I posted this in another thread, but since I took some time to put it together I'm posting it in a new thread so it gets more views. Feel free to correct my estimates if I'm getting some of the state rules wrong.
If you read this PLEASE KEEP IT BUMPED UP! As many people as possible need to see this!
In IA there are 28 possible delegates. It sounds like the organization was good, so we may get 20 out of there.
In NH, there are 10 possible BOUND delegates, Ron Paul got 3. Huntsman got one. Since he dropped out that delegate is UNBOUND. We may get that one. NH is has bound delegates so for the first round we won't have any luck getting others until additional rounds.
In SC, we didn't get any delegates. Grinch got 23 BOUND delegates. If Grinch drops out soon they become UNBOUND. If Ron Paul supporters are organized they could end up picking up a lot of them.
In FL, we didn't get any and probably wont unless this goes to a brokered convention and at some point they become UNBOUND.
In NV, we got 5 BOUND delegates, but most of the delegates that got selected are Ron Paul supporters. There is a possibility that these selected delegates can vote to change the rules at the state convention to UNBIND all delegates. In this case Ron Paul could pick up most of the delegates. NV has 28 BOUND delegates. If they become UNBOUND at the state convention, we would probably have at least 15 of them.
In CO, it sounds like we got about 50% of the UNBOUND delegates. So we'll probably have 18 of the 36. If Santy drops out, we could get a few more.
In MN, is sounds like we got over 75% of the delegates. So we'll probably get 30 of the 40 UNBOUND delegates.
In Maine, we'll probably get 75% of the delegates. So we'll probably get 18 of the 24 UNBOUND delegates.
AZ is winner take all with 29 bound delegates. We probably won't get any as Romney won the state, unless this goes to a brokered convention and the delegates become UNBOUND. In this case we may get some of them if RP supporters are organized. (UPDATE: I'm told AZ delegates technically aren't bound, so we may get some of them)
In MI, we didn't get any delegates, but there is the possibility that we could pick up the delegates that become UNBOUND if Santy drops out. Santy got 14 delegates. Some of them could go to RP. If it goes to a brokered convention RP could even get some of Romney's.
In WY, Ron Paul got at least 6 of the 29 possible. However, since this is a state with UNBOUND delegates Ron Paul will probably get more than that. Let's say he get's almost half of them, or 14.
In WA, there are 40 UNBOUND delegates. Based on ground reports, Ron Paul will probably get most of the delegates. Let's say he gets 25.
So if no one drops out, IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (0) + FL (0) + NV(15) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (0) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 143
If BOTH Grinch and Santy drop out the delegate scenario could look something like this, assuming Ron Paul supporters were organized in becoming delegates (delegates would become UNBOUND when the candidate they are bound to drops out):
IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (15/23) + FL (0) + NV(20) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (10) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 173
Of course these are just estimates, we won't know for sure until the delegate selection process is complete. If this goes to a brokered convention and all delegates become UNBOUND, we could get a lot of Romney's delegates too.
I'm really confused about why people don't understand how the delegates work. What is it that is causing the confusion?
Here is a good video (from late January, but it still has valid info) that explains the delegate process/situation.
Here is another video of Doug Wead (Ron Paul's campaign strategist) talking about the delegate strategy.