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Thread: RCP Texas Poll

  1. #31
    Member Keith and stuff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Ruffneck View Post
    Giuliani won New York in 08?
    He wasn't running.

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  3. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul4Prez View Post
    Santorum isn't doing well because of his brilliant person-to-person campaigning. He's doing well because conservative "thought leaders" on the radio, online, and in the churches decided that Santorum was the only remaining conservative alternative to Romney who was adequately militaristic for their tastes.
    It certainly started that way. Dude straight up pounded the ground in Iowa; I can't stand the man, but credit where it's due. He did the same thing in Alabama last week. He was behind in the polls, but he hit every rib shack and took every interview in the state...it paid off.
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  4. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gravik View Post
    Now Frothy is in the lead....

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-1598.html

    Poll Date Sample Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul Spread
    RCP Average 3/11 - 3/13 -- 32.5 29.5 19.5 8.5 Santorum +3.0

    Santorum: 32.5
    Romney 29.5
    Gingrich: 19.5
    Paul: 8.5


    WTF?!?!?!?!
    Seems "right". Santorum over Romney in Texas. Would like to see Ron Paul higher.
    It falls in line with everything else that's going on. Santorum got a bump from AL, MS, presumably, or the results reflected what people thought on Tuesday in AL, MS.
    The primary is over 2 months away. <1144

  5. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul4Prez View Post
    Santorum isn't doing well because of his brilliant person-to-person campaigning. He's doing well because conservative "thought leaders" on the radio, online, and in the churches decided that Santorum was the only remaining conservative alternative to Romney who was adequately militaristic for their tastes.
    Santorum is a Social Conservative, and Social Conservatives are popular in the middle of the country. He's Huckabee without bands around his stomach and a bunch of pardoned murderers. Huckabee did pretty well even with those problems.

    Santorum isn't the one getting tons of money from Goldman Sachs. That would be Romney and Obama.

  6. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul4Prez View Post
    Ron Paul is not doing well in the South -- too many neocons. He does the best in the West, which unfortunately is also Romney's stronghold, and the Midwest, which is Santorum's best area.
    In theory, Paul should do well in Montana. And West River South Dakota, where there are ranchers. In South Dakota they break up the state for political analysis purposes into East River and West River. East River is more Democrat, Farmers, Sioux Falls. West River is more Republican, Ranchers, Rapid City. Romney does well in the West where there are Mormons, and that's just about it. If it's the Rocky Mountain region, or the Plains, or anything beyond the immediate west coast, Romney doesn't do well, unless there are Mormons.

    We got 25% in Montana in 2008. It's a caucus. There seem to be complicated rules there as well, probably making our life more difficult. We might want to get on the central committee or something there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCaliforniaLife View Post
    It's the republican and media defamation of Ron Paul. Bush basically ran on the same kind of politics that Ron Paul did before Bush lifted his cover on his neo-conservativism. Non-intervention, sound economics, etc. Now they want to make non-intervention seem crazy yet they VOTED FOR IT back in 2000. All I can say is, "Would Jesus support these wars?" - No.
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    In the 2008 primary, Ron Paul received over 1.2 million votes. If each of those people convert only 5 others to vote for Ron, we can win the nomination.

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  8. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul4Prez View Post
    Ron Paul is not doing well in the South -- too many neocons. He does the best in the West, which unfortunately is also Romney's stronghold, and the Midwest, which is Santorum's best area.
    You know, we are keeping up with this stuff. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...port-by-Region

    It is subject to change but so far it is... Mid-Atlantic, Northern New England, New England, Northeast, West Coast, Pacific Northwest, East Coast and so on. West Coast is #5 so far as regions go.
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  9. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by BUSHLIED View Post
    SIGH: None of this is going to happen. Ron is not going to change and the campaign isn't either (the campaign is basically over) and that was clear from day 1 of 2012....could you imagine Ron giving a speech at the RNC Convention in Tampa...if he manages to get one, please, please, make him write it down and read it...save us all the embarrassment.

    My prediction is that he doesn't break 20% in any primary besides perhaps PA and SD...I think MT has the last caucus where Ron could get a win there...but that's about it. Be prepared for 9-11% in the remaining States...be prepared for more large rallies with the same stump speech.
    We did well in PA in 08. The election was decided already. We got 16%. This time around we have Santorum, who is from PA. That's going to make a difference. Ron Paul is also from PA, but not as much as Santorum. And Gingrich is also from PA. So, I dunno there. In 2008, Ron Paul was pretty mainstream and popular with the younger set when I was there. The popular local rock bands were supporting him, playing popular shows in the big venue, etc etc. And they weren't supporting Obama. There were a bunch of counties, basically from A/B/E, Reading, Lancaster, Harrisburg, York where Ron Paul pulled 20-25%, that where the popular local rock bands who were playing the shows were from.

    We really should be looking as much at <1144 as anything else. We should be making decisions where the payoff is keeping Romney <1144.

    I just dunno about PA. I think those factors that caused a good result were unique to the situation in 2008. And I think spending time and effort and money to get votes where the guy who is likely to win is not the guy you want to try hardest to keep <1144 is not really the way to go. I really SHOULD put something together, but not because it's really a good idea at this time, strategically. I should contact the meetup groups, and see if they want something. If they do, I'll see if I can pull it together. Or, I won't do that at all.

    If we're looking at picking up delegates here and there, there are 24 proportional at large delegates in Kentucky. I would hope Rand could help get delegates there.

  10. #39

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    what are the current numbers for illinois?
    if romney wins illinois he will bounce right back in other states

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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Ruffneck View Post
    Giuliani won New York in 08?
    He dropped out before NY voted.

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    If Paul's not getting the popular votes, it might as well be Santorum. That will increase the likelihood of a brokered convention in the fall. If that happens, at the very least, Romney or Santorum will need to court the Ron Paul delegates in order to get their votes (assuming we get to the convention with hundreds of liberty-minded delegates).
    Turning the GOP into a party of liberty will not be a quick race, it will be a marathon.

  13. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by abruzz0 View Post
    GOP retort: "YEA BUT IT CHANGED AFTER DA 9/11'Z HAPPUNED, NOW DUH ONLY THANG DAT MAIKZ ME HAPPY IS BOMBIN MOOSLUMZ N POUNDIN BACK SOME BEERS N STUFF. SANTORUM'S A GUD KRIST'CHUN MAN. HE GON' FIX ERRTHANG, CUZ JEESUZ GONNA KUM ON DOWN N HELP HIM BEAT DEM LIBZ AND GAYS!!!!!"
    Do you think this helps anything? ^

    Quote Originally Posted by The_Ruffneck View Post
    what are the current numbers for illinois?
    if romney wins illinois he will bounce right back in other states
    Actually, he hasn't really been getting much bumpage from his victories.
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  14. #43

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    What is popular is not always right, and what is right is not always popular.

  15. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    I know...I know...
    but we should all know better by now than to give the general electorate the benefit of the doubt that they are well-informed.
    They don't want or need to be well-informed. This is because they are happy with the status quo.

    Dr. Paul's campaign has been a tremendous success in spreading the message of freedom. However, the Presidency was never the goal. Freedom is the goal. If we want freedom, the next thing we need to do is recognize that most of this country does not want freedom. Once we accept that, the ideal solution becomes crystal clear.

    Secession please.
    The Matrix is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy. But when you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system and that makes them our enemy. You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it.

  16. #45

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    These numbers don't surprise me at all. We're home of GW and Rick Perry...what did you expect? Ron Paul only enjoys a small core group among his district and Austin style libertarians.

    I'd like to take charge in Texas and try to reverse these numbers, but, honestly, it's hard to be motivated when the campaign doesn't seem to be motivated. Texas is a large state and we need organization early. My understanding is there isn't even an official state coordinator yet? That's what I was told by a cousin who contacted the campaign and asked the volunteer.
    "Government created nothing. The only thing Government can do is steal and rob people with a gun and forcibly transfer wealth from one person to another...Governments are always destructive in the production of wealth." - Dr. Ron Paul

  17. #46

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    there is a very strong GOP establishment presence in Texas, not really surprised by these results.

  18. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbone717 View Post
    It is popular. If you listen to the other candidates rhetoric they are calling for lower spending, lower taxes, less regulation etc. As we know their definition of such differs from Paul's platform, but the talking points are similar. Momentum plays a huge factor in a primary race, and sadly we do not have any momentum whatsoever. The campaign and candidate needed to do something significant at some point during the campaign to insert themselves back into this race, and nothing was done.

    But the good news is that the libertarian wing will win contests this fall and we will increase our influence in the party. We will have far more victories this year than losses. The big race is almost over for us, but we are still doing very well in many other races.
    there's nothing new about this: the GOP has been the party of "lower this and less that" for as long as i can remember.

    GOP candidate X: "NO income/inheritance/capital gains taxes? now wait a minute! that's plum crazy. but, i will offer you LOWER taxes than my opponent."

    GOP candidate Y: "NO compulsory schooling? what is ya, ignunt?! ...but, unlike my opponent, i will allow you to pack your kid's lunch."

    The GOP has been the party of antithesis and synthesis for as long as i can remember.

    Show me a true traditional American conservative, and i'll show you someone disgusted with the GOP.

    Show me a GOP party hack, and i'll show you a neocon trotskyite scumbag.

  19. #48

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    Quote Originally Posted by Voluntary Man View Post
    there's nothing new about this: the GOP has been the party of "lower this and less that" for as long as i can remember.

    GOP candidate X: "NO income/inheritance/capital gains taxes? now wait a minute! that's plum crazy. but, i will offer you LOWER taxes than my opponent."

    GOP candidate Y: "NO compulsory schooling? what is ya, ignunt?! ...but, unlike my opponent, i will allow you to pack your kid's lunch."

    The GOP has been the party of antithesis and synthesis for as long as i can remember.

    Show me a true traditional American conservative, and i'll show you someone disgusted with the GOP.

    Show me a GOP party hack, and i'll show you a neocon trotskyite scumbag.
    While I am quite young (under 30), I can agree with this. As a fourth generation Republican (or what I was supposed to be anyway haha), I heard this many times growing up from parents and grandparents. There's alot of small government talk, but when it comes to the walk, there's alot of compromise. They've been "Ronpauling" for decades.
    "Government created nothing. The only thing Government can do is steal and rob people with a gun and forcibly transfer wealth from one person to another...Governments are always destructive in the production of wealth." - Dr. Ron Paul

  20. #49

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    The actual campaigning doesn't do much for votes since turnouts are relatively small. It's the media coverage that comes from appearances that makes the difference. If the media isn't going to cover the appearances Ron does make, and they generally don't, then no point in campaigning his ass off and spending remaining resources on things that won't generate many votes without media participation.
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  21. #50

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    people are idiots in general....they want to vote for the one that is leading so they can say they voted for the winner. Even though we know frothy has absolutely NO chance of beating obama....
    "Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it."
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  22. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by puppetmaster View Post
    people are idiots in general....they want to vote for the one that is leading so they can say they voted for the winner. Even though we know frothy has absolutely NO chance of beating obama....
    How quickly elephants forget.

    Hasn't everyone noticed that none of the GOP candidates ever invokes the name [that must not be spoken]? Whatever happened to Dubya? How many of us saw those vapid "d'ya miss me, yet?" billboard signs, featuring 43's smirking mug? Did some clever pollster finally figure out that nobody does miss Poppy's legacy, Temporary? ...well, almost nobody; my theory is that Saton rum's voter base is composed almost entirely of that portion of the GOP who actually do miss the Shrub-ster -- that portion of the electorate who believe that we are still part of the British Empire, that Israel is the 51st state, that New Coke was an improvement, and that 9/11 was the new 7/4.

    The talking heads may be remaining mum on the 'W' word, these days, but if [please, Merciful Father forbid it] Saton rum wins the nomination and [gulp] The Whitehouse, he will have done so on the coattails of [he whose name must not be spoken], and if it were possible, Saton rum would be an even worse [gulp] president than .... that other guy.
    Last edited by Voluntary Man; 03-16-2012 at 10:35 PM.

  23. #52

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    Quote Originally Posted by Voluntary Man View Post
    How quickly elephants forget.

    Hasn't everyone noticed that none of the GOP candidates ever invokes the name [that must not be spoken]? Whatever happened to Dubya? How many of us saw those vapid "d'ya miss me, yet?" billboard signs, featuring 43's smirking mug? Did some clever pollster finally figure out that nobody does miss Poppy's legacy, Temporary? ...well, almost nobody; my theory is that Saton rum's voter base is composed almost entirely of that portion of the GOP who actual do miss the Shrub-ster -- that portion of the electorate who believe that we are still part of the British Empire, that Israel is the 51st state, that New Coke was an improvement, and that 9/11 was the new 7/4.

    The talking heads may be remaining mum on the 'W' word, these days, but if [please, Merciful Father forbid it] Saton rum wins the nomination and [gulp] The Whitehouse, he will have done so on the coattails of [he whose name must not be spoken], and if it were possible, Saton rum would be an even worse [gulp] president than .... that other guy.
    Goldman Sachs is the #1 Contributor to 1) Romney AND 2) Obama.

    Goldman Sachs, THE FED, the international banker elites, etc etc etc WANT ROMNEY. Those are the people who we're fighting against.

    We aren't fighting against social conservatives, like Santorum. Romney is "the guy" for our enemies. George Bush was Skull and Bones. Santorum was Penn State. And Dickinson College School of Law. And Pitt MBA. A socially conservative Pennsylvanian. A nice Pennsyvania resume. Romney's dad ran for President 44 years ago. Romney is elite. Was it 2004 that both Bush and Kerry were both Skull and Bones - the same tiny secret society in Yale? Santorum is preferable. If you can clearly determine that CNN wants a candidate, that is clearly a candidate you don't want. And CNN wants Romney.

  24. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by parocks View Post
    Goldman Sachs is the #1 Contributor to 1) Romney AND 2) Obama.

    Goldman Sachs, THE FED, the international banker elites, etc etc etc WANT ROMNEY. Those are the people who we're fighting against.

    We aren't fighting against social conservatives, like Santorum. Romney is "the guy" for our enemies. George Bush was Skull and Bones. Santorum was Penn State. And Dickinson College School of Law. And Pitt MBA. A socially conservative Pennsylvanian. A nice Pennsyvania resume. Romney's dad ran for President 44 years ago. Romney is elite. Was it 2004 that both Bush and Kerry were both Skull and Bones - the same tiny secret society in Yale? Santorum is preferable. If you can clearly determine that CNN wants a candidate, that is clearly a candidate you don't want. And CNN wants Romney.
    Goldman Sachs, THE FED, the international banker elites, don't give a damn who gets the Oval Office, as long as it isn't Dr. Paul.
    The Matrix is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy. But when you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system and that makes them our enemy. You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it.

  25. #54

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    Quote Originally Posted by bxm042 View Post
    Goldman Sachs, THE FED, the international banker elites, don't give a damn who gets the Oval Office, as long as it isn't Dr. Paul.
    Strongly disagree. Yes, it's true that they don't want Paul. But, always, they want both candidates, Republican and Democrat, to be owned by them.

    And the elites are exactly who Ron Paul is fighting against. Romney is the choice of the elites.

  26. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by parocks View Post
    Strongly disagree. Yes, it's true that they don't want Paul. But, always, they want both candidates, Republican and Democrat, to be owned by them.

    And the elites are exactly who Ron Paul is fighting against. Romney is the choice of the elites.
    Romney may be a preference (up for debate), but otherwise no, they don't care. All but Paul keep the gravy train going.
    The Matrix is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy. But when you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system and that makes them our enemy. You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it.

  27. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by parocks View Post
    Goldman Sachs is the #1 Contributor to 1) Romney AND 2) Obama.

    Goldman Sachs, THE FED, the international banker elites, etc etc etc WANT ROMNEY. Those are the people who we're fighting against.

    We aren't fighting against social conservatives, like Santorum. Romney is "the guy" for our enemies. George Bush was Skull and Bones. Santorum was Penn State. And Dickinson College School of Law. And Pitt MBA. A socially conservative Pennsylvanian. A nice Pennsyvania resume. Romney's dad ran for President 44 years ago. Romney is elite. Was it 2004 that both Bush and Kerry were both Skull and Bones - the same tiny secret society in Yale? Santorum is preferable. If you can clearly determine that CNN wants a candidate, that is clearly a candidate you don't want. And CNN wants Romney.
    Frankly, i don't care that Satonrum's resume more closely resembles Bill Clinton's (minus the Rhodes Scholarship and ivy league education, of course). And, I wasn't talking about the men behind the curtain that back each candidate; i was talking about the voters who support them. Besides, I really don't feel like debating whether Mittens or Saton is worse for America. Nutant and Saton are irrevokably on my not-a-chance-in-hell list. The ONLY reason Mitt isn't on it, YET, is because i'm waiting to see what Ron says/does (and i'll probably soon regret it). Are you saying that there exists in your imagination a circumstance under which you could possibly conceive of voting for Saton? [shudder]

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