02/22/12 Intrade chances of Santorum becoming nominee...06%

[Agorism]

People keep viewing this as a 50-50 race between romney and Santorum but in reality Romney has a huge advantage on Santorum.

We seem sidetracked right now running ads against Santorum when there is no point to this stuff.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84328

Mitt Romney to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012

Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee
79.4%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Santorum to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012

Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee
6.0%
CHANCE Predict

Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012

Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee
5.2%
CHANCE Predict

Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012

Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee
3.0%
CHANCE Predict

[rambone]

I think its more about pulling away Santorum's supporters.

Santorum still carries an air of "conservatism." People think he's "the most consistent candidate."

Shattering their image of him could show them that there is another -- more consistent -- candidate out there.

So to me, the ads make sense.

People who are dense enough to pick Romney as their #1 choice may not be too big into fiscal conservatism anyways.

[rambone]

In other news, that Intrade thing is really embarrassing. Ron Paul is running 0.8% chance higher than people not even in the race. FML

[RDM]

In other news, that Intrade thing is really embarrassing. Ron Paul is running 0.8% chance higher than people not even in the race. FML

Now would be a good time to drop some coin, don't you think?