Oil price, gas price, stocks, unemployment and bubbles - looking like 2008 again

[smithtg]

I did some research and looking at trends with the S&P, gas price and oil. I read some articles too that suggest 4 buck gas is the breaking point. I personally think we willl that before June and into the summer. This looks just like 2008 and then wham the stock market bubble burst and we got TARP and all the other government stupidity from that.

This time the recession (which never really ended) will be deeper and unemployment will start to look like Greece. I read a good article yesterday about how the MSM and gov't have spun the unemployment numbers in ways that are just downright stupid (but make it look good)

http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/WorkB.html


Obama will either pull off an October surprise and 'save us all' or this election will be dirty and life changing.

thoughts on 2012 versus 2008?

more people are seeing this train wreak coming, but not that many more IMO

If things are taking a dive by the GOP convention, we need to fight like hell to get RP nominated

[qh4dotcom]

The Austrian economists are not predicting a bubble to burst that will bring prices down...they were predicting real estate prices to collapse in 2008 and that brought prices down on so many commodities. On the contrary, they are predicting the next bubble to pop will increase prices.

[Romulus]

I think you might be right...

[smithtg]

The Austrian economists are not predicting a bubble to burst that will bring prices down...they were predicting real estate prices to collapse in 2008 and that brought prices down on so many commodities. On the contrary, they are predicting the next bubble to pop will increase prices.

thats true implosion/SHTF if prices keep going up with no ceiling. stock prices will still tank because of robotraders that will win on the way down

[cubical]

The Austrian economists are not predicting a bubble to burst that will bring prices down...they were predicting real estate prices to collapse in 2008 and that brought prices down on so many commodities. On the contrary, they are predicting the next bubble to pop will increase prices.

Well deflation/inflation is relative. There could very well be deflation, but most Austrians believe it will be met with fed money printing, thus it won't last long. We are beginning another artificial business cycle right now. Industy is getting signals all around that there is plenty of savings in the economy, when in reality we are maxed out with debt and as soon as the fed takes away the punch bowl, down we will go. If the fed "never" takes it away we will turn into Zimbabwe.

[Brian4Liberty]

This looks just like 2008 and then wham the stock market bubble burst and we got TARP and all the other government stupidity from that.
...
thoughts on 2012 versus 2008?

more people are seeing this train wreak coming, but not that many more IMO

Yep, people are talking about this... may become self-fulfilling prophesy.

Near term stock market deflation is very possible.

[Brian4Liberty]

bump

[awake]

The "recovery" that people are witness to is completely Ben Bernanke made. Once the inflation kicks in, his magic trick will be busted along with those washed out by much much higher interest rates. The false political recovery is just that - a lie. An election cycle doping and duping of the less aware people in our society.

[smithtg]

people who believe the economy is related to the stock market prices are dumb and will be duped again when the market crashes and the job losses are worse than 2008

if the recovery was so good I wonder why I havent seen a raise in 4 years

[Zippyjuan]

Stocks always run ahead of the economy- they are usually priced based not on current value but on future expected values. And when the economy does actually begin to accelerate, stocks will start to rise more slowly- the gains having already been priced into them. Stocks don't necessarily reflect where the economy is right now- but where investors think it will be. They buy a stock becasue they think it will be worth more in the future- or sell it because they don't think it will be worth more.

The value of stocks and the price of oil don't really tell you much about how the economy is doing. Gas prices are up enough for people to complain about (like winter weather) but not enough to dramatically change their behavior such as driving a lot less or buying a better mileage car.