In post 9/11,Iraq war world Americans are incresingly apprehensive of wars, massive spending adventures abroad and enhanced gropings/police state at home. For 77%, gas price is biggest issue for 2012 election.
I put chances of Israel attacking Iran at 0%.
All bark, no bite, fears of a rain of retaliation.
I put chances of US starting a war with Iran at 0% also.
Whatever 1-5% chance there was of Israeli lobby activists in US pulling it off using plant Obama, Andrew Adler killed it.
Regardless of the reasons, where do you places the chances?