Our district is around 800,000 registered voters.
Conservative district. Primary IS election.
Open primary (Republicans and Democrats can vote)
Democrats hate the incumbent. First chance in 20 years democrats can beat incumbent Goodlatte (first republican primary). Karen is the anti-goodlatte vote.
Many Republicans view goodlatte as sellout. Authored SOPA (with Lamar), raised debt ceiling at least 7x, funded Obamacare & planned parenthood, for all other positions refer to partison RINO (No child left behind, medicare part D, all war votes, etc)
Karen is highly favored by district tea-parties, active RP crowd, and several unit chairs.
Estimated votes needed to win June 12 primary: 20-30k (<3%)
It's completely a GOTV boots on the ground game.
Current incumbent strategy: Ignore primary (which means no GOTV), show face more frequently in district.
No major polling that I'm aware of has been done. She is highly favored among straw polls conducted by local tea-parties, political activist groups etc.
My personal opinion is it's one of the best candidates/chances we the liberty movement have. It is also possible IF the larger RP movement would rally around her.
A handful of jobless/mobile/hardworking activists could push it over. We could also utilize any hands from the larger RP movement willing to work from a distance (phone-from-home etc)
Feel free to message me for more info or to talk on the phone.