Economist Predicts that the Price of Gold & Silver will Drop this Year. Is he Correct?

[Paul Or Nothing II]

"They had money, they bought silver in anticipation of inflation due to US going off gold-standard (buying gold was prohibited at the time) so what?"

nixon dropped off brenten/woods in 1973

Obviously, you've no clue they had buying from 1970 till the cme f'cked them disingenuously

i feel very sorry for people that don't understand FREE TRADE . i see all the above BS on hannity/limpbaugh forums where the FASCIST have control.

I feel sorry for people like you who can't see that Paul does NOT believe in "regulation" & he'll NOT suspend oil-contracts, for the same reason he says he'd not have voted for the Civil Rights Act - PROPERTY RIGHTS

my advice is to get out of the kool-aid (crude oil ) line . stop reading so many worthless books and learn for yourself what is really going on.

Apparently, you don't believe in reading & gaining knowledge, what else to expect from a national socialist who has no idea about what Paul & free market stands for!

Do you realize that all of Paul's knowledge, his ability to predict economic collapse & everything & all his understanding of economics, all of it comes from books, if he hadn't read those then he'd have ended up like you but apparently he's much more intelligent so I suggest you go to http://www.mises.org/

i can tell you are not a real RP believer as you do not believe in real free trade , but controlled trade , sort of like people at goldmen sucks/jpmorgan

LOL you want to prevent people from sending their OWN PROPERTY (oil, gas) freely between countries, you want to "regulate" the exchanges without an ounce of understanding of why & how they work the way do & you're calling me I'm for "controlled trade" when it's YOU who wants the government to control everything

i guess when gas gets to $7-8 a gallon you will scratch your head and say , whow -how did this happen.

No, I won't scratch my head because I understand where the inflation is coming from & SO DOES PAUL

i am 74yrs old , i have seen this great country taken away from the avg american and given to big oil/banks/fed res and we will never get it back.

people 30 yrs and under think this is all normal , i feel very sorry for them.

I doubt you've even a slightest clue how Fed & banks work, let alone understanding how they raise prices of oil & everything else otherwise you wouldn't be naively claiming that cartels or speculators raise prices

after 12 yrs in the military to help people like you so you can spout your worthless BS , everytime someone doesn't agree with them they spout the commey BS. i won't even comment on your idiot post as you really don't understand the way things should work.

I don't give a sh!t for your military service, I'm not a war-mongering Republican to applaud you for terrorising innocents & being a tool of the Mlitary-Industrial-Complex & you got paid for it from hard-working taxpayers' money who actually PRODUCE something goods/services rather than just destroying things, if people refused to fight unnecessary wars then so many lives & resources could be saved

You're asking for government to put reuglations on the exchanges to your fancy just because you don't understand how they work, you're asking for government to prevent people from selling their goods the way they want & you don't want to be called a socialist/communist? Are you kidding me, that's what socialists/communists believe in - government "regulating" & dictating things for the "greater good"; & Paul does NOT stand for this type of thing at all

please don't give your views to others as RP will lose too many votes , keep your worthless thoughts to yourself.

i will add that when goldmansucks say about 30% of the price of crude is because of speculators , goldman must be commies.

Ron Paul obviously doesn't believe in any of your regulationist, market-interventionist socialist/communist theories so I'd suggest you don't tell anyone you're a Paul-supporter otherwise, they'll think we're all commies too, like OWS, who believe in government dictacting the "regulations" & violating property-rights for the "greater good"

Pay attention when the black guy @4:00 starts rambling about "but but the regulations", "but but the derivatives" & Ron Paul shuts him out every time, that guy was expecting Paul to say that he'll "regulate" or ban derivatives or something like that Ron keeps bringing the issue back to government & Fed, obviously Paul doesn't believe in your regulationist anti-property-rights theories because he's smart enough to understand how regulations & government-dictatorship only leads to more trouble

I'm 27 and thanks to RP and people like you I know this is not normal. Thank you. But for the most part you are probably right about most of my age group. Just a few of us are awake.

Most of what "ILUVRP" is saying isn't true at all, he's actually opposing everything Ron Paul stands, please watch the videos above to understand Paul's actual positions

[The Gold Standard]

Of course they are speculating on oil. You want to stop it? Cut off their printing press. When money is more scarce they can't pump so much into one commodity.

[ILUVRP]

" I don't give a sh!t for your military service, I'm not a war-mongering Republican to applaud you for terrorising innocents & being a tool of the Mlitary-Industrial-Complex & you got paid for it from hard-working taxpayers' money who actually PRODUCE something goods/services rather than just destroying things, if people refused to fight unnecessary wars then so many lives & resources could be saved "

spouting this kind of talk leeds me to believe you are a chicken-hawk like Dr Paul ( ex military ) was talking about. like i said if it were not for people like RP and i you would be spouting your BS in german .

i have supported RP for over 8 yrs , i don't agree with everything he says , i do agree with his closing most of the overseas bases / fed res/ much smaller goverment/get out of the middle east and stay out.

watching the video , Dr Paul was saying about the true value of things being set by the market place ( i would add not by OPEC ).

the question about diveratives , the man was partly correct , they were moving them around at 2-3% margin , the fractional system that banks/fed res uses is at 10% . even that is too low, RP did say that over leveraging was a problem , that is what i am talking about, crude oil is a booble that will NEVER get smaller when our enemies set the supply.

I WILL REPEAT FOR THE NON-BELIVERS ----NO COMMODITY THAT IS CONTROLLED BY A CARTEL SHOULD BE TRADED ON OUR EXCHANGES---

[RabbitMan]

spouting this kind of talk leeds me to believe you are a chicken-hawk like Dr Paul ( ex military ) was talking about. like i said if it were not for people like RP and i you would be spouting your BS in german .

Not to budge in on you guys' argument, but there is no way Nazi Germany would have invaded the US.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

Wow.

Cartels exist and they control the markets completely (especially supply and demand).

"Competition is a sin." John D. Rockefeller

They're not above the market, again, if they raise prices too high then the demand falls & they make fewer profits, in fact, when prices are high, there's incentive for them to produce more & capture more profits but that act of producing more, increases supply & thereby lower prices

The point is that you don't have to raise the price to $1,000 to make record profits (Exxon/Mobil) when you control the market.

Well, what's the point of having a cartel if you can't charge whatever you want? Isn't that the whole purpose of monopolies/cartels? I mean if they "control the markets" then they should be able to raise it $1000 shouldn't they? If they're making record-profits then wouldn't they be making even more record-profits if they charge $1000?

But they don't do that because they CAN'T do that because demand would collapse drastically & their overall profits would shrink a lot

Do you think you could make untold riches if you knew exactly when a commodity would be shocked and what affect that would have on other commodities as well? Duh. It's the same as raising the price to $10,000, or, as high as you want to raise it.

I'd suggest reading some Austrian Economics instead of conspiratorial garbage, Paul isn so knowledgeable about economics & politics because he has actually been reading a lot of useful stuff regarding those issues so I'd urge you to do them & you might be able to understand the market forces a lot better

Ron Paul advocates the return to a free market, but he most certainly doesn't preach that one exists today.

It doesn't have to be for prices to be determined, the prices are determined by supply & demand no matter what & Paul, who has studied enough Austrian Economics to realizes just this & that's why he doesn't go on a rant about cartels "controlling the market" like many other politicians who have been for years using the cartel's name to distract from REAL cause & that's why he blames where the problem ACTUALLY is - government

Monetary policy is controlled with no oversight. Energy is controlled by regional monopolies. Supply is controlled by covert and overt installation of puppet regimes. Demand is controlled by a media cartel. Your future income has already been determined and divided.

Fed is a COERCIVE monopoly which as I've said before is thievery backed by government, people are FORCED to use it one way or another & that's unjustified
But oil situation is very different, nobody is forcing to buy oil, if you think it's too costly then don't use it or use alternatives if you can, that will automatically put downward pressure on prices as the demand drops, they'll have to lower prices to make profits so don't conflate the two situations; one is COERCIVE, the other is not & nobody is "entitled to cheap oil" or anything else other than their life, liberty & property, it's socialists who think they're entitled to food, education, healthcare & what not just because they exist

Romney is the guy whether they have to stuff ballots, rig the electronic voting machines, black out the rest of the field from public view, blatantly lie in the media, run smear campaigns, pour money into the chosen coffers or other. Or, I'm wrong and there are "free elections" as well as a "free market".

Again, don't confuse issues, I've never said there's a free market, I'm merely trying to explain that irrespective of whether there's free market or not, the prices are determined by supply & demand so long as there's coercive force & the more people like you demand for more government regulation & more government coercion, the less chance there will be of a free market ever existing

I'm astounded at anyone who believes the commodities (or any other) market is dictated by free market supply and demand... truly baffled.

I'm astounded at anyone who thinks central-planning works, it doesn't matter how much the cartelists plan together, ultimately they're self-interested people dictated by market-forces & they constantly try to undercut each other, the more they sell than the others, the more profits they make so they're always trying to bait buyers with a lower price than others, directly or indirectly & that's why they can't charge whatever they want

Every seller is always looking to sell highest it can while buyers looking to buy lowest & this pulling of price back & forth is what creates prices
When you sell your service, you try to secure a reasonable salary for yourself, you don't want to sell yourself too short & at the same time, you don't ask for salary that is beyond what your service is worth because then you'd price yourself out of the market

the commodity markets were set up mainly so that farmers could sell their crops at the elevator ( which headges it off at the board of trade ) , then the farmer could lock in a profit on his labor/costs.

i do think all commodities except for crude and its cracks ( gasoline-heating oil ) are pretty much supply/demand controlled , there is a lot of front running going on floors of the exchanges but they are very short term movers.

overall most commodity mkts work as intended ( i do think margin rates 5-6% is too low , in 1929 stocks margin rates were 10% ) , it is not a free mkt when the supply is controlled ( sort of like the Texas Railroad Commission before OPEC ).

sometimes i think there are mitt r./ rick s. shills on this forum.

Again, I've never said, there's a free market but it doesn't have to be, irrespective of it the prices are always determined by supply & demand, if they raise prices too much above what's optimum, then fewer people buy & profits go down & then they must lower them

And yes, there could be war-hungry Santorum supporters here who'd like to nuke those "evil oil cartels" & they expect government to "regulate" stuff & violate property-rights & use coercion against people & so on

" I don't give a sh!t for your military service, I'm not a war-mongering Republican to applaud you for terrorising innocents & being a tool of the Mlitary-Industrial-Complex & you got paid for it from hard-working taxpayers' money who actually PRODUCE something goods/services rather than just destroying things, if people refused to fight unnecessary wars then so many lives & resources could be saved "

spouting this kind of talk leeds me to believe you are a chicken-hawk like Dr Paul ( ex military ) was talking about. like i said if it were not for people like RP and i you would be spouting your BS in german .

Please try to think a little before you post

Chicken-Hawk = someone who wants wars but has never served

I don't want wars so how does that relate to me?

Further, as I've said, you didn't do it for free, people are self-interested, that's the fundamental principle of free market as well as psychology so don't act like you did a favor to rest of the mankind

Further, if there weren't people producing ACTUAL goods & services in the country then military would have starved to death because government pays the military from the money it steals from the productive people in the economy who produce real goods & services, as opposed to those who simply destroy things

i have supported RP for over 8 yrs , i don't agree with everything he says , i do agree with his closing most of the overseas bases / fed res/ much smaller goverment/get out of the middle east and stay out.

watching the video , Dr Paul was saying about the true value of things being set by the market place ( i would add not by OPEC ).

So you think he's too stupid to not realize that OPEC exists?

When he says "markets", OPEC IS part of the market & he understands that no cartel can charge whatever they want, they're bound by supply & demand & competition of self-interests amongst themselves otherwise he'd have had a rant about "those evil oil cartels" but he doesn't because he doesn't believe in that MYTH peddled US government to take people's attention away from REAL PROBLEM which is government & Fed, which rightly points out

the question about diveratives , the man was partly correct , they were moving them around at 2-3% margin , the fractional system that banks/fed res uses is at 10% . even that is too low.

Did he say "ban the derivatives"? Did he say "regulate the derivatives"? NO, his point was that it's excess of credit created by Fed is THE PROBLEM & if you deal with that then there's no need to ban or "regulate" the derivatives & plus, just let the risk-takers fail if they make wrong choice, just as they should keep the profits if they make the right choice

He understands derivatives in any market are essential tools to manage risk & hence "regulating" them or banning them will disturb market-equilibrium & therefore it's important to focus on the CAUSE aka government & Fed

He even brought Sarbanes-Oxley to say that it was bad move to bring in that "regulation" & therefore, there should be no "regulations" on derivatives either - if you make fraud you'll be brought to justice, if you make losses then you bear them - simple as that

I WILL REPEAT FOR THE NON-BELIVERS ----NO COMMODITY THAT IS CONTROLLED BY A CARTEL SHOULD BE TRADED ON OUR EXCHANGES---

And I will repeat for those believe in the MYTH that no cartel can dictate price, only the supply & demand can dictate it & that's why they sell it at $100, if they could charge more sure they would but they simply CAN'T DICTATE PRICES

And again, government has no right to tell any exchange what they can put on their exchanges unless you believe in socialist/communist belief that government owns everything & everyone & has a right to dictate to everyone An exchange is private property & the owners are free conduct their business as they please just as Paul defended business' right to put up "whites only", "blacks only" or whatever because IT'S THEIR PROPERTY & so long as they aren't violating anyone's life, liberty & property, that should be fine
And no one is "entitled to cheap oil", or anything else other than their life, liberty & property; just like government shouldn't be able to tell you how to live in your house or how much you should sell your goods for, they shouldn't be able to tell that to others

[ILUVRP]

since opec started ( full strength 1973 ) i have seen them lower production many many times when the price of crude oil gets below what opec thinks it should be ,( thats a free mkt ? ).

i am saying they can do what they want with their crude oil ( i would rather see them herding goats ) , i just don't think any commority that has supply controlled by a cartel should be traded on our exchanges. how can that be so hard to understand.

let the FREE market set the price , not opec/goldman sucks ( that said about $30/b of the crude price is because os speculation ) and others .


what you said about the goverment not being able to tell the exchanges what they can sell/put on "their" exchange , have you ever heard of CFTC ,
there are some things that do need to be regulated , like RP said if they break the LAW put them in jail.

[Aurave]

overall most commodity mkts work as intended ( i do think margin rates 5-6% is too low , in 1929 stocks margin rates were 10% )

So are you talking about a commodity market, or its futures market? And are you under the impression that futures are analogous to equities? Because you don't invest in anything in a futures market, you make guesses about what the actual spot price will be at another time. Speculators in a commodity futures market don't compete with producers and consumers and really can't affect the price unless convenience yield does not exist, which only occurs in precious metals. The only commodity futures market where speculators can possibly affect actual prices are really gold and silver.

To see your comments on oil futures is akin to listening to a drunk ramble about how umbrellas cause floods. It may seem so at first if you have no knowledge of how rain works, have never experienced it, and have never seen umbrellas. You start out on a normal sunny day and see an increasing number of people carrying these odd contraptions along with them. All of the sudden a light drizzle starts but you don't really notice it, but many of these people open their umbrellas. Soon a downpour comes, and you are soaking wet. All you have seen is people opening umbrellas BEFORE the heavy rain started, so you come to the conclusion that those umbrellas were the cause of the rain.

Now I'm glad you have a strong opinion, but before you share it and misinform people I wish you would just take the time to objectively study futures markets and understand them, that is all. Personally I wouldn't wish the negatives of increased price volatility in crude oil markets on any end user, but that is just me, perhaps I care too much for the fortunes of the little man.

[ILUVRP]

So are you talking about a commodity market, or its futures market? And are you under the impression that futures are analogous to equities? Because you don't invest in anything in a futures market, you make guesses about what the actual spot price will be at another time. Speculators in a commodity futures market don't compete with producers and consumers and really can't affect the price unless convenience yield does not exist, which only occurs in precious metals. The only commodity futures market where speculators can possibly affect actual prices are really gold and silver.

To see your comments on oil futures is akin to listening to a drunk ramble about how umbrellas cause floods. It may seem so at first if you have no knowledge of how rain works, have never experienced it, and have never seen umbrellas. You start out on a normal sunny day and see an increasing number of people carrying these odd contraptions along with them. All of the sudden a light drizzle starts but you don't really notice it, but many of these people open their umbrellas. Soon a downpour comes, and you are soaking wet. All you have seen is people opening umbrellas BEFORE the heavy rain started, so you come to the conclusion that those umbrellas were the cause of the rain.

Now I'm glad you have a strong opinion, but before you share it and misinform people I wish you would just take the time to objectively study futures markets and understand them, that is all. Personally I wouldn't wish the negatives of increased price volatility in crude oil markets on any end user, but that is just me, perhaps I care too much for the fortunes of the little man.

i have traded commodity , futures as you want to call them for about 35yrs , look at the yellow pages for futures brokers and let me know how many you find , then look for commodity brokers , i do know the difference.

what misinformation have i expounded , saying that any commodity ( futures you want to call it ) that is controlled by a cartel should not be traded on our exchanges , i would feel the same about corn-wheat-beans or any other commodity that was controlled by a cartel . i do own USO stock ,so i am sort of headged , most are not.


wouldn't it be great if our farmers had a cartel ? if you want to see a free market , look no farther than the american farmer , i was one of them also .

i did sell corn/wheat/soybean futures ( forward months to you ) of 1/3 my crops.

please don't preach to me , we will see who is correct about this issue in time .

[Aurave]

ILUVRP, I don't understand, why do we need time to see who is "correct"? Are you making a prediction? Did I? I was under impression we were discussing the nature of futures markets specifically that of crude oil. They are understood today.

Also, how does owning an index tracking fund hedge you against anything? What exactly are your positions, whereby holding USO, your risk is hedged? Or are you using the word hedge in the same manner that it is used in hedge funds, where they don't actually hedge but just use with massive leverage to increase a position?

[ILUVRP]

ILUVRP, I don't understand, why do we need time to see who is "correct"? Are you making a prediction? Did I? I was under impression we were discussing the nature of futures markets specifically that of crude oil. They are understood today.

Also, how does owning an index tracking fund hedge you against anything? What exactly are your positions, whereby holding USO, your risk is hedged? Or are you using the word hedge in the same manner that it is used in hedge funds, where they don't actually hedge but just use with massive leverage to increase a position?

what i meant by time will tell about crude oil futures is that it is said now goldman-jpmorgan are 80% of the crude trading , we will see how it washes out, who are they trading for ? their own accounts? the Saudi royals , but i guess there are forum members here that would think its ok , its a free market trade , its not free trade .

as far as my being headged with USO ( i own 100shs) , it follows the price of WTI crude , it is about 1/3 the price of crude oil , that is if crude moves $1/ba , uso moves about 33 cents, i just feel a little better when i fill up my gas tank. but like i posted before i am sure there is people on the forum that hold phy silver/gold ( as i do ) , that are in a way headged as gold/silver will go up along with crude futures as it is a big inflation driver.