THE REAL DELEGATE COUNT

[JulioForPaul]

**************ROMNEY 96 PAUL 47 GINGRICH 36 SANTORUM 28*************

I know we all see these random delegate counts in several publications or scrolling across CNN. They are all wildly different and seem like bad guesses. Truth is ....nobody really knows because states like Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado have not chosen any delegates yet, superdelegates will change their minds, and yet other delegates bound to Perry, Huntsman, and maybe others will be released.

Well..... I am here to go state by state and project the likely outcome of national delegates based on ground reports and a little history.

Iowa

Paul 10
Romney 6
Santorum 5
Gingrich 1


NH

Romney 8
Paul 4


SC

Gingrich 23
Romney 2


Florida

Romney 50


Nevada

Romney 14
Gingrich 6
Paul 5
Santorum 3


Minnesota

Paul 19
Santorum 9
Romney 6
Gingrich 3

Colorado

Santorum 11
Romney 10
Paul 9
Gingrich 3

TOTAL DELEGATES TO DATE (2/8)

ROMNEY 96
PAUL 47
GINGRICH 36
SANTORUM 28

Last election Paul almost doubled his take of delegates than would normally be apportioned to a candidate in caucus states because his followers were so committed and organized. I expect the same to happen this year... if not better. As for super delegates I have not added those (Romney has already picked up quite a few of those) as they are allowed to change their mind.

We are not doing that badly guys! Keep up the good work and remember: Vote for Paul, AND STAY AFTERWARDS TO BECOME A DELEGATE!

[eleganz]

I appreciate you doing this but you'll need to explain how you came to those conclusions by state and by candidate and their results.

THe reason I mention that is because it could be truly done 'scientifically' or it could just be an educated guess.

[tbone717]

I appreciate you doing this but you'll need to explain how you came to those conclusions by state and by candidate and their results.

THe reason I mention that is because it could be truly done 'scientifically' or it could just be an educated guess.

I am not sure how this was arrived at either. I believe the only states where delegates have been awarded are NH, SC, FL and NV. The others still have their state conventions before the delegates are awarded. IA & MN are unbound, CO will be bound as far as I understand the party rules.

thegreenpapers.com is helpful for this.

[JulioForPaul]

In 2008 Paul roughly got 150-200% over his projected share of delegates in caucus states. I just did the same to this year's percentages. I took them disproportionately away from Gingrich and Santorum because of their lack of organization and the idea that people deciding on a candidate at the last second are less likely to stick around to become a delegate. I gave Romney roughly what he was projected because, even though his supporters are less enthusiastic, he is organized.

[JulioForPaul]

I am not sure how this was arrived at either. I believe the only states where delegates have been awarded are NH, SC, FL and NV. The others still have their state conventions before the delegates are awarded. IA & MN are unbound, CO will be bound as far as I understand the party rules.

thegreenpapers.com is helpful for this.

Iowa, Minnesota, and Colorado are all unbound. It is very realistic to project Paul getting double his "voting percentage" in delegates.

[mmadness]

Even in bound states, a motion could be put forth at the state convention to send the delegation to the RNC as unbound delegates.

[floridasun1983]

So basically this is just your best guess?

[JulioForPaul]

So basically this is just your best guess?

If anybody wants to argue that Paul will get less or more.... feel free to. All that is above is based on the actual results of bound delegates and a conservative estimate of what Paul gets in an unbound caucus. The point is that Paul is likely doing much better than is being reported.

[carterm]

nice work, i'm not going to yell at you for making an educated approximation.