Economist Predicts that the Price of Gold & Silver will Drop this Year. Is he Correct?

[Paul Or Nothing II]

since opec started ( full strength 1973 ) i have seen them lower production many many times when the price of crude oil gets below what opec thinks it should be ,( thats a free mkt ? ).

Again, who said it's a "free market", I didn't! I'm just saying whether there's one or not, prices are determined by supply & demand & those "evil cartelists" are nothing more that a group of self-interested individuals & hence they necessarily undercut each other to maximize their profits

And sellers always lower production if they can't get enough profits on their sales, they take that money & put it elsewhere where they'll get better returns, this is markets' way of rationing goods, when prices increase somewhere, sellers increase production to capture more profits & thereby increase supply & put downward pressure on prices

i am saying they can do what they want with their crude oil ( i would rather see them herding goats ) , i just don't think any commority that has supply controlled by a cartel should be traded on our exchanges. how can that be so hard to understand.

Firstly, whether oil is there on US exchanges or not, doesn't make much of a difference to global supply & demand scenario so prices will still be dictated by supply & demand, it's just that US might lose some jobs & profits as the traders move to some other exchanges outside of US

Secondly, it's IRRELEVANT what you or I think the exchanges "should" do, it's their property & they've a right to list whatever products they want to list & saying otherwise is like arguing from socialist/communist standpoint that government owns everything & everyone in its country & therefore it can dictate to everyone

And saying "our exchanges" is like me calling your farm "our farm" & asking for government regulation on what you can do on it or what you can grow on it - it's ANTI-PROPERTY-RIGHTS

let the FREE market set the price , not opec/goldman sucks ( that said about $30/b of the crude price is because os speculation ) and others .

Again, you clearly don't understand speculation, speculators are buyers AND sellers at the same time, when they enter they push the price up but the effect is reversed when they sell back to sqaure off & take profits
As I've said, saying that speculators increase prices is like saying X + 1 - 1 = X + 1, which simply isn't true because X + 1 - 1 = 0 so net effect of speculators is zero

Prices on futures only rise in conjuction with global supply & demand & that's why the really big moves, up or down, happen when technical or fundamental factors come into play, otherwise markets spend most of its time just trading in a "range" because there's no information for to move drastically up or down

Just because speculators want higher prices does NOT mean they'll get it because the ACTUAL buyers mayn't be willing to pay that much which will put downward pressure on demand & oil & price will fall, IRRESPECTIVE of what speculators or cartels want

what you said about the goverment not being able to tell the exchanges what they can sell/put on "their" exchange , have you ever heard of CFTC ,

Let's see, we've good ol' Patriot Act & now NDAA which allow government to kill & imprison Americans without due process so that should be fine & dandy too, right?

Just because bad governance exists, does NOT legitimize what they do so I'm sure Paul will get rid of CFTC too along with truckloads of useless "regulators" bureaucracies like the education, energy, food & drugs departments & all that useless waste of taxpayers' money

there are some things that do need to be regulated , like RP said if they break the LAW put them in jail.

"Regulation" is PRIOR RESTRAINT & freedom & prior restraint DON'T go together
Just like anti-gun people want to "regulate" or even ban guns but that's prior restraint because you're punishing someone even though they've not violated anyone's life, liberty or property - it's simple, everyone should be able to access guns while those who use them to violate others should be punished but disallowing them or "regulating" them is anti-freedom

And no, RP doesn't consider trading or exchanges allowing oil-contracts as "breaking the law", the only "law" he believes in is that people shouldn't violate others' life, liberty & property so he wouldn't support government dictating & "regulating" anyone who's merely exercising their property-rights

The problem is that most people equate "freedom" with "freedom to use government to do what they THINK is right" & then everyone is trying to do just that & everyone is less free & that's why the world is so f'cked up; but true freedom can only be had if people are willing to recognize that others also have the same freedoms to life, liberty & property

[ILUVRP]

you seem to be a very smart person , but you are so wrong on this one.

i hate it when OPEC/big specs/headge funds pi$$ on my head and tell me its raining.

i am not a trump fan but on this one i agree with him ;

-----The leaders of OPEC are "sitting around their table, setting the price of oil and laughing at us because we have no leadership," real estate mogul Donald Trump told CNBC Tuesday

That includes U.S. ally Saudi Arabia, whose Prince Alawaleed bin Talal recently told CNBC the price of oil won't exceed $100 a barrel. Crude oil is currently at around $108.

"I have many friends in Saudi Arabia and other countries and they can’t believe what they’re getting away with," Trump said. "They can’t believe how stupid we are. We don’t need Saudi Arabia."----------

me : if goldman sachs is correct and spec's trading is about 30% of the price of crude prices , i would think OPEC ( with their control of production is worth another 20% , whoo , that makes crude true value about $55/ba , gasoline $1.70 a gallon.

OTR truckers get about 6 mpg diesel , at 60 mph that about $43 a hour ( that only the fuel ).

farm tractors/combines use about 8 gal of fuel a hour on avg , thats about $35/hr.

this great country is in big trouble , no matter what you or i think " free trade " is.

to trumps saying that opec is laughing at us , i would add so is goldmansucks.

i do not in no way blame big oil and never have as the are just doing their job for their shareholders.

[Bossobass]

[QUOTE=Paul Or Nothing II;4237758]

Again, don't confuse issues, I've never said there's a free market, I'm merely trying to explain that irrespective of whether there's free market or not, the prices are determined by supply & demand so long as there's coercive force & the more people like you demand for more government regulation & more government coercion, the less chance there will be of a free market ever existing

2 things: 1) You're putting words in my mouth. When did I call for more intervention? 2) You're contradicting yourself. Which is it, supply and demand or coercive force? You can't win both sides of an argument with pretzel logic.

Demand is created and supply is controlled. There is no free market, thus there are no free market controls.

Look at the housing market. The massive infusion of 2% money coupled with the complete erasure of underwriting. What was the result? Where the hell was supply and demand in that equation? Demand was created and supply was controlled by artificially low interest rates.

I'm astounded at anyone who thinks central-planning works, it doesn't matter how much the cartelists plan together, ultimately they're self-interested people dictated by market-forces & they constantly try to undercut each other, the more they sell than the others, the more profits they make so they're always trying to bait buyers with a lower price than others, directly or indirectly & that's why they can't charge whatever they want

Again, this is based on what data?

Central Planning works... for Central Planners.

Can you name a Federal Reserve System stock holder who's hurting? Which of the Too Big To Fail banks took a haircut in the 'meltdown'? Exxon's the largest publicly traded company in the world with profits that are 3 times those of WalMart. And you honestly believe that's because they constantly struggle to undercut their competition?

Please get hold of a history book that has its focus on Anglo-American influence in the Middle East regarding oil and especially since WWII. When you see any evidence of a free market in play, bring it to this discussion.

Bosso

[bolil]

If he has a silicon brain capable of processing the data that arises from countless human interactions... he may or may not be correct.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

2 things: 1) You're putting words in my mouth. When did I call for more intervention? 2) You're contradicting yourself. Which is it, supply and demand or coercive force? You can't win both sides of an argument with pretzel logic.

Demand is created and supply is controlled. There is no free market, thus there are no free market controls.

Look at the housing market. The massive infusion of 2% money coupled with the complete erasure of underwriting. What was the result? Where the hell was supply and demand in that equation? Demand was created and supply was controlled by artificially low interest rates.





Again, this is based on what data?

Central Planning works... for Central Planners.

Can you name a Federal Reserve System stock holder who's hurting? Which of the Too Big To Fail banks took a haircut in the 'meltdown'? Exxon's the largest publicly traded company in the world with profits that are 3 times those of WalMart. And you honestly believe that's because they constantly struggle to undercut their competition?

Please get hold of a history book that has its focus on Anglo-American influence in the Middle East regarding oil and especially since WWII. When you see any evidence of a free market in play, bring it to this discussion.

Bosso

Again, none of what you're saying is relevant, it's a FACT that supply & demand dictate price & when prices rise, sellers, be it a cartel or whatever, they raise production to take advantage of high prices & more profits to be made, this is FUNDAMENTAL argument for anyone who believes in workings of the market, it's the socialists & central-planners who disregard market's tendency to dictate prices
And central-planning works for central-planners when they can FORCE people, nobody forces anyone to buy oil & that's why they can't raise prices too much because then fewer people will buy them & then fewer profits will be made

And you people keep talking "controlled supply" but then why don't they "control it" more to raise it to $1000 or $10000 or $million per barrel, it's ridiculous! I urge to read this book, it's not very complex or lengthy & you'll understand the market-factors lot better, this exactly kind of stuff that Paul actually understands & that's why he doesn't go on rant about cartels, speculators or whatever - http://www.hacer.org/pdf/Hazlitt00.pdf



Look at the chart below, prices in gold-terms have been there and thereabouts for DECADES, it's dollar that's depreciating, government & media PROPAGANDA just keeps harping about cartels & speculators to distract from the MAIN ISSUE - the depreciating dollar

OIL priced in gold





NATURAL GAS priced in gold

[Pennsylvania]

this deflationary crisis

^thats when you know to stop reading

[Paul Or Nothing II]

^thats when you know to stop reading

Actually, there will likely be deflationary pressures before anything else because of low lending by banks due to weak market-sentiment & that shrinks the moneysupply but I think Bernanke will try to re-inflate more & more as he actually believes that inflating was the solution to Depression so in the short-run, deflation can happen, depends on how quickly Bernanke reacts & how much he reacts