Economist Predicts that the Price of Gold & Silver will Drop this Year. Is he Correct?

[RP-AUSTRALIA]

I am reading a book called 'The Great Crash Ahead' by Harry Dent. He is an economist and a futurist and he is predicting that the price of gold and silver will drop this year:



I am thinking of buying silver at the moment but not i'm unsure whether it is the right thing to do. What is everyones thoughts about this guys arguements? Is he working on flawed assumptions or is he generally correct?

[RP-AUSTRALIA]

The guy was accurately able to perdict the lost decade in Japan and the 2008 crisis (amongst others) based demographic trends. He does therefore have some legitimacy.

Here is a quote from page 14 of this book:

"Here is where we perhaps have the most shocking of our forecasts for the ears ahead in this deflationary crisis: THe US Dollar will appreciate and be a safe haven - not gold, silver, the Euro or the Swiss Franc. Chart I-3 (in the book), which graphs the US dollar index from 1980 to 2011, shows that the US dollar was debased in the boom. It peaked in value in 1985 and has fallen nearly 60% in two major crashes. It was the massive creation of $42 trillion in private debt, which grew 2.65 times the growth of GDP from 1983 to 2008, which created massive amounts of new dollars and devalued the US dollar. Since the financial crisis in 2008 and early 2009, the dollar went up 23%! Gold and silver went down. Oil crashed most extremely. Stocks here and around the world all crashed. Real estate crashed. The dollar was the safe haven in late 2008, and it will be the safe haven for likely many years to come in the period of debt deleveraging ahead."

"During the periods where there is the perception of a financial crisis, gold and silver rise. But when the crisis actually hits, they fall and it is the dollar that rises. Why? During a financial meltdown, the massive $42 trillion in private debt will see major write-offs and restructuring and that destroys dollars. By destroying dollars you make them scarce and valuable again - you actually reverse the debt and credit bubble - and fewer dollars mean fewer dollars chasing consumer goods, or deflation in prices, not inflation! Understanding the difference between deflation and inflation is the key to prospering in the crisis unlike any you have seen in your lifetime."

[MooCowzRock]

Long term, I would say no. Short term, that's definitely a possibility.

I wouldn't invest in gold and silver short term unless you are very familiar with the market enough to speculate, and I wouldn't invest long term unless you are just looking for a stable placeholder for your cash.

[azxd]

In a collapsed economy, metal does not taste very good, unless it is formed lead and launched from a brass casing within a steel tube into something that once lived and now provides nourishment

[ronpaulfollower999]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...81S0GU20120229

Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Try to space out your purchases (ex: $XXX every other week).

Up or down, I'm alwyays gonna keep stacking, so his opinion is meh to me. Some people think the price will be $65 this year. As Ron Paul would say, all this talk is just talk. No one really knows what's going to happen short term.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

Yes, in SHORT-TERM, it's likely to fall (as well as silver & other commodities) as the deflation sets in but here's the thing with something like gold - it's PURCHASING-POWER (the quantity of stuff you can get in return for something) remains pretty stable compared to most things (here's something on this - http://pricedingold.com/us-dollar/), especially against important things like & food, etc & in fact you may see increases in your purchasing-power

To paraphrase myself, let's say you can buy X stuff (let's say important necessities) with an ounce of gold right now, even if gold's price falls, you'll still pretty much be able to buy that much stuff with it, it's just that its value in terms of "dollars", "pounds", etc will have fallen because the quantity of money shrinks in a deflationary environment

Well, why not stick with currencies then, you can but I fear that Bernanke will anything & everything in his power to inflate the moneysupply & to counter deflation, he's a firm believer that Fed didn't increase the moneysupply enough during the Great Depression & I'm sure it's going to influence him into hyperinflating the dollar into confetti so there's always a risk with fictional-money so with gold at least you know what you're going to get, for the most part, with currencies, it could go either way - either it could be very rewarding or it might destroy you so take these things into consideration & then proceed accordingly

I've always been a little skeptical of silver because it can be extremely flaky because of its easy accessibility & liquilidy which are advantage & disadvantage at the same time but it wouldn't be too bad to put some money in silver since it's a little harder to liquidate gold; all in all, just DON'T PUT ALL YOUR EGGS IN ONE BASKET! Diversify - gold, silver, currencies guns & ammo & so on (things can get turbulent during crises so.......)

[The Gold Standard]

He is assuming they won't just run the printers 24/7 Weimar style. If they don't then he is right gold and silver prices in dollars will tank. If they do then nothing will fall in dollars.

[ILUVRP]

i tend to disagree -- the markets are looking like obama is a lock to win another 4 yrs --the price of crude will stay above $90/ba and could go to $150-180 if someone attacks iran---countries are printing paper like crazy---gold is getting very hard to find as the easy gold has been mined--interest rates seem to stay low as the world is going to stay in a recession.

gold will go up versus all world currency's as the printing presses work overtime.

that's not to say gold could not go to $1500-1600 sometime this year , then it will be a bigger buy.

big money likes to go for the biggest returns , the big killer for gold would be if interest rates go up quite a bit.

[The Gold Standard]

The one thing to keep in mind about gold prices is that the price of real physical gold will be much higher than the spot price when people realize that most people invested in gold are holding nothing but paper backed by nothing. They are essentially using paper to inflate gold and drive down the price of real gold. When that scam blows up the price of real gold will skyrocket.

[flynn]

The dollar is up against the Euro yes. People are panicking to pick up the dollar as a safe house relative to the Euro. Long term, gold and silver is supreme.

[Bossobass]

Silver is up 30% in 60 days. I'd say that's as short term as it gets and beat the hell out of hanging onto dollars.

Since September '08, silver is up 300% with huge upside potential.

Meanwhile, debt has not been written down one iota. Trillions have been printed to prop up the debt.

The guy's insane and couldn't have called it more the opposite of reality.

You can have the dollar, I'm in silver. We'll see what happens.

Bosso

[Guzabuza]

"BULLET: GOLD: More on the sell-off in April COMEX gold -- an.
29-vlj-2012
GOLD: More on the sell-off in April COMEX gold -- sources saying an
estimated 55,000 gold futures contracts were sold withing a 12-minute
window."

So lets do some math, 55000 * 100 (each contract is 100 ounces) = 5500000 ounces. Looking at April comex gold futures chart i would say most sales were done between 1730-1750 $. So 5500000 * take average of 1740 $ = 9,570,000,000. Somebody sold 10 billion of gold in 12 minutes. Who the $#@! has 10 billion $ of gold sitting around on his balance sheet ? If you cant send these cocksukers to jail then either join them and short or thank them and look at it like a gift and buy cheaper pm.

I would rather want to see these $#@!s to be be-headed but since i am just a common serf the only thing i can do is to buy cheaper pm

[ILUVRP]

mainly headge funds , they just move in mass which ever way the markets move , their margin is only about 6% , thats a lot of leverage .

its a game to these guys , gold at $1700/oz= $170,000/contract X 55000=$9.35 billion face value

gold at $1700/oz=$170,000/contract X .06 =$10,200 X 55000= $561 million ( with 6% margin ).

leverage is a big mover. also as soon as gold price went below the maintance of the margin people started receiving margin calls to get the margin back up , i am sure thousands said " no way get me out " , which leed to more selling , these things feed on themselves.

[Trigonx]

All I know is that it's dropping all the gains from the past 2 days in less than one hour. At the time of posting this silver is back to 35.50

And I bought some silver on Monday and Tuesday, so silver is gonna drop under $30 now.

I have given up on timing, I just dollar average my purchases.


dammnn... $34.37 now. Over a dollar dropped after posting this less than 5 min ago.

[Guzabuza]

What deflation? ECB just pumped in 1 trillion euros into the banking system. BOE pumped another 50 billion pounds, Japan went all in and said they wont allow inflation under 1 %, noticed gold priced in YEN lately? The fed is STILL buying bonds and doing the twist, a form of interest manipulation. Have you seen oil and gas lately? Deflation wont be tolerated. He is right that the natural forces in the economy are deflationary, but central bank printing presses are more powerful. Go read Ron Pauls book , The Case For Gold. It is free on mises.org. Look at the index for wholesale prices going back from 1800-1980. I put all those numbers and made a graph to see it visually. From 1934, when Presdient Roosevelt made it illegal for people to hand in their fiat for gold there has been 1 year of deflation. That was in 2009 with a 2,5 annual deflation rate. In other words, since central banker 100% took over the issuance of monies in 77 years there has been 1 year of deflation.

Could the metals drop? Sure they can, in todays digital manipulated bull$#@! market everything can happen, will it change the fundamentals? no. For instances like todays bull$#@! drop in pm. The stock market is 100% rigged casino, where three guys behind a computer screen can sell 10 billion $ of gold or silver futures and drive down the price down 8 % . Price support the market was building for 1 week gets wiped out without any resistance in 30 min? Use these bull$#@! opportunities and hoard as much as you can.

[ctiger2]

Harry Dent is NOT correct. Harry predicted a crash for fall '11. WRONG!

Dent's advice is actually good fodder for the contrary investor.

[tmg19103]

I think Dent relies too much on age demographics and this is demonstrated in how he missed the housing bust. He only saw a "softening" instead of a collapse.

Age demographics do play a role. I follow the Austrian school mostly and what the Fed is doing, but you need to add many factors to the equation and age demographics is just one and not a panacea.

So far the Austrian school has been right on everything except rampant price inflation, and if you understand why we don't have rampant price inflation while having bigtime monetary inflation you are ahead of the game.

Still does not mean there are many investment options out there unless you are a skilled trader looking at options, commodities, shorts, etc.

[Guzabuza]

Thats the whole point of the takedown.

How many hedge funds have 561 million $ laying around just to cover the margin?? This not even a trade. There is not even any technical evidence to justify such a large trade. This is 100% speculation to drive down the price.

[ILUVRP]

thats one reason i keep posting that the CFTC should raise the margins on crude oil from 6% to 75% and run the funds out of crude mkt , also make all contracts that are bought delivery only , if you buy a contract you must take delivery.

you would see crude at $50-60/ba very fast.

headge funds have trillions of dollars .

[Aurave]

thats one reason i keep posting that the CFTC should raise the margins on crude oil from 6% to 75% and run the funds out of crude mkt , also make all contracts that are bought delivery only , if you buy a contract you must take delivery.

you would see crude at $50-60/ba very fast.

headge funds have trillions of dollars .

I don't think so. What you would see is liquidity in the futures market plummet, with producers and consumers finding it increasingly difficult to risk manage or hedge. Price volatility in commodities is generally known as an increasing linear function of scarcity; scarcity being defined as the inverse of inventory. A relatively illiquid futures market increases price volatility which wreaks havoc on inventory management. Futures markets for commodities play a very important and positive role in a free market especially in the realms of price discovery and price stability.

You would not see crude oil spot price drop in half from your proposals, what you would be more likely to see is massive price swings in short term periods as producers and consumers rush to lock in contracts knowing there was no guarantee of a strong secondary market after the break of any positive/negative news relevant to the market. Do not let yourself be misled into socialist type fallacies because of emotional reasons.

[ILUVRP]

I don't think so. What you would see is liquidity in the futures market plummet, with producers and consumers finding it increasingly difficult to risk manage or hedge. Price volatility in commodities is generally known as an increasing linear function of scarcity; scarcity being defined as the inverse of inventory. A relatively illiquid futures market increases price volatility which wreaks havoc on inventory management. Futures markets for commodities play a very important and positive role in a free market especially in the realms of price discovery and price stability.

You would not see crude oil spot price drop in half from your proposals, what you would be more likely to see is massive price swings in short term periods as producers and consumers rush to lock in contracts knowing there was no guarantee of a strong secondary market after the break of any positive/negative news relevant to the market. Do not let yourself be misled into socialist type fallacies because of emotional reasons.

Looks like something out of a text book , there is no scarcity of crude oil , there is no scarcity of gasoline , i do hate it when people call something they don't agree with socialist fallacies.-----i will repeat ---no commodity that is controlled by a cartel should be traded on our exchanges.

what don't you understand about in america we use 400 million gallons of gasoline everyday , we export about 120 million gallons of gas everyday. to me this is like selling planes/arms to germany/japan during ww2.

read what happened to silver in the early 80's when bunker hunt and 2 others tried to control the silver market , read what the CFTC did to him. silver went from about $50/oz to about $20/oz very fast.

Name me ONE commodity that is traded on our exchanges other than crude oil being under a cartel. this effects every american more than most understand , of which i feel very sorry for.


don't you understand your saying about liquidity makes no sence because 99% of the crude contracts are never delivered , its just a game , i will repeat the defin of commodity trading is----someone that does not have the product selling to someone that don't want the product , and both sides trying to make money-----

raising the margin will just cost them more if they want to play the game , making them take delivery will kill the game.

i will tack on a link about what goldman sachs ( one of the worse ) says , also read some of the comments.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...44dFUFvckdFpZA

you people wonder why gas / heating oil / diesel fuel is so high , there are companies that love money more than america , i guess the next time they need military help they should ask those they export to for help. check below.....


For the first time since 1949, the United States exported more gasoline, heating oil and diesel fuel last year than it imported, the Energy Department reported today.

Bloomberg writes that to offset weak U.S. demand, refiners exported 439,000 barrels a day more than were imported the year before. In 2010, daily imports averaged 269,000 barrels,

[Aurave]

I specifically defined a term and you chose to ignore it completely with what was effectively a straw man. You are aware of this or you are not, either way it doesn't bode well for any future discussion.

Half of your post is completely irrelevant to the point you wish to make by the way.

There is no convenience yield in precious metals futures, speculative storage is possible. Those conditions don't exist in any other commodity futures market.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

Looks like something out of a text book , there is no scarcity of crude oil , there is no scarcity of gasoline , i do hate it when people call something they don't agree with socialist fallacies.-----i will repeat ---no commodity that is controlled by a cartel should be traded on our exchanges.

It's a socialist fallacy because it involves government dictating things to businesses & people which is antithetic to free markets & liberty, it's none of government's business what commodities are traded on what exchanges, unless you believe in the socialist premise that government owns everything

In a free society, people have what we call "property rights" which allow private owners full discretion over their property & same holds true for exchanges as well as those trading on them

what don't you understand about in america we use 400 million gallons of gasoline everyday , we export about 120 million gallons of gas everyday. to me this is like selling planes/arms to germany/japan during ww2.

NationalSocialismForums is right around the corner, this is ronpaulforums so you're mistaken I think

read what happened to silver in the early 80's when bunker hunt and 2 others tried to control the silver market , read what the CFTC did to him. silver went from about $50/oz to about $20/oz very fast.

They had money, they bought silver in anticipation of inflation due to US going off gold-standard (buying gold was prohibited at the time) so what? Ron Paul has been buying gold & silver since the 70s too, & I'm sure if he had the kind of money Hunts had, he would've piled up on gold & silver as well, in fact, that's what most people here are doing right now
And it was very disingenuous of comex, they played all sorts of shenanigans as people running it were short-selling silver & they'd stake in causing the prices to fall so they played all kind of tricks like, even ceasing trading, to cause silver prices to fall, after that Volker massively raised interest-rates which was the primary determinant to keep the prices of gold & silver down after that, not to mention even a lot of central-banks dumped their reserves to say to people - hey, gold, silver, etc is useless, look, how good the toilet-paper-money is - so of course, the government had to demonize Hunt to move attention away from what was actually going on with inflation, if it had continued for a while, sooner or later there would have been cries from public to go back on gold-silver standard, Ron Paul was even on Gold Commission at the time

Name me ONE commodity that is traded on our exchanges other than crude oil being under a cartel. this effects every american more than most understand , of which i feel very sorry for.

I feel sorry for people who support Ron Paul & yet oppose the very principles that he's held dear for decades

Cartels CAN'T DICTATE PRICES, supply & demand do - unless of course, it's a coercive monopoly/cartel, which is usually government-enforced - healthcare is a decent example, but in this case I suppose it's more like thieves than cartels

BUT nobody is forcing to buy oil (unlike healthcare would be ) so the more prices rise, the demand falls & they've to lower prices to make profits, it's irrelevant what prices they "want" to sell it at, they do NOT stick to their guns, they're made up of self-interested individuals who want to make profits so when prices rise they automatically produce more oil which causes supply to increase & puts downward pressure on prices

Central-planning doesn't work for same reasons, just because they're cartel doesn't mean that they cease to be self-interested individuals, no the don't; people like you who think such planned cartels can work are poster-children for the failed central-planning programs

The fact that neither cartels nor speculators control prices can be realized from the fact that oil was about $150 before the collapse & in a short while it fell to $50, where were these cartels & speculators then? Why didn't they hold the price at $150??? It's simple, the demand just fell through the floor due to weaker outlook & deflating effect

And why are they at ~$100 right now, I mean they're cartels, right? And they can charge whatever they want, right? So why $100, why not $1000? How about $10000? Million? Why aren't they doing that? How about speculators, wouldn't they make a lot of money if it went $million/barrel? So why aren't they doing it?

BECAUSE none of them dictate prices, supply & demand does! Prices are products of supply & demand! The more prices go up, the more lucrative selling becomes which increases supply & pushes prices down!

don't you understand your saying about liquidity makes no sence because 99% of the crude contracts are never delivered , its just a game , i will repeat the defin of commodity trading is----someone that does not have the product selling to someone that don't want the product , and both sides trying to make money-----

You don't understand that those 99% is what keeps liquidity, otherwise the futures market would be stale, there'd be low volumes & very little trading if only actual buyers/sellers were allowed to trade & everyone else was driven They keep the markets liquid & keep up the volumes otherwise spreads would massively increase & volumes go down & there would be wild swings in prices leading to higher costs for actual buyers/sellers

Saying speculators increase prices is like saying that X + 1 - 1 = X + 1 , obviously, it equals only X, in short, when speculators buy, yes, they temporarily put upward pressure on price but they reverse the same when they square off so the net effect is nil, & that's why only the actual buyers/sellers & information about supply & demand can move prices in the long-run

So even if you get your wish of 75% margin, that's just going to drive speculators out & there will be FEWER people willing to trade at any given time, causing low volumes & low volumes mean higher spreads & therefore higher cost of trading & all you're going to get is wild swings in prices because there are only a few people willing to trade

Not to mention, you'd be asking actual buyers & sellers to unnecessarily lock more money for long periods which they could've put to better use & thereby it's only going to end up raising cost of pretty much everything in the economy

Are you part of OWS or something? I'd recommend you the communist-clique there - there you'd find a lot of people who hate on "rich evil basterds" that make money in ways that they don't understand & that's why they think it's bad because they can't do the same, seems like you suffered some losses in the futures-market & now, blaming the "those evil hedge-funds"

I'm just curious, why are you here? This movement is about personal liberty, property-rights, free markets & free trade, all of which Ron Paul stands for & for someone with the nick "I love RP", you seem to stand for almost everything Ron Paul stands AGAINST

If you really want to learn about futures & speculation then google "price discovery" & about the history of futures markets & why speculators are an important part of it

I don't think so. What you would see is liquidity in the futures market plummet, with producers and consumers finding it increasingly difficult to risk manage or hedge. Price volatility in commodities is generally known as an increasing linear function of scarcity; scarcity being defined as the inverse of inventory. A relatively illiquid futures market increases price volatility which wreaks havoc on inventory management. Futures markets for commodities play a very important and positive role in a free market especially in the realms of price discovery and price stability.

You would not see crude oil spot price drop in half from your proposals, what you would be more likely to see is massive price swings in short term periods as producers and consumers rush to lock in contracts knowing there was no guarantee of a strong secondary market after the break of any positive/negative news relevant to the market. Do not let yourself be misled into socialist type fallacies because of emotional reasons.

You wouldn't believe how many socialists are on these forums that have no clue about how the markets work & what property-rights mean & what Ron Paul stands for!

Welcome to the forums by the way, the more free marketers are here the better for the movement so that it doesn't get taken over by socialists

[Bossobass]

Cartels CAN'T DICTATE PRICES, supply & demand do - unless of course, it's a coercive monopoly/cartel, which is usually government-enforced - healthcare is a decent example, but in this case I suppose it's more like thieves than cartels

Wow.

BUT nobody is forcing to buy oil (unlike healthcare would be ) so the more prices rise, the demand falls & they've to lower prices to make profits, it's irrelevant what prices they "want" to sell it at, they do NOT stick to their guns, they're made up of self-interested individuals who want to make profits so when prices rise they automatically produce more oil which causes supply to increase & puts downward pressure on prices

Central-planning doesn't work for same reasons, just because they're cartel doesn't mean that they cease to be self-interested individuals, no the don't; people like you who think such planned cartels can work are poster-children for the failed central-planning programs

The fact that neither cartels nor speculators control prices can be realized from the fact that oil was about $150 before the collapse & in a short while it fell to $50, where were these cartels & speculators then? Why didn't they hold the price at $150??? It's simple, the demand just fell through the floor due to weaker outlook & deflating effect

And why are they at ~$100 right now, I mean they're cartels, right? And they can charge whatever they want, right? So why $100, why not $1000? How about $10000? Million? Why aren't they doing that? How about speculators, wouldn't they make a lot of money if it went $million/barrel? So why aren't they doing it?

BECAUSE none of them dictate prices, supply & demand does! Prices are products of supply & demand! The more prices go up, the more lucrative selling becomes which increases supply & pushes prices down!

Cartels exist and they control the markets completely (especially supply and demand).

"Competition is a sin." John D. Rockefeller

To use this method of airframe shock testing in economics engineering, the prices of commodities are shocked, and the public consumer reaction is monitored. The resulting echoes of the economic shock are interpreted theoretically by computers and the psycho-economic structure of the economy is thus discovered. It is by this process that partial differential and difference matrices are discovered that define the family household and make possible its evaluation as an economic industry (dissipative consumer structure).

Then the response of the household to future shocks can be predicted and manipulated, and society becomes a well-regulated animal with its reins under the control of a sophisticated computer-regulated social energy bookkeeping system.

Eventually, every individual element of the structure comes under computer control through a knowledge of personal preferences, such knowledge guaranteed by computer association of consumer preferences (UPC, etc.) with identified consumers (via use of credit card and later a permanent tattooed body number invisible under normal ambient light).

The above quote was written in 1979.

The point is that you don't have to raise the price to $1,000 to make record profits (Exxon/Mobil) when you control the market.

Do you think you could make untold riches if you knew exactly when a commodity would be shocked and what affect that would have on other commodities as well? Duh. It's the same as raising the price to $10,000, or, as high as you want to raise it.

Ron Paul advocates the return to a free market, but he most certainly doesn't preach that one exists today.

Monetary policy is controlled with no oversight. Energy is controlled by regional monopolies. Supply is controlled by covert and overt installation of puppet regimes. Demand is controlled by a media cartel. Your future income has already been determined and divided.

Romney is the guy whether they have to stuff ballots, rig the electronic voting machines, black out the rest of the field from public view, blatantly lie in the media, run smear campaigns, pour money into the chosen coffers or other. Or, I'm wrong and there are "free elections" as well as a "free market".

I'm astounded at anyone who believes the commodities (or any other) market is dictated by free market supply and demand... truly baffled.

[NewRightLibertarian]

How can people be predicting gold and silver to go down when the debt levels are only skyrocketing and the Fed is throwing trillions around and shows no signs of stopping their approach?

[Krugerrand]

How can people be predicting gold and silver to go down when the debt levels are only skyrocketing and the Fed is throwing trillions around and shows no signs of stopping their approach?

Not to agree or disagree with the OP, but a prediction in a spike in the USD relative to other currencies, even if short lived, would drop the price of gold during that spike. Other currencies collapsing before ours or other similar events could cause such a reaction.

[Shane Harris]

Not to agree or disagree with the OP, but a prediction in a spike in the USD relative to other currencies, even if short lived, would drop the price of gold during that spike. Other currencies collapsing before ours or other similar events could cause such a reaction.

most likely scenario imo. either way silver fundamentals are as good as ever. this could be a good buying opportunity

[ILUVRP]

today looked technical to me , looks like the shorts hung out to dry the longs , toward the close the people long that were waiting for a bounce to sell didn't get it and bailed out.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

How can people be predicting gold and silver to go down when the debt levels are only skyrocketing and the Fed is throwing trillions around and shows no signs of stopping their approach?

On technical chart factors, markets are all about mathamatics & price-charts reflect that so for people who are savvy at it can guess what levels the people who'd bought at a lower price will start selling to take profit, when they start selling, supply increases & prices start collapsing & those who know what's going on also jump in start short-selling to ride the temporary momentum downwards & then buy-back to square off & take profit at an opportune time

Prices are nothing but perception of buyers & sellers at any given time & the perception keeps changing continually in the short-run, irrespective of the long-term factors; fundamental factors only guide the long-term price-moves, not necessarily short-term ones

[pahs1994]

I hope so. I have been waiting for the right moment to BUY