MUST SEE VIDEO: Ron Paul Winning Nomination - Delegate Doubters Please Watch

[opinionatedfool]

Please share this with all the delegate doubters you know.

I wish the Josh or one of the moderators would send out a mass email to all the forum members explaining the delegate strategy, realistic delegate estimates, and videos like this. I think we can pull this off, but I'm really concerned about all the people who are feeling defeated and have left the movement. We need to bring them back!!!!

[VinnyG]

I still just don't get how you see this turning out...even in the off chance it happens.

Is it that you really think Romney's supporters will accept defeat and vote for Ron Paul, even though they will feel that he stole the nomination? Because you know how the motto here is "Romney can't win without us"? well, Ron Paul can't win without Romney's supporters, who are more numerous.

So I still really don't see ANY upside to this, but plenty of downside. The BEST case scenario is a trouncing by Obama in the general election, which will hurt Ron Paul's reputation. And the worst is, that same trouncing, and the revenge that the GOP will take on Rand Paul and all Liberty candidates

[opinionatedfool]

I still just don't get how you see this turning out...even in the off chance it happens.

Is it that you really think Romney's supporters will accept defeat and vote for Ron Paul, even though they will feel that he stole the nomination? Because you know how the motto here is "Romney can't win without us"? well, Ron Paul can't win without Romney's supporters, who are more numerous.

So I still really don't see ANY upside to this, but plenty of downside. The BEST case scenario is a trouncing by Obama in the general election, which will hurt Ron Paul's reputation. And the worst is, that same trouncing, and the revenge that the GOP will take on Rand Paul and all Liberty candidates

Did you even watch the freaking video before you made this comment? Please watch the video if you haven't. I keep seeing you around, spouting off your opinion, but you never really take the time to understand what people are saying.

[opinionatedfool]

.

I just checked your post history and pretty much every one of your posts is something against the delegate strategy and something for Romney. There is probably a Romney forum out there with two or three members. Why don't you go and join it and get the heck off of this one if you love Romney so much.

[tbone717]

Can you summarize the points? It is a lengthy broadcast.

The problem that I see with the delegate strategy as it is described on RPF is that it is contingent upon unlikely scenarios that need to occur.

1) Romney does not accumulate enough delegates (bound and unbound) to total 1144 to win on the first ballot.
2) Ron Paul supporters make up 1144 of the 2286 delegates at the RNC.

Both of the above need to occur in order for Paul to win the nomination at the convention. I am not a statistician, but I would imagine that the chances of both scenarios occurring is in the low single digits.

Personally, I think the best that we can hope for at this point is that Paul has enough delegates at the convention to have influence over the VP nomination and/or the platform. This is essentially what Benton was alluding to in the interview he gave on MSNBC on the 11th.

[kathy88]

Considering you spend an awful lot of time bashing the campaign why would you be spouting what Benton said now?

[tbone717]

Considering you spend an awful lot of time bashing the campaign why would you be spouting what Benton said now?

I think the campaign has done a terrible job at not reacting to the ongoing changes in the primary season. I've been very critical of them for that. But also note, that I was a big cheerleader for the campaign up till around the time of the four caucus states that were lost.

However, when the say something that seems to show which direction they are taking, I will take them at their word. I have never called them liars, I just think they have been doing a poor job at selling the message to the average voter.

[opinionatedfool]

Can you summarize the points? It is a lengthy broadcast.

The problem that I see with the delegate strategy as it is described on RPF is that it is contingent upon unlikely scenarios that need to occur.

1) Romney does not accumulate enough delegates (bound and unbound) to total 1144 to win on the first ballot.
2) Ron Paul supporters make up 1144 of the 2286 delegates at the RNC.

Both of the above need to occur in order for Paul to win the nomination at the convention. I am not a statistician, but I would imagine that the chances of both scenarios occurring is in the low single digits.

Personally, I think the best that we can hope for at this point is that Paul has enough delegates at the convention to have influence over the VP nomination and/or the platform. This is essentially what Benton was alluding to in the interview he gave on MSNBC on the 11th.

Watch the video when you get a chance. If more Ron Paul supporters get on the band wagon and become delegates we can do this. Ron Paul will probably take the majority of delegates in IA, MN, CO, NV, ME, WA, AK, and maybe ID and ND. He will also pick up more delegates who are bound to other candidates. There is strong evidence that he is doing quite well in this area. If you want an example of this, search for the recent stories out of Georgia. I don't think Ron Paul is interested in a VP slot. Benton said they were tossing around ideas. I think Ron Paul should go for the convention, and if he doesn't do well there he should go third party.

[opinionatedfool]

I think the campaign has done a terrible job at not reacting to the ongoing changes in the primary season. I've been very critical of them for that. But also note, that I was a big cheerleader for the campaign up till around the time of the four caucus states that were lost.

However, when the say something that seems to show which direction they are taking, I will take them at their word. I have never called them liars, I just think they have been doing a poor job at selling the message to the average voter.

How did he lose the caucus states? Do you not understand that it's delegates that matter? Have you done enough research on how the delegates work? No, Ron Paul didn't lose the first four caucus states. He most definitely won them. Santorum supposedly won the popular vote, but Ron Paul will most likely get most or all of the delegates. Please consider the facts without bias.

[Algorres]

He is right when he says we will not fall in line. He is wrong when he says Ron will go third party. Ron will not be able to get on the ballots as a third party candidate since he was on so many as a republican. Now for the good news if Dr. Paul leaves the convention in Tampa without the nomination he can put the full weight of his supporters behind another candidate, Gary Johnson. Johnson + Paul can equal a win.

[unknown]

Is it that you really think Romney's supporters will accept defeat and vote for Ron Paul, even though they will feel that he stole the nomination?

Yes.

Ask any Republican and they'll tell you "anyone but Obama". Its a Republican mantra. They will without a doubt vote for Ron Paul over Obama, not even a question.

No one is voting for Romney because they like Romney. Many Republicans actually hate Romney. They are voting for Romney because they have been media brainwashed to assume that he will be the nominee and because they think that he has the best shot at beating Obama, which is incorrect.

Ron Paul has the best shot because Ron Paul has the greatest support among Independents and young voters, more so than even Obama. The support of these two groups is REQUIRED to win in November.

[tbone717]

Watch the video when you get a chance. If more Ron Paul supporters get on the band wagon and become delegates we can do this. Ron Paul will probably take the majority of delegates in IA, MN, CO, NV, ME, WA, AK, and maybe ID and ND. He will also pick up more delegates who are bound to other candidates. There is strong evidence that he is doing quite well in this area. If you want an example of this, search for the recent stories out of Georgia. I don't think Ron Paul is interested in a VP slot. Benton said they were tossing around ideas. I think Ron Paul should go for the convention, and if he doesn't do well there he should go third party.

Morning is best for me to listen to this, so I will try and do so tomorrow morning. I agree that he is doing well at the county level - that is awesome and exactly what we need to build on for the future. I still have a hard time assuming that he will get 50% plus one of all available RNC delegates and that Romney will not secure enough first ballot delegates.

And regarding the VP slot, I don't think Paul wants the slot. I think he wants to influence the slot like Buchanan did in 96. I really do not see him going third party though. While for many here it is a dream come true, a lot of my folks on the ground here locally tell me they would not actively support a move like that. And I live in an area of PA that has a fairly strong libertarian Republican contingency - heck our State Senator is one of the best libertarians in the country and won 72% of the vote. Activism takes a lot of time and money. People aren't willing to commit their time and money to a 3rd party run by Paul when there is so much other work that needs to be done.

[ctiger2]

Now for the good news if Dr. Paul leaves the convention in Tampa without the nomination he can put the full weight of his supporters behind another candidate, Gary Johnson. Johnson + Paul can equal a win.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

[opinionatedfool]

He is right when he says we will not fall in line. He is wrong when he says Ron will go third party. Ron will not be able to get on the ballots as a third party candidate since he was on so many as a republican. Now for the good news if Dr. Paul leaves the convention in Tampa without the nomination he can put the full weight of his supporters behind another candidate, Gary Johnson. Johnson + Paul can equal a win.

The experts on here can correct me if I'm wrong, but the sore loser rules don't apply for national presidential elections. I don't think it matters if he was on the ballots as republican.

[tbone717]

The experts on here can correct me if I'm wrong, but the sore loser rules don't apply for national presidential elections. I don't think it matters if he was on the ballots as republican.

You are correct. Sore loser laws do not apply. The main issue is filing deadlines, which I believe most will have passed by then.

[opinionatedfool]

Yes.

Ask any Republican and they'll tell you "anyone but Obama". Its a Republican mantra. They will without a doubt vote for Ron Paul over Obama, not even a question.

No one is voting for Romney because they like Romney. Many Republicans actually hate Romney. They are voting for Romney because they have been media brainwashed to assume that he will be the nominee and because they think that he has the best shot at beating Obama, which is incorrect.

Ron Paul has the best shot because Ron Paul has the greatest support among Independents and young voters, more so than even Obama. The support of these two groups is REQUIRED to win in November.

Very well said. Thanks for being a non-defeatist!!!! +rep

[PolicyReader]

Can you summarize the points? It is a lengthy broadcast.

The problem that I see with the delegate strategy as it is described on RPF is that it is contingent upon unlikely scenarios that need to occur.

1) Romney does not accumulate enough delegates (bound and unbound) to total 1144 to win on the first ballot.
2) Ron Paul supporters make up 1144 of the 2286 delegates at the RNC.

Both of the above need to occur in order for Paul to win the nomination at the convention. I am not a statistician, but I would imagine that the chances of both scenarios occurring is in the low single digits.

Personally, I think the best that we can hope for at this point is that Paul has enough delegates at the convention to have influence over the VP nomination and/or the platform. This is essentially what Benton was alluding to in the interview he gave on MSNBC on the 11th.

If case #2 occurs then case 1# occurs by default (2286 - 1144 = 1142) so functionally there's really only one case presented there.
Second both 1&2 ignore case 3 (which is more likely than either of them) that no candidate has a clear majority going into Tampa.
Even Nate Silver's most pro Romney projections have Romney not pulling that number down until after the final states come in. And Silvers numbers get Romney through the gate only by assuming that the current AP projection is the actual delegate count which is demonstrably false.

There's quite a bit of anti-Romney sentiment out there and it's pulling votes and support from him, there will be delegates at the RNC who have distaste for Romney and aren't Paul delegates. Even if current trends continue we wouldn't need all of those delegates to secure the nomination only part of them which is a legitimate chance (no numbers on this because there are too many variables to provide any semblance of accuracy at this early stage).

Based on the projections of Mr. Silver even a 5% shift or under-performance by Romney would result in him requiring two-thirds of the unbound & super delegate pool if he is to reach eleven forty four.

It's also worth noting that other political annalists like those at Real Clear Politics (and if memory serves Politico as well) have projections out which are strikingly less favorable to Mr. Romney. And all of these projections reach their conclusion without applying any accounting for the Paul delegate strategy or including even a mention of things like Clark County et al the delegate race is a zero sum game and if Paul takes any delegates away from Willard then his mathematical chances become even lessor than those political projections. Presuming that Santorum and Gingrich supporters who have fought and voted against Willard throughout this race will suddenly embrace him with open arm at the RNC is groundless. Some of them almost certainly will if their own candidate goes out, just as by the same token some will not. Right now how those individuals will brake is simply unknown because there are so many factors still up in the air. If it comes down to a second ballot (which more and more people are acknowledging is a real possibility, some annalists are even going so far as to say a probability at this point) there will be a great deal of question about who is the strongest candidate against Obama, who has the most loyal support (matters for several reasons), and who is the least distasteful of a switch. While we know that Newt, Willard, and Rick are more or less the same on their policies most voters do not see them that way and that will play a role as well (besides while he may play ball we all know Newt has an ego and he has a personal grudge in this race against Romney which is yet another reason not to just assume that Willard will gain support by default).

[opinionatedfool]

Morning is best for me to listen to this, so I will try and do so tomorrow morning. I agree that he is doing well at the county level - that is awesome and exactly what we need to build on for the future. I still have a hard time assuming that he will get 50% plus one of all available RNC delegates and that Romney will not secure enough first ballot delegates.

And regarding the VP slot, I don't think Paul wants the slot. I think he wants to influence the slot like Buchanan did in 96. I really do not see him going third party though. While for many here it is a dream come true, a lot of my folks on the ground here locally tell me they would not actively support a move like that. And I live in an area of PA that has a fairly strong libertarian Republican contingency - heck our State Senator is one of the best libertarians in the country and won 72% of the vote. Activism takes a lot of time and money. People aren't willing to commit their time and money to a 3rd party run by Paul when there is so much other work that needs to be done.

Keeping everyone motivated is critical to the delegate movement. I think we can pull it off IF we keep people motivated enough to become delegates. The frequent posters, like you and me, are the opinion leaders on this forum. Most people don't post, instead they read what the opinion leaders are saying. If we sound defeatist, we get other people to become defeatist. It's our job to keep people focused on the finish line. I'm all for being realistic, but I think it's realistic to think that the wonderful people who are Ron Paul supporters can pull this off if we pull together and focus on winning this thing no matter how hard it gets. There is no way we'll win this thing if all the supporters become complacent. The harder the fight, the more dedication it will take to win!

[opinionatedfool]

You are correct. Sore loser laws do not apply. The main issue is filing deadlines, which I believe most will have passed by then.

Do you have a list of state filing deadlines or are you guessing?

[tbone717]

If case #2 occurs then case 1# occurs by default (2286 - 1144 = 1142) so functionally there's really only one case presented there..

Actually that is incorrect. If Paul had 1144 of his people in delegate slots but 500 of them are bound to Romney for the first ballot, and Romney has the remaining number needed then he wins the nomination on the first ballot

[opinionatedfool]

Something else to remember... Supporters bound as Romney delegates can ABSTAIN during the first round of voting.

Question to the convention experts: If Romney collects 1144 delegates before all the states have gone, will there still be a convention or does he automatically win? If there is a convention, supporters bound as his delegates could abstain and keep him from getting the 1144 and then vote Ron Paul in subsequent rounds. Is this plausible?

[tbone717]

Do you have a list of state filing deadlines or are you guessing?

http://www.politics1.com/calendar.htm

A quick count, only 11 states have filing deadlines after the convention.

[opinionatedfool]

Actually that is incorrect. If Paul had 1144 of his people in delegate slots but 500 of them are bound to Romney for the first ballot, and Romney has the remaining number needed then he wins the nomination on the first ballot

Not if they abstain during the first round.

[tbone717]

Something else to remember... Supporters bound as Romney delegates can ABSTAIN during the first round of voting.

Question to the convention experts: If Romney collects 1144 delegates before all the states have gone, will there still be a convention or does he automatically win? If there is a convention, supporters bound as his delegates could abstain and keep him from getting the 1144 and then vote Ron Paul in subsequent rounds. Is this plausible?

Regarding the first point: is that confirmed or is it just forum speculation. It is my understanding that if a delegate breaks state rules, they can be removed and replaced with an alternate.

And on the second point: Yes there is always a convention. Both parties essentially use the convention as a big commercial for their candidate. However, there is serious business done there, such as the shaping of the platform, which I believe the libertarians will have a lot of influence in this time.

[opinionatedfool]

http://www.politics1.com/calendar.htm

A quick count, only 11 states have filing deadlines after the convention.

All of those look like filing deadlines for primary elections, not the general election. Am I missing something?

[tbone717]

All of those look like filing deadlines for primary elections, not the general election. Am I missing something?

I am about 90% sure the ones that state "filing deadline" are for the general. I'll look up a couple on the state's site to confirm. Give me a few minutes to look

[PaulSoHard]

Let it be heard: The GOP can't win without us. If they want to throw a curveball at Obama then bring on Ron Paul because he and Obama are COMPLETE opposites of each other.

[tbone717]

opinionatedfool

Better source: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2012/2012pdates.pdf

That's the one I originally saw. Had to go through my history

[jbauer]

ok so that shows me that there is no 3rd party run if he holds out to the convension which means its the GOP or bust

[PolicyReader]

Actually that is incorrect. If Paul had 1144 of his people in delegate slots but 500 of them are bound to Romney for the first ballot, and Romney has the remaining number needed then he wins the nomination on the first ballot

Of all my post and information that is the one thing you respond to?

Let me clarify I wasn't talking about "stealth" delegates who have infiltrated under another banner. If you are including them as part of the tally then yes both cases are technically separate however case 3 that I presented still applies and is still becoming mathematically more probable.
Read:

http://www.nolanchart.com/article945...e-working.html

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...delegate-math/

Real Clear Politics direct link

And tell me what in each of these analysis's you find to be factually unsound. (They are projections of course so there's that, but everything is right now. Beyond that I found some flaws myself but things like the AP News delegate projection being used actually helps Pauls situation rather than hurts it)

Bonus: Romneys REAL hard support