Maine Caucus Predictions and Results Page

[jllundqu]

I would like to start this threat to discuss the possibility of a RP win in MAINE and what a win/loss would mean for the campaign at large.

1. What are the chances of a 1st place finish in the Maine Caucus?

2. What would a 1st place finish mean?

3. What if we don't beat Romney in this particular contest?

I know about the whole "stealth delegate" strategy, so no need to go into depth there. I want to discuss, specifically, how we, the supporters, will react to these scenarios and go on to discuss the results as they are posted tomorrow evening.

[jllundqu]

I see INTRADE has him with a 25% chance...

blah

[ironj221]

I'm a little confused on his chance in Maine. All I hear about is how Ron Paul might win Maine but I haven't seen anyone state WHY they think that. Romney won last time wtih 50% and there have been no polls. Anyone care to explain why Paul is expected to even be close? I know watchthevote2012 has him winning with 500 votes in, but I really don't trust that all that much, should I?

[Jeffster]

I would like to start this threat

I knew it! I knew Ron Paul supporters were a threat!

[CaptUSA]

I'm a little confused on his chance in Maine. All I hear about is how Ron Paul might win Maine but I haven't seen anyone state WHY they think that. Romney won last time wtih 50% and there have been no polls. Anyone care to explain why Paul is expected to even be close? I know watchthevote2012 has him winning with 500 votes in, but I really don't trust that all that much, should I?

You may have answered your own question.

[thoughtomator]

let's wait for the results then discuss what it means... don't set up expectations that don't need to be there

[jllundqu]

I knew it! I knew Ron Paul supporters were a threat!

You caught me! +rep

[Xenliad]

You may have answered your own question.

Were there polls for it last time?

[jllundqu]

I sincerely do hope that we can have one in the "win" column shortly. Are there any other states where we might be favored to take 1st place?

[Feelgood]

I would like to start this threat to discuss the possibility of a RP win in MAINE and what a win/loss would mean for the campaign at large.

1. What are the chances of a 1st place finish in the Maine Caucus?

2. What would a 1st place finish mean?

3. What if we don't beat Romney in this particular contest?

1. Zero

2. Nothing. It would be ignored and they would just take him out, so the second place becomes the winner.

3. We continue on as we have been trying to collect delegates. A loss here is generally expected after all.

Don't you listen to the MSM?

[alucard13mmfmj]

1. Low, now that Romney is up there doing his thing

2. If we win, media will ignore it. similar to 2008. BUT, Ron Paul can say, hey I won a state.

3. We march on and hope Ron has enough money to get to the finish line.

[CarpeArgentum]

Interesting tidbit: In 2008, 78 people caucused in Westbrook (Cumberland Co). We got 17 votes. This year, there were a little over 30, and we had around 17 still, filling the delegation.

http://www.pressherald.com/news/paul...012-02-06.html

Keep pushing. Turnout is LOW. We can win this if we turnout our supporters!

[sailingaway]

they are pulling a lot of dirty tricks like creating new caucuses on one day notice so residents have little hope of knowing about them and they can be swamped by proRomney types. But we will do our best.

[jbuttell]

1. Low, now that Romney is up there doing his thing

2. If we win, media will ignore it. similar to 2008. BUT, Ron Paul can say, hey I won a state.

3. We march on and hope Ron has enough money to get to the finish line.

How is winning a state anything like 2008?

[RonPaulwillWin]

I see INTRADE has him with a 25% chance...

blah

It's jumped to 38.9 as of 1:30 pst

[Xelaetaks]

It seems we may be in a bit of trouble with Romney going up there now. Wish we could counter this. A win even ignored by the media would be helpful I think.

[GraspingForPeace]

It seems we may be in a bit of trouble with Romney going up there now. Wish we could counter this. A win even ignored by the media would be helpful I think.

Paul is going up as well..

[rp2012win]

Chance of a paul win are remote at best. I can not believe that Romney would be seen within 500 miles of maine if he thought there was any chance of coming in 2nd. If he just blew the state off and did not hold a rally Friday and attend caucuses on saturday, the media would have gladly ignored a loss there and moved on. Not now. Romney wins by at least 5 or 10%.

[GraspingForPeace]

Chance of a paul win are remote at best. I can not believe that Romney would be seen within 500 miles of maine if he thought there was any chance of coming in 2nd. If he just blew the state off and did not hold a rally Friday and attend caucuses on saturday, the media would have gladly ignored a loss there and moved on. Not now. Romney wins by at least 5 or 10%.

Or you could see this as Romney panicking from losing three caucuses and hopping to the last state where there is a chance he could get first. But seriously, what is with the EXTREME pessimism now? We have a chance to win a state and you people come out of the woodwork.

[Gray Fullbuster]

Not gonna win.

[braane]

Up to 43% on intrade. It's going to come down to the wire :O. Those are the best types of wins. Close wins get a lot publicity. Even being on the losing end of a close race will probably be alright too.

[JJ2]

they are pulling a lot of dirty tricks like creating new caucuses on one day notice so residents have little hope of knowing about them and they can be swamped by proRomney types. But we will do our best.

I think that's mainly to steal delegates. Shouldn't have much of an effect on the popular vote (unless it's really close).

[AngryCanadian]

It's jumped to 38.9 as of 1:30 pst

Please enough of this intrade Nonsense.

Ron paul is going to do well in Manie as for Intrade its nothing more then people placing bets and there money on whose going to win so not a real prediction.
I have seen a thread result page where Ron paul is leading with 40%.

[QWDC]

If he wins Maine, the moneybomb needs to start at midnight Saturday night. Need to capitalize off the momentum.

[rp2012win]

Or you could see this as Romney panicking from losing three caucuses and hopping to the last state where there is a chance he could get first. But seriously, what is with the EXTREME pessimism now? We have a chance to win a state and you people come out of the woodwork.

I believe the Romney team has info from the state GOP with the caucus results thus far and they are convinced he will win. Paul getting 2nd would not hurt near as bad if he busted his ass the final 72 hours and did all he could. Still, it might not have mattered much. Romney appears to be coasting to victory. 2nd place for Romney, with him attending several Maine caucuses on Saturday, would be a major blow to his candidacy. It would be a big news story. Romney team is confident.

[SCOTUSman]

Please enough of this intrade Nonsense.

Ron paul is going to do well in Manie as for Intrade its nothing more then people placing bets and there money on whose going to win so not a real prediction.
I have seen a thread result page where Ron paul is leading with 40%.

yea, but by only 27 votes...majority of the votes will come Saturday....

[RP Supporter]

Chance of a paul win are remote at best. I can not believe that Romney would be seen within 500 miles of maine if he thought there was any chance of coming in 2nd. If he just blew the state off and did not hold a rally Friday and attend caucuses on saturday, the media would have gladly ignored a loss there and moved on. Not now. Romney wins by at least 5 or 10%.

Not necessarily. Romney's lost the last three contests. If he loses a 4th, especially to unelectable Ron Paul of all people, the media will gleefully tear into him.

At this point, he's pretty much in a tough position either way. He either has to try to ignore Maine and downplay it( which won't work) or desperately compete there and hope he can pull out a victory by getting enough establishment people out. A loss after he competes will be worse then ignoring the state, but Romney's in a position where he can't afford to lose another state and have the narrative be for half a month his declining strength. He has no choice but to make a play here.

As for my prediction, I expect Paul to win by mid to high single digits. And of course, the media will briefly credit him and then talk about how this proves Romney's a weak candidate.

"Will Santorum be able to capitalize on this?"

[GraspingForPeace]

Not gonna win.

I see that there are multiple trolls on this forum...

[AngryCanadian]

I see that there are multiple trolls on this forum...

Yeah i see that lately.

[GraspingForPeace]

I believe the Romney team has info from the state GOP with the caucus results thus far and they are convinced he will win. Paul getting 2nd would not hurt near as bad if he busted his ass the final 72 hours and did all he could. Still, it might not have mattered much. Romney appears to be coasting to victory. 2nd place for Romney, with him attending several Maine caucuses on Saturday, would be a major blow to his candidacy. It would be a big news story. Romney team is confident.

So... you think that there is collusion between Romney and GOP officials?