Got a major sell signal for AAPL today ... from my mom

[swissaustrian]

I've been talking to my mom on the phone today. She is 69 years old and never ever touched a computer in her life. She even got problems with a simple cell (not: smart) phone.
So the conversation goes on for a while and I'm telling her that I'm having a hard time finding good (non-mining) stocks to put some of her retirement money in and then she says:
"You know what, why don't you buy me some Apple stocks? I've talked to one of my best friends (another lady about her age) and we both think it's a great company. They're all over the news, they have to be great."

As a contrarian, I instantly took this as a major sell signal for APPL. My mom has NEVER traded stocks and has never dealt with any AAPL product and any computer or smart phone for that matter.

Remember the famous rule from the 1929 crash:

When even shoeshine boys are giving you stock tips, it’s time to sell (Joseph P. Kennedy?)

http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/...o_sell_joseph/

Don't get me wrong:
I don't want to say my mom should be compared to a shoeshine boy, but as far as stocks and technology are concerned her knowledge is at the level of such a person.

------------------

Getting a little more serious:
Recently, there have been reports about questionable accounting methods used by AAPL to inflate earnings by accounting for sales of products which aren't actually sold.
Additionally, the company is considering to use it's huge pile of cash to broaden their product portfolio which usually ends in a desaster.
EVERYONE is on one side of the trade. Literally all big fundmanagers own APPL. The trade is totally overcrowded.
APPL faces problems with their manufacturing slaves in China.

etc. there are a lot of reasons to be cautious.

iAm considering to buy some puts...

[specsaregood]

Made my first big $$ off of AAPL back in 96 or 97?....put my entire tax refund into it at around $15/share. I had just played with rhapsody on a pc and I knew they were coming back big time....

[Uriah]

Made my first big $$ off of AAPL back in 96 or 97?....put my entire tax refund into it at around $15/share. I had just played with rhapsody on a pc and I knew they were coming back big time....

I wanted to invest in apple at that time. I was involved in a young persons investment club. We had to vote and they decided against apple and went for microsoft.

[Zippyjuan]

Apple's success will make it difficult for them to continue to increase revenues at the rates which they have in the past. They won't go away certainly but long term it will be hard to match what they have been doing up until now. I remember when Sony was the hot company coming out with some cool gadget every year everybody seemed to want. Even Micosoft peaked. Apple may be there now. If Apple were to institute offering dividends, they could be more attractive as a stock in my opinion. Other investors seem to think so too: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-98b-cash.html

[specsaregood]

Apple's success will make it difficult for them to continue to increase revenues at the rates which they have in the past. They won't go away certainly but long term it will be hard to match what they have been doing up until now. I remember when Sony was the hot company coming out with some cool gadget every year everybody seemed to want. Even Micosoft peaked. Apple may be there now. If Apple were to institute offering dividends, they could be more attractive as a stock in my opinion. Other investors seem to think so too: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-98b-cash.html

Funny. They went from huge to almost irrelevent in the 80s -> 90's as well. I wouldn't be so fast to say it couldn't happen again.

[Jtorsella]

Funny. They went from huge to almost irrelevent in the 80s -> 90's as well. I wouldn't be so fast to say it couldn't happen again.

I would. Apple is the largest company in the world with about 70bn extra cash set aside for future needs. They are not going anywhere. It would take over 30 years of horrible mismanagement.

[swissaustrian]

Apple's success will make it difficult for them to continue to increase revenues at the rates which they have in the past. They won't go away certainly but long term it will be hard to match what they have been doing up until now. I remember when Sony was the hot company coming out with some cool gadget every year everybody seemed to want. Even Micosoft peaked. Apple may be there now. If Apple were to institute offering dividends, they could be more attractive as a stock in my opinion. Other investors seem to think so too: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-98b-cash.html

Using their cash for dividends would certainly be better than questionable accquisitions...

[dannno]

I like how the OP thinks.

[libertybrewcity]

Interesting thoughts, but I believe a lot of the hype around them is that they might start issuing a dividend fairly soon. They have something like 90-100 billion dollars in cash loaded up and nothing to do with it. Also, they are mainly known for selling computers and phones, but it's whispers about other products that would give them revenue. I believe they are thinking of taking on the television market next, and if that's the case, game over. 1000 dollar stock.

[dannno]

Interesting thoughts, but I believe a lot of the hype around them is that they might start issuing a dividend fairly soon. They have something like 90-100 billion dollars in cash loaded up and nothing to do with it. Also, they are mainly known for selling computers and phones, but it's whispers about other products that would give them revenue. I believe they are thinking of taking on the television market next, and if that's the case, game over. 1000 dollar stock.

What, so I can go out and spend $1,600 on a tv that I can get at Best Buy for $499?!

My $450 laptop outperforms my roommate's $1800 macbook air, his is just lighter and thinner.. I run Ubuntu which functions like MacOS, no viruses, easy install and it's free... one of these days people are going to wake up.

[Revolution9]

What, so I can go out and spend $1,600 on a tv that I can get at Best Buy for $499?!

My $450 laptop outperforms my roommate's $1800 macbook air, his is just lighter and thinner.. I run Ubuntu which functions like MacOS, no viruses, easy install and it's free... one of these days people are going to wake up.

Yeah.. None of my software tools run on your vaunted Linux install. Have fun surfing the net or running a supercomputer with custom apps. And no..the open source $#@! sucks for the most part. Show me an open source After effects or Cinema 4D's Mograph module. Ain't happening pal. Another amateur armchair pundit. When will they ever learn a working man takes pride in his tools and keeps them sharp.

Rev9

[specsaregood]

When will they ever learn a working man takes pride in his tools and keeps them sharp.
Rev9

they need proper guidance rev.

[Revolution9]

they need proper guidance rev.

Good tools cost real money. I have seen all kind of inferior tools break down in the middle of projects. I laughed when the windoze guys diss me for bringing my Mac from home for contract projects and then get a blue screen crash and have to do a three day reinstall while I carry their load. We have a 1400 dollar PC tower, but everytime we want to do something the mac does out of the box we gotta go buy more addons or scour the net for drivers trying to avoid the virus sites. I even got it on bootcamp to run an AI app and after three months of development the $#@!ing windoze OS trashed the main file and 8000 bucks went out the windoze. The nOS never detected the actual monitor ratio and no drivers I found could be installed to fix it. I won't go near the crap. I want to work, not $#@! with OS settings. I installed that windoze OS. What a nightmare of tedious dystopian ugliness compared to the fifteen minute OS X install on three iMacs.

Rev9

[dannno]

Yeah.. None of my software tools run on your vaunted Linux install. Have fun surfing the net or running a supercomputer with custom apps. And no..the open source $#@! sucks for the most part. Show me an open source After effects or Cinema 4D's Mograph module. Ain't happening pal. Another amateur armchair pundit. When will they ever learn a working man takes pride in his tools and keeps them sharp.

Rev9

You can also install MacOS on VirtualBox which is sorta like Bootcamp for linux.

I'm not even saying that is the best thing for the professional graphics designer, but for the everyday PC/Mac user and for many professionals who don't have the option of spending that much, Ubuntu is far superior when you take into account the costs. I can do pretty much anything windows or mac related on my computer, it runs really fast and I don't get malware or viruses. It costs about 1/3 the cost of a Mac for similar performance.

[The Free Hornet]

Yeah.. None of my software tools run on your vaunted Linux install. Have fun surfing the net or running a supercomputer with custom apps. And no..the open source $#@! sucks for the most part. Show me an open source After effects or Cinema 4D's Mograph module. Ain't happening pal. Another amateur armchair pundit. When will they ever learn a working man takes pride in his tools and keeps them sharp.

Rev9

It's odd that you mention supercomputers and badmouth Linux in that context:

A group that keeps track of the top 500 supercomputers in the world estimates that Linux powers 60% of those machines, displacing Unix, which used to be the most popular operating system for high-performance computing.

http://www.forbes.com/2005/03/15/cz_dl_0315linux.html

I should be forgiving as - being an Apple guy - you may not know much about computers.

You may also not know that Linux is dominant in smartphones (Android), embedded systems, and web servers. Although it may not lead desktop PC usage, most of those users are not pertinent to the development of technology. They are users.

I keep planning to build another home Linux PC one of these days, it is a damn shame the systems years old keep on working, and I'm too busy to fix something that ain't broken. I started using Linux at work when MSFT PC took a dump. Linux had everything back up in no time.

BTW, what makes Linux so awesome is the ecology of free software that has arisen in large part due to the software freedom movement of Richard Stallman. Of course, I don't expect an IP thug - - to know much about intellectual freedom either.

[RickyJ]

Yeah.. None of my software tools run on your vaunted Linux install. Have fun surfing the net or running a supercomputer with custom apps. And no..the open source $#@! sucks for the most part. Show me an open source After effects or Cinema 4D's Mograph module. Ain't happening pal. Another amateur armchair pundit. When will they ever learn a working man takes pride in his tools and keeps them sharp.

Rev9

What can I say, you don't have a clue. Open source in many cases not only does not suck, it is the best software available for the task at hand.

[Sullivan*]

What, so I can go out and spend $1,600 on a tv that I can get at Best Buy for $499?!

My $450 laptop outperforms my roommate's $1800 macbook air, his is just lighter and thinner.. I run Ubuntu which functions like MacOS, no viruses, easy install and it's free... one of these days people are going to wake up.

But, but, but, it's a MAC!!!! Apple products are soooo much better than anything else on the market BECAUSE they cost so much! /sarcasm

But seriously, I think you're off by about $1,400 in regards to the Apple TV. I'm gonna' go on record here predicting a $3,000 42" Apple set with a $25/week subscription fee to the new iMote app that turns your already-paid-for $300 iPhone 5 into a touchscreen remote. Steve used up all the other terms, it'll just about have to be called "superfluous" during the unveiling.

[KingNothing]

What, so I can go out and spend $1,600 on a tv that I can get at Best Buy for $499?!

My $450 laptop outperforms my roommate's $1800 macbook air, his is just lighter and thinner.. I run Ubuntu which functions like MacOS, no viruses, easy install and it's free... one of these days people are going to wake up.

But Apple products are simple to use, the company markets better than anyone else on earth and they do a wonderful job of price-fixing. People pay up for that stuff.

I love my Toshiba laptop. I love my Samsung 3D TV. I love my Samsung blu-ray. I love my Galaxy Nexus and Tablet. I'm not an Apple guy. But There are legions of loyal Apple customers. They've carved out a place for themselves in this market, and when they decide to take over the television market, there's little reason to expect them to fail. If they release a TV that is fully integrate with their other devices and it's simple to use, they'll market the hell out of, build interest, and sell units faster than they can produce them.

It's silly not to hold some AAPL at this point.

[specsaregood]

Interesting thoughts, but I believe a lot of the hype around them is that they might start issuing a dividend fairly soon.

They issued their first dividend in the late 80's, just before their quick jaunt down the road of obsolescence.

[Blueskies]

There is most definitely a mania around Apple's stock.

But there was a mania around the stock $100 ago. $200 ago. $300 ago.

The company has $100B in the bank. They have no debt. They trade at a low PE.

Short it at your own peril. I wouldn't touch the stock because I believe that (one day) you'll be right and it will collapse. But it could go much higher before it goes lower.

[Revolution9]

Word up to OP. Apple recently patented 3D touchscreens and word amongst insiders is they may come out with a Pro Level touch driven computer. Imagine a big iMac that you can use with your fingers, a mouse or a stylus like a Wacom video tablet. All peripherals connected by ThunderBolt. They have something secret and serious going on in their pro desktop line.

Rev9

[Yieu]

Word up to OP. Apple recently patented 3D touchscreens and word amongst insiders is they may come out with a Pro Level touch driven computer. Imagine a big iMac that you can use with your fingers, a mouse or a stylus like a Wacom video tablet. All peripherals connected by ThunderBolt. They have something secret and serious going on in their pro desktop line.

Rev9

Sounds about as good as a PC with the same features. I'm not a fan of 3D or touchscreens though, but Wacom tablets are awesome for artists.

Point being, you can find similar hardware and software for PC that can be found for Mac, so it's more about operating system preference and how much you want to pay.

If you are willing to pay more for a similar product due to preference for a company, then you might like Mac more.

[furface]

I've been talking to my mom on the phone today. She is 69 years old and never ever touched a computer in her life. She even got problems with a simple cell (not: smart) phone.So the conversation goes on for a while and I'm telling her that I'm having a hard time finding good (non-mining) stocks to put some of her retirement money in and then she says:
"You know what, why don't you buy me some Apple stocks? I've talked to one of my best friends (another lady about her age) and we both think it's a great company.

Ever been to an Apple store at the mall? It's all seniors. That's Apple's great marketing coup. They sell to seniors and other people who don't know how to use tech and make them feel like they're geniuses for buying the latest tech stuff, even though it's dumb downed versions of better and cheaper products. More seniors = more Apple sales. The market is growing, so unless anybody else can beat them in that market, so will Apple.

[Zippyjuan]

Seniors? I am not that old but most of the people in Apple stores are definately younger than me. My parents have troubles with anything electronic so they stay away.

[furface]

Seniors?

Maybe I was being cruel. I apologize. However, it's worth recognizing the demographics of Apple's loyal customer base. Perceptions are reality only in the world of hype based marketing.

[Liberty74]

I kick my self every day. I inherited a little change back in 2004 and had the chance to buy Apple about in the - GET THIS - $20 range. I invested $5K in the market. Lost a little with Gateway. Broke even with Microsoft. Made a 50% gain from Caesars Entertainment (casino), and made lots with Sirius before it crashed.

Since then, Apple has I believe split 3 or 4 times and now trades at $541. So one share @ $20ish then yields 3 to 4 shares each @ $541.

[rockerrockstar]

They need to make a computer that you can control with your mind and no hands. Then they are on to something.

I think Apple stock will go up with the new iPad coming out. In the long run sooner or late Apple will lose its popularity but the question is when.

[KingNothing]

They need to make a computer that you can control with your mind and no hands. Then they are on to something.

I think Apple stock will go up with the new iPad coming out. In the long run sooner or late Apple will lose its popularity but the question is when.

That's probably true, but at this point foreign central banks are investing in AAPL. That's significant.

[The Binghamton Patriot]

I've been talking to my mom on the phone today. She is 69 years old and never ever touched a computer in her life. She even got problems with a simple cell (not: smart) phone.
So the conversation goes on for a while and I'm telling her that I'm having a hard time finding good (non-mining) stocks to put some of her retirement money in and then she says:
"You know what, why don't you buy me some Apple stocks? I've talked to one of my best friends (another lady about her age) and we both think it's a great company. They're all over the news, they have to be great."

As a contrarian, I instantly took this as a major sell signal for APPL. My mom has NEVER traded stocks and has never dealt with any AAPL product and any computer or smart phone for that matter.

Remember the famous rule from the 1929 crash:

http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/...o_sell_joseph/

Don't get me wrong:
I don't want to say my mom should be compared to a shoeshine boy, but as far as stocks and technology are concerned her knowledge is at the level of such a person.

------------------

Getting a little more serious:
Recently, there have been reports about questionable accounting methods used by AAPL to inflate earnings by accounting for sales of products which aren't actually sold.
Additionally, the company is considering to use it's huge pile of cash to broaden their product portfolio which usually ends in a desaster.
EVERYONE is on one side of the trade. Literally all big fundmanagers own APPL. The trade is totally overcrowded.
APPL faces problems with their manufacturing slaves in China.

etc. there are a lot of reasons to be cautious.

iAm considering to buy some puts...

i would DEF buy some puts. 100%

[Revolution9]

I had some PC clown flatIron or somethin'...flathead...flatUlent..whatever neg rep me for bitching windoze cost me 8 grand in development costs. FlatIron..beware. heh..This Mac Pro got yer little fanboiz ass number and I know who and what Bill Gates is and what he is up to. I ain't mad bro..ya little snipe monkey. I get even and yer lookin' for a drooldonkey of the week award ceremony just because I am in a good mood and feeling gracious. Ya didn't even have the 'nads to post in this thread from a quick perusal. Frikkin' sissies. I suspect yer a little brat with no wujo or kung fu skill and pr0n is your main use of a tool using computers. "You mad bro"<- You think that low level tripe is worthy as a rejoinder?? It shows total lack of rhetorical skill at best.


Rev9