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Thread: (Huge) delegate vote anomaly in Alabama verified

  1. #751

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    Quote Originally Posted by parocks View Post
    Yeah, I was in Maine, at the convention. I think people should be focused on things like that, winning delegates, and not staring at charts. It's pretty simple what happened in Alabama.

    Seems like theres a lot of people who joined up here in March 2012 who want Ron Paul Supporters to spend lots of time and effort on a wild goose chase that makes us seem crazy. If someone on another site realizes that theres a simple explanation for what happened in Alabama, good for them.
    No offense but your "simple explanation" doesn't explain the chart below. I don't have a problem IF you sincerely believe your explanation. Romney has a 200- 300 vote to delegate differential when all the others are reasonably close... I don't find this at all random.




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  3. #752

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    Yeah, don't care. I have a basic chart which shows a plausible explanation for what happened. You all can keep starting at charts everyday, 8 hours a day, and try to explain that what we're looking at is fraud. I don't care.

    This here is good enough. On to campaigning, or whatever else it is you do.

    This topic should've been sent to hot topics long ago. Actually, "staring at graphs, believing there's fraud" should be a sub topic of hot topics, so that they have their own little playground that no one else has to be bothered by.






    Quote Originally Posted by The Man View Post
    No offense but your "simple explanation" doesn't explain the chart below. I don't have a problem IF you sincerely believe your explanation. Romney has a 200- 300 vote to delegate differential when all the others are reasonably close... I don't find this at all random.


  4. #753

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    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty1789 View Post
    No dice... Baffles me. If you have the file locally, would you mind uploading it to filedropper?
    http://www.filedropper.com/precinct20report021508

  5. #754

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    Remember that chart?


    Thanks to The Man, we now have the data for Jefferson County in 2008. And it looks like this:


    I suppose that, over only 4 years, the vast majority of voters are the same people using an identically formatted ballot.

    The difference is stunning.

    Given that, when queried about the checks on overvoting, the Jefferson County Alabam Election Commisioner emailed to the Man that:

    We changed no procedures from 2008 to 2012 regarding delegates.
    we still have no explanation whatsoever for this jaw-dropping difference. Outside the vote tampering hypothesis, that is...

  6. #755

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    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty1789 View Post
    we still have no explanation whatsoever for this jaw-dropping difference. Outside the vote tampering hypothesis, that is...
    Exactly.
    Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

  7. #756

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    Spectacular work, Liberty.

    After you take a well deserved break, if you can, please chart (histogram) the number of votes per machine.

    It's unusual that 18 of them only had one vote.
    Statistics don't lie, people do.

  8. #757

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    Quote Originally Posted by RonRules View Post
    Spectacular work, Liberty.

    After you take a well deserved break, if you can, please chart (histogram) the number of votes per machine.

    It's unusual that 18 of them only had one vote.
    Does not look unusual. Remember typically 2 machines per site (in case of breakdown I suppose), even in the low count ones.



    Last freebie. From now, it is $62/ hour

  9. #758

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    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty1789 View Post
    Does not look unusual. Remember typically 2 machines per site (in case of breakdown I suppose), even in the low count ones.
    Last freebie. From now, it is $62/ hour
    Thanks for the trouble. 18 machines with one vote seemed strange, but when 13 machines have 2 votes, 11 have 3 votes, etc., it all looks pretty reasonable.

    But your 2012/2008 delegate charts need to go on the cover of Statistics Magazine!
    Statistics don't lie, people do.

  10. #759

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    Quote Originally Posted by RonRules View Post
    Thanks for the trouble. 18 machines with one vote seemed strange, but when 13 machines have 2 votes, 11 have 3 votes, etc., it all looks pretty reasonable.

    But your 2012/2008 delegate charts need to go on the cover of Statistics Magazine!
    Oh yeah, that'd make a nice textbook cover.
    Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

  11. #760

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    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty1789 View Post
    Remember that chart?
    Thanks to The Man, we now have the data for Jefferson County in 2008. And it looks like this:
    I suppose that, over only 4 years, the vast majority of voters are the same people using an identically formatted ballot.
    The difference is stunning.Given that, when queried about the checks on overvoting, the Jefferson County Alabam Election Commisioner emailed to the Man that: we still have no explanation whatsoever for this jaw-dropping difference. Outside the vote tampering hypothesis, that is...

    OK Liberty1789. I have found independently of your histogram below that Paul really scored around 13% but was intentionally flatlined at 5%. IF an algorithm was used that utilized a DIVISOR instead of simple subtraction to recalculate Paul's total, would it not totally explain your histogram? Something like Paul new=5%= (Paul old%)/n where n=integer to give Paul new closest to 5%. The noise in between each X-Axis whole number integer is from true delegate voter error.


    Last edited by The Man; 05-10-2012 at 06:48 PM.

  12. #761

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by parocks View Post
    Yeah, I was in Maine, at the convention. I think people should be focused on things like that, winning delegates, and not staring at charts. It's pretty simple what happened in Alabama.

    Seems like theres a lot of people who joined up here in March 2012 who want Ron Paul Supporters to spend lots of time and effort on a wild goose chase that makes us seem crazy. If someone on another site realizes that theres a simple explanation for what happened in Alabama, good for them.
    oh, stop flapping your gums about your join date. i've been here pretty much the same amount of time you've been, but unlike you i don't 'analyze' why we should all start voting for Santorum and other opposing candidates and otherwise attempt to (intentionally or unintentionally) undermine the Paul campaign. Your 'chart' of made up numbers is laughable, nearly indecipherable, and completely meaningless.
    "Ron Paul, not going anywhere. Ideologically pure and tough as nails!"

    ABO + NOBP = Ron Paul
    Romney - NOBP = Obama

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    We warned you. You insulted and cheated us. You lost. Your fault.

  13. #762

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    Quote Originally Posted by parocks View Post
    Yeah, don't care. I have a basic chart which shows a plausible explanation for what happened. You all can keep starting at charts everyday, 8 hours a day, and try to explain that what we're looking at is fraud. I don't care.This here is good enough. On to campaigning, or whatever else it is you do. This topic should've been sent to hot topics long ago. Actually, "staring at graphs, believing there's fraud" should be a sub topic of hot topics, so that they have their own little playground that no one else has to be bothered by.
    IF you "don't care", then don't read this. I want to believe the honest explanation- it helps me to sleep better. I don't have a problem with you believing your own explanation. But here is why your "explanation" explains nothing and it ignores logical reasoning.
    Following are some basic laws of distribution regarding Alabama's delegate votes in the 2012 GOP Primary that you have ignored in your "explanation". Unless there is something in the ballot design that caused the discrepancy (I don't see it), these basic laws of distribution hold:
    1. Each delegate undervote for a specific Presidential candidate's delegate was generated by that particular candidate's own voter.
    2. Each delegate overvote for a specific Presidential candidate's delegate was generated by one of the other 3 candidate's voters.
    3. Each candidate's share of the total delegate undervotes should be proportional to that candidate's share of the total vote while each candidate's delegate overvotes should be proportional to percentage of the total voters that voted for the other 3 candidates (based on #1 and #2 above).
    4. Each candidate's delegate overvotes minus delegate undervotes = candidate's reported delegates minus reported candidate votes.

  14. #763

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    Come and check out the exciting Rhode Island Delegate action:

    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...58#post4414358
    Statistics don't lie, people do.

  15. #764

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    Have you Alabama thread guys made charts that compare delegates to each other?

    Romney's Delegate #1 vs. Paul's Delegate #1 vs Gingrich Delegate #1 vs. Santorum Delegate#1
    Romney's Delegate #2 vs. Paul's Delegate #2 vs Gingrich Delegate #2 vs. Santorum Delegate#2
    Romney's Delegate #3 vs. Paul's Delegate #3 vs Gingrich Delegate #3 vs. Santorum Delegate#3

    Since you have the data already loaded this should not be too difficult to do. I'd like to see if they flat-line or flip like in Rhode Island.

    Thnks.
    Statistics don't lie, people do.

  16. #765

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    affa has made the remark in the past that the presidential vote has no reason to outperform the delegate vote. I have check this in Jefferson County.

    Here is the 2008 data:



    The undervote count is proportional to the presidential vote count. Correlation above 99%. Quite intuitive, right?

    So what on Earth is going on in 2012?


  17. #766

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    Liberty, you make the most graphic graphs!

    They just shout the injustice and fraud.
    Statistics don't lie, people do.

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