflationary (as money is spent into the economy), then deflationary, as the loan is paid off and the interest (which was not created as part of the loan) is siphoned back into the bank. Because credit MUST expand indefinitely for the entire Ponzi system to remain viable, in the aggregate fractional reserve lending is highly and deliberately inflationary -- but also in the aggregate, assuming no infusion of "new money" (the only kind BF counts as money), deflation from all debts paid under our current fractional reserve lending regime would be catastrophic, as there are orders of magnitude more claims on the same base money extant. To satisfy those claims you must a) create more base money (strictly inflationary to the money supply), and/or b) increase the velocity and number of new claims on existing base money (inflationary then deflationary on the whole). And since money in either form cannot be created except as a form of debt, with attendant interest payment requirements, and since exponential expansion of credit is a physical impossibility, the end game is only a question of an equally exponential drop in the value of the money (hyperinflation), with a possible interim - but equally catastrophic - drop in the supply (deflationary depression).

    The only question in my mind, using the deaths of stars as a metaphor: Do we just progress into a Red Giant, like our own sun will one day, as an ordinary main sequence star, engulfing everything in its path with its perpetual expansion (hyperinflation), leaving behind a white dwarf? Or, is it larger than a main sequence star economy. Do we, with the help of the Fed and IMF, implode before going full supernova, leaving behind a neutron star, or even a black hole from which nothing escapes?

    Either way, the Death Fundamentals for our currency regimes are solidly in place, and they dictate the end game, and that's for a regime of unprecedented magnitude and velocity, the death of which will be positively catastrophic.

    Hope that helps.



  • #142

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    I have a very different, MUCH broader definition of money than Black Flag does - his definition is highly semantic, very narrow, and deliberately ridiculing and exclusive of anything that doesn't fit what appears to be his beloved and currently enthroned paper regime.
    It is not semantic, it is narrow and exclusive as that is the utility of defining things

    You want everything a bank does to be some form of money and end up so confused:

    Steven's money definition labeled as a dog:

    Dog=dog
    Dog=leg
    Dog=kicking
    Dog=flower

    Steven's conversation:
    "I dogged the dog and he bit my dog causing me to fall into the dog"

    Since this is nonsense, he tries to correct it by adding numbers:

    Dog=dog=Dog0
    Dog=kick=Dog1
    Dog=leg=Dog2
    Dog=flowers=Dog3

    "I dogg1'ed the dog0 and he bit my dog2 causing me to fall into the dog3"

    This incredibly complex of relabeling still misses the real definition of a dog!
    And that is the problem - Steven (and others) start making up theories based on everything being a dog (with a number) based on how dogs do things.

  • #143

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    I am referring to the actual supply of what most people count as money, including ALL fiduciary media, that is actively circulating, and therefore "felt" by the economy.

    But that's the problem -- all this dog(#) money created utterly does not match the increase in inflation. There is little correlation.

    So, your calculation of all your money and non-money money and non-non-non money money doesn't do a thing to figure out anything like inflation risk.

  • #144

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    See, Matt? Most of what you and most people think of as money, BF will set you straight and get your mind right - "That's not money, it's a dog-leg-kick-flower, silly. Pfft. So much for your knowledge of banking, finance and economics."

  • #145

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    Quote Originally Posted by rpwi View Post
    Quite true in the apple industry. Not so true in the banking industry. We has a nation have truly forgotten to take deliver of our dollars from our bank deposits...and banks have sneakily created more deposits than they should have. Bank deposits are money (store of value) so they can get away with this, while an apple industry can't.
    Sure they can, they make apple juice.

    Not the same with money. People don't cash out their checking accounts. Why? Because they are content (erroneously) to accept checks as payment instead of dollars.
    They are accepting dollars as payment when you cash your check ... that is the point of "clearing the check".

  • #146

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    See, Matt? Most of what you and most people think of as money, BF will set you straight and get your mind right - "That's not money, it's a dog-leg-kick-flower, silly. Pfft. So much for your knowledge of banking, finance and economics."
    Ah, it is a story to show how ridiculous your labeling and mis-labeling of money is.

    You combine money plus a consequence of a transaction using money to be... Money!

    As before, you think the dog and the dog's bark makes two dogs.

  • #147

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    Quote Originally Posted by rpwi View Post
    When the Fed creates more MB for the banking system...this results in an increase in the supply of MB as well as an increase in the supply of M1 and higher aggregates (although there can be a delay).

    Aspects do...but the core premise of bank money doesn't obey the laws of supply and demand for the same reason supply and demand doesn't work to prevent counterfeiting. If I counterfeit dollar bills, I benefit because somebody else assumes they are dollars. I'm taking advantage of their ignorance. Counterfeiting = fractional banking.
    Counterfeiting is NOT what the fractional banking system is doing.

    Again, because you hold a bizarre theory of money like Steven, you fall into bizarro world where banks are making "money" out of thin air and selling it as if it was real stuff.

    But they are not. They do not make 'thin-air' money. They are not counterfeiting - every dollar you use to buy a good or service is real FRBN money.

    Again, as I repeat - while holding crackpot theory of money, you end up with crackpot conclusions.

  • #148

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    Quote Originally Posted by Black Flag View Post
    As before, you think the dog and the dog's bark makes two dogs.
    Not "makes" two dogs. Is treated and viewed by the economy as ten or more dogs. World of difference, since all ten or more barks (or bites) can be heard/felt simultaneously.

  • #149

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    Steven
    Fractional reserve lending on a loan-by-loan basis is first inflationary (as money is spent into the economy), then deflationary, as the loan is paid off and the interest (which was not created as part of the loan) is siphoned back into the bank.
    Poppycock! Another crackpot conclusion based on crackpot theory of money.

    Deposit $100, and the series of loans, redeposits and loans....

    $100 in FED reserve, ~$900 in loans outstanding, ~$900 in demand deposits outstanding.
    I think Steven agrees up to here....

    I repay $10 of my loan.
    To repay $10 of my loan means someone had to withdraw $10 from their demand deposit.

    $90 FED, $900 Loan, $890 Demand deposit, $10 cash.

    They pay me the cash, and I pay off my loan

    $90 FED, $10 bank excess reserve, $890 loan, $890 Demand deposit.

    Where is the deflation?

    What the bank does with the money is irrelevant - but usually they Loan it out again to a new borrower

    To claim paying off "debt" is deflationary is utterly bizarre. There is never more money in the system then $100 - NO DEMAND DEPOSIT ACCOUNT CAN WITHDRAW MORE THAN THAT. though should many withdraw their demand deposit, serious issues arise.
    Last edited by Black Flag; 04-08-2012 at 09:53 PM.

  • #150

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    Not "makes" two dogs. Is treated and viewed by the economy as ten or more dogs. World of difference, since all ten or more barks (or bites) can be heard/felt simultaneously.
    I was being generous, but you even show how much more bizarre the theory of money you articulate! Yep, one dog, and a bark ... and you believe there are 9 of them out side.

    Of course, once you open the door and reconcile ... you see only one.
    But no problem for the crackpot theory - it is waved away with "thin money" evaporates!

    Yep, the leprechaun theory of money! It is there at the rainbow, for sure! except when you get there, it will disappear before you get it!

    (PS: the economy does not "treat" illusions as real nor "views" what does not exist - economics is a science not mysticism.)
    Last edited by Black Flag; 04-08-2012 at 09:58 PM.

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