Michigan Primary Preview

[PolicyReader]

http://electionate.com/2012/02/26/mi...imary-preview/

Just one day before the pivotal Michigan primary, polls show Romney leading Santorum by the slimmest margin. Over the last week, Romney’s standing was initially bolstered by a strong debate performance and a wave of negative advertisements. However, over the last 24 hours, the most recent polls show Romney’s ascent arrested, if not reversed.

On average, the five polls concluded on February 26 or later show Romney ahead by ~1%, including two polls showing Santorum with a narrow lead. The Rasmussen and Mitchell/Rosetta Stone polls show movement toward Santorum. After Romney’s well-received debate performance, Rasmussen showed Romney by 6% and Mitchell/Rosetta Stone found Romney ahead by 3%. More recent iterations of these polls show Romney and Santorum each up by 2% respectively, a shift of 4% and 5% toward Santorum...

It continues, a lot of good information there. The article dosen't take Paul into account at all which is *blah* but the rest of the information is very interesting/useful.

I highly recommend reading the article but for those with only a couple seconds to spare the upshot is that if Romney loses Michigan it could cost him the nomination. I never thought I'd be wishing good things for ol' frothy but this once I'm willing to make an exception.

[dancjm]

Imagine a final 2 of Santorum Vs Paul. I can't decide if it would be easier for Ron to go up against Romney or Santorum is a 1 vs 1 situation. I feel like the establishment/republican base will not be nearly as pro-Santorum as they are pro-Romney...

[PolicyReader]

I think Paul would fair even better in a two man race against Santorum. Paul has already shown in debates he can take it to Santorum and he's got plenty of martial to work with (picture Paul talking about how Rick doesn't think the Constitution really provides for a separation of church and state, or Doctor vs demagog on medical issues etc.) Actually here's the easiest thing to think of, consider what happened when Paul informed the audience at the last debate that Santorum was a fake

Yeah, I'd love to see that race (and I believe you're right a lot of Romney supporters aren't going to be anywhere near as motivated to support Santorum, so I'd bet some will stay home, some will go Paul and a few Santorum, but on balance I think our market share goes up under those conditions)

[J_White]

i dont think Romney will leave after Michigan loss, he needs to lose big on Super Tuesday to maybe make that happen.
it would be a blow for sure, but not the last one.

Santorum vs Paul as the last two standing ? that could be fun, but am not sure how the establishment would let that happen.
Gingrich endorsing Romney would be great news, if he is promised something.

[Butchie]

I'd rather go up against Santorum as well. Romney has an endless supply of money, plus I still say frothy will burn out, this whole "religious revival" thing is a nice gag and all but people are going to realize you aren't going to win the General with a Jim Jones wannabe.

[PolicyReader]

It's not a question of Romney dropping out of the race it's a question of which states, and how many delegates, he is positioned to win if he doesn't take MI.
There are a host of reasons (see article) why Romney needs MI and how not taking it would hurt him in many upcoming contests.
So the point isn't "after a loss here Romney will just go home" the point is "the repercussions of this loss could cost romney the chance at ultimately securing the nomination"

Here's another shorter article on the same subject (this time from the LA Times)
Michigan primary is a must-win for Mitt Romney

[alucard13mmfmj]

I think Paul would fair even better in a two man race against Santorum. Paul has already shown in debates he can take it to Santorum and he's got plenty of martial to work with (picture Paul talking about how Rick doesn't think the Constitution really provides for a separation of church and state, or Doctor vs demagog on medical issues etc.) Actually here's the easiest thing to think of, consider what happened when Paul informed the audience at the last debate that Santorum was a fake

Yeah, I'd love to see that race (and I believe you're right a lot of Romney supporters aren't going to be anywhere near as motivated to support Santorum, so I'd bet some will stay home, some will go Paul and a few Santorum, but on balance I think our market share goes up under those conditions)

Some people like to buy fake, counterfeit chinese goods =p