Some good news in a sea of negativity -- Trio of polls show that Ron Paul is most viable Romney-alternative versus Obama
The State Column | Thursday, March 15, 2012
The Ron Paul 2012 Presidential Campaign issued the following press release Wednesday:
2012 Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul polls better against President Barack Obama in a head-to-head matchup than both of his Mitt Romney-alternative rivals, according to a recent Bloomberg News national poll.
The Bloomberg finding follows a recent Rasmussen survey showing Paul to be the most competitive Romney alternative, and a recent PPP survey of Pennsylvania voters that reveals Paul to be stronger in a head-to-head matchup with Obama than Romney or Newt Gingrich.
The Bloomberg national poll found that Ron Paul would receive 43 percent of the vote to President Obama’s 48 percent in a head-to-head matchup. Paul’s outcome in that scenario is significantly better than Rick Santorum’s 6 percentage point loss, and far better than Gingrich’s 11-point defeat if the election were held today. A strong 48 percent those polled responded that Paul and Gingrich should remain in the race, further evidence that the race for the Republican nomination is far from over in the minds of voters.
Another positive sign for Ron Paul’s candidacy as the Romney alternative is that Paul ties Romney at the top of the field among voters with a “very favorable” feeling toward Republican contenders. Further, Paul has the lowest “very unfavorable” numbers at 16 percent, whereas the percentage of Americans viewing the other candidates very unfavorably is at 22 for Romney, 25 percent for Santorum, with Gingrich and Obama tied at 30 percent.
According to a recent PPP survey of Pennsylvania voters, Ron Paul polls stronger against Barack Obama than presumed frontrunner Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. Paul fares 1 percentage point better than Romney when matched against the sitting President. However, Paul fares decisively better than nominee Newt Gingrich, who would lose the swing state contest by a worrisome 12 percentage points.
While Rick Santorum does poll strongest in the Keystone State, he still fails to prove he can win his home state, a troubling fact for conservatives when Santorum would lose to Obama by 3 percentage points nationally, according to the recent Rasmussen survey of voters, mentioned below.
Also notable is that twice as many Pennsylvanians hold an unfavorable view of Mitt Romney than hold a positive one, indicating serious ground to make up for in the short time after hypothetically clinching the nomination.
Another high obstacle for Romney to overcome is in reversing negative trends. For instance, Obama has managed to turn a 2-percentage point deficit among independent voters into a 51 to 38 lead against Romney. The percentage of those holding a positive impression of Romney has decreased, resulting in a 9-point increase in those viewing him unfavorably. Only Gingrich is worse off, with 67 percent of Pennsylvanians viewing the former House Speaker unfavorably.
This is adding to the recent Rasmussen survey which also showed that among alternatives to establishment-moderate Mitt Romney, Ron Paul is the most competitive when matched against the incumbent President. Paul is statistically tied with President Obama with a strong 41 percent to Obama’s 42 percent, and outperforms faux Romney alternatives Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.
The Rasmussen survey also found that as Republican nominee, Rick Santorum would lose the White House with 43 percent to Obama’s 46 percent, while Newt Gingrich would give it away with a six-point 46 to 40 percent landslide victory for Obama.
“Recent polls demonstrate that Ron Paul is in a dead-heat with President Obama in the general election, outperforming establishment-moderate Mitt Romney in a crucial swing-state like Pennsylvania. Numbers don’t lie. Ron Paul is the most electable conservative alternative to Romney,” said Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton.
The Bloomberg National Poll was based on telephone interviews with 1,002 adults ages 18 or older, with a full sample margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. To view the Bloomberg Poll, please click here.
The PPP poll results are based on telephone surveys of 689 Pennsylvania voters and have a +/- 3.7-percentage point error margin. To view the PPP poll, please click here.
The Rasmussen poll results are based on telephone surveys of 1,500 likely voters and have a +/- 3-percentage point margin of error.
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