Tipping Point

[millercards]

Saw a young woman say after the debate that she thought Ron Paul was the best one up there because he was straight forward with his answer and the other guys seemed to be just attacking each other.

I think this is becoming more and more common among regular people. (Not counting the converted Paullites)

I think there is also a large mass of people that still are hesitant because we seem 'kooky' or whatever word the media feeds them. It seems there are many hesitant to support Paul because of his unelectability propaganda.

At some point though... you would have to think.... there will be a TIPPING POINT.

At some point, people will see the percentages, start believing Paul has a chance, and they'll join the good fight.

The climb will then gain momentum (grassrooted converts + tipping point converts).

More people will join as our vote totals grow.

At some point, this momentum could tip.... and the votes would start to Pour in. If and once we find that point, I think it's over, we win.

Thoughts on this? How do we get to the Tipping Point? What percentage of votes do we need? 30+ in 2 consecutive states?

[cindy25]

1 win

[Article V]

Science says if 15% of a population remain unshakeable in their belief, it causes a groundswell that allows the idea to flourish at an exponential rate.

So I'd say the tipping point would be regularly polling over 15% in the national Real Clear Politics average. We're close to getting over 15% for the first time there, but who knows what percentage of that 15% is unshakeable. That's why we need to be steadily over 15%.

Newt has done it, Romney has done it, Santorum has not, Ron Paul has not. If we can hit it steadily before Santorum, we have a real path to victory. If not, it will become that much harder because we'll have one more candidate that people view as realistic competing in the mix.

[millercards]

1 win, that'd be nice.

I think you could be right. If we can take first in a state soon, we should get votes from people that now see his electability, people that see the first and decide to finally check him out and have their Ron Paul Moment, and even some bandwagon jumpers.

You're right, that would be huge.

Let's get Nevada!

[hueylong]

16.5% nationally. according to mosely's law, 16.5% is the point in which you start moving up the curve on the diffusion of innovation.

we will need to adjust our messaging slightly at that point to account for the fact that we are winning.

[millercards]

That's exactly what was going on in my head. That groundswell that just keeps gaining momentum and energy, building off itself.

In my head it sounded like a Tipping Point.

[TER]

Nevada FTW!

[european]

lol, I just made a post on this topic. Let me quote myself
And the tipping point is much lower then 30% of the republican voters. The tipping point has been investigated a lot already and it more at the 16%. The reasoning is it reflects the way people think and make judgements. And it appears to be this 16%. That is a natural ceiling that has to be breached. And we went through that ceiling already which prooves there is a big momentum for us right now. But it also shows that the way the message is being put foreward has to be altered a bit. It should be tweaked in a way that the new target audience understands and accepts it. One of which is making a case that RP is electable and for that I think he has to become more defiant (but I guess this part is open for debat).

Changing a meme is hard, it takes time and dedication and any growth this movement makes due to this electoral process is a win. That's why dr Paul always wins. And I really hope dr Paul wins because the meme suddenly goes exponential, this might just happen. We have reached the tipping point of 16% so all is possible. And time will tell if we make it this election or next election. The more effort is made, the bigger the odds it will happen this election cycle.



If one says that the 2007 election started with the innovators (technologists), in the last 4 years we got the early adopters (visionaries) in. And now we need to get the pragmatics in to get the early majority. And that it is all we need to get to win this republican election. Then the conservatives will join in, as will the sceptics. And from the independent and democratic side we will get the innovators as well as a big portion of the early adopters and you see them voting RP already.

This is also why I do think dr Paul will gain a lot if he makes slight adjustments to his style right now. As do we the grassroots. We got the innovaters and early adopters, now we have to focus on the early majority.

edit:
A meme (play /ˈmiːm/[1]) is "an idea, behavior or style that spreads from person to person within a culture."[2] A meme acts as a unit for carrying cultural ideas, symbols or practices, which can be transmitted from one mind to another through writing, speech, gestures, rituals or other imitable phenomena
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme
And this is why it the Paul campaign is also called the Revolution, because it is a different meme that is put foreward.

[Kandilynn]

I think the people in Nevada need to be showing people how Ron Paul is electable. If he wins Nevada, no one can say he's not going to win. It's early enough in the process that it will give the campaign huge forward momentum going into Super Tuesday, and he will start to really collect delegates.

[millercards]

Nice. These forums are awesome.

Sorry to repost what you did. Yours was great, mine was before bed ramblings.

I did really start the theory in my head... I had a lot of stuff going around, nothing like the law stated above, but really on the same path towards it. Blew my mind when I saw your graph, I felt like I pictured it before hand.

Exponential growth seems to be the main ingredient/symptom/factor/result/etc.

edit: reply to European... keep hitting 'reply' instead of 'reply with quote'

[JJ2]

1 win

That's exactly what I was going to say.

Let's win Nevada!!!

[Article V]

We've risen to a steady 14% nationally, while Santorum is dropping from his temporary small surge. As long as Newt and Romney whop Santorum in Florida, he may likely be finished (though he might not realize it at first). Simultaneously, we'll have to keep steadily inching upward, which is possible even with a last place finish in Florida b/c the campaign is managing expectations by publicly not competing there and looking ahead to the caucuses.

[millercards]

Suppose someone with a little more rep than me should start a thread titled:

Speculation: Win Nevada, and we just might win the whole thing.

Might help us all rally around the Nevada efforts.

[alucard13mmfmj]

itll be liek zombies.. growth is exponential. quarantine will be impossible soon.

[RonPaulMyPresident]

Winning Nevada will boost our confidence, and thats what all Ron Paul supporters need right now.

I have faith. People of Nevada love their freedom and liberties. We have to spread the message of Ron Paul in that state.

[Slobodan]

I have to be honest I don't think RP will win the nomination but we have to go all in because of the future, RP has shown the way to many of us, I had the belief before I heard of him 4 years ago, but he cemented that I was right in my belief and also he showed that there are millions like me. What I think will happen after this probably fails (I hope I'm wrong) is the the there will be more economic and political failure in the years to come and then hundreds (if not thousands) of pro-liberty candidates will run (and many win) office. I registered republican so I can vote in Florida on Jan 31st for Dr. Paul but it's annoying how they ignore him here on Tampa Bay news if it's not something bad the crony media can say. It's just horrible.

But one thing is true Dr. Paul has shown the way its on us now to fight long term for the cause there is no easy victory here and we have to stay the course. I'm all in, and I have a feeling 4 or 8 years from now we will double or triple our pro-liberty base, that's my prediction! One thing is sure, the half a dozen countries I lived in, only USA has a chance for real liberty the others don't but will if we can win here they will copy us, but they will not be first i'm sure of it. So we have to fight for liberty with all our energy its' worth it, I just don't want to think where US is heading if this keep moving to the left un-opposed.

[RonPaulMyPresident]

I have to be honest I don't think RP will win the nomination but we have to go all in because of the future, RP has shown the way to many of us, I had the belief before I heard of him 4 years ago, but he cemented that I was right in my belief and also he showed that there are millions like me. What I think will happen after this probably fails (I hope I'm wrong) is the the there will be more economic and political failure in the years to come and then hundreds (if not thousands) of pro-liberty candidates will run (and many win) office. I registered republican so I can vote in Florida on Jan 31st for Dr. Paul but it's annoying how they ignore him here on Tampa Bay news if it's not something bad the crony media can say. It's just horrible.

But one thing is true Dr. Paul has shown the way its on us now to fight long term for the cause there is no easy victory here and we have to stay the course. I'm all in, and I have a feeling 4 or 8 years from now we will double or triple our pro-liberty base, that's my prediction! One thing is sure, the half a dozen countries I lived in, only USA has a chance for real liberty the others don't but will if we can win here they will copy us, but they will not be first i'm sure of it. So we have to fight for liberty with all our energy its' worth it, I just don't want to think where US is heading if this keep moving to the left un-opposed.

Get rid of the negative energy and dont share your negative energy with others. The race has just started.

Watch my video

[affa]

would it make sense for the campaign, or a superpac, to simply build off this tipping point meme?

Something like:

NEVADA: Show America what liberty really means! Vote Ron Paul. Win Nevada, Win the Presidency!

[Article V]

Get rid of the negative energy and dont share your negative energy with others. The race has just started.

^^This. It's the same advice Sam Adams used to give the original revolutionaries who founded this nation: always keep a positive, upbeat, winning attitude; never let anyone see you doubt and question your ability to succeed, because success is the only option and we must not sew seeds of doubt.

Hold your ground, freedom fighters. More will join soon if we stand strong and unshakeable.

[millercards]

would it make sense for the campaign, or a superpac, to simply build off this tipping point meme?

Something like:

NEVADA: Show America what liberty really means! Vote Ron Paul. Win Nevada, Win the Presidency!

Apply Dr. Paul's "What If" Theory.

What if it works? We win Nevada and get crazy momentum.

What if it doesn't? We still get a lot more votes and continue great momentum.

I think we need to really attack one of these states before Super Tuesday and make sure we at least get 1. Without doing some research, I'm not sure which is the best state to attack... this is where I let the elder statesmen of RPF inform us.

[Article V]

would it make sense for the campaign, or a superpac, to simply build off this tipping point meme?

Something like:

NEVADA: Show America what liberty really means! Vote Ron Paul. Win Nevada, Win the Presidency!

No, because we're not absolutists. It's not about Nevada. We've just got to keep plugging away and keep standing strong. Our numbers are increasing. Exponential growth WILL happen, but we can't pinpoint exactly when the message will catch; perhaps it will be Nevada, perhaps it will be mid-February, perhaps it will be later. It'll happen, just stand strong.

[Article V]

We should try to win CPAC 2012 though. It's the last big event during an empty February. If we win Nevada and CPAC, we garner a lot of press that can't be dismissed till March when more states come into the mix.

Nevada and CPAC. Plan accordingly.

[millercards]

I like both sides of thinking.... but I just can't imagine what momentum would come from taking 1st in a state soon.

Especially if it's a state before Super Tuesday. If we win our first state there, the media could let it go.

If we win one before when it's the highlight of the political news world, it will be impossible to ignore us. Even if we're totally blown off like we should expect to be, outsiders would see that 1st place finish and take notice.

[european]

Nice. These forums are awesome.

Sorry to repost what you did. Yours was great, mine was before bed ramblings.

I did really start the theory in my head... I had a lot of stuff going around, nothing like the law stated above, but really on the same path towards it. Blew my mind when I saw your graph, I felt like I pictured it before hand.

Exponential growth seems to be the main ingredient/symptom/factor/result/etc.

edit: reply to European... keep hitting 'reply' instead of 'reply with quote'

haha no problem, and welcome to the Ron Paul Forums. I'm very happy to see new people joining in. This is a marvelous place to be indeed. The grassroots central is good for keeping up with the latest news, and the other forums are good for background or specific information.
And the post I made was a reply in some other thread, so it makes sense you didnt see it. And reposting is no problem at all. I'm happy to contribute to this fellowship that we all are in. And i'm gonna give you +rep for this thread.

To add some information to my former post.

Focussing in on the Republican voters: we are at that 16% level. And the premise is that Ron Paul wins if he gets 50% +1 of the votes. (in case of a 2-men race).

Having the first 16% means you have most of the people who behave sceptic (in a positive way) and want to get information and decide for themselves what the outcome should be: they want to make up their own mind. This is what these people are like and for them it makes a lot of sense to accept Ron Paul. These are also the people who want to educate themselves. And this is perfectly in line with the people who go on the internet and do research themselves. So it really fits the profile.

The early marjority has another set of personal wishes. One of them being less motivated to do a lot of research themselves. The do have a lot of social contacts and are willing to listen to their network (whether it be friends, family, email, tv, etc). They are open minded and are willing to try something new, which has already prooved itself (to others). So they want positive feedback on the message. This means what are the solutions?

We can point out the problem: huge debt and give them 2 scenario's: #1Newt/Rick/Mitt or #2Ron and take the time to explain it and answer their questions.
Also about foreign policy #1Newt/Rick/Mitt or #2Ron and do just the same. I once saw a comparisonmatrix on this forums and that could be a good solution. Maybe like: protect the borders in Germany or the borders between the US and Mexico? Where do you want us to spend this money? The answer ofcourse is in the US, and if it makes sense to you it makes sense to them!

Or just give them a picture and ask on which military bases in Germany they want to spend money and which German regions they want to stimulate the economy. For having those soldiers there, means they spend their money there, thus stimulating the economy. I have seen myself closing one of the bases nearby and the economy crumbled, so it is true that having a base is good for the local economy and the local German cities and states want to keep them there for providing work to the locals. And also let them pick which ones should be closed so the military can be transfered to the US and spend their income back at home to stimulate the American economy.
Here is a picture I found on wikipedia:

There are about 53,000 American military in Germany. You can do the math how much they spend there.

For a list of countries you can check it out here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...ry_deployments

And above all: do not go into defense while talking to the early majority. If they don't agree, ask them why not, and also what candidate has an alternative. And discuss on the bad sides of that other candidate (which is most likely spending the US into bankruptcy). Their concerns are real, discover them, know they are important and show the disadvantages of the other candidates and the positives of Ron Paul. Give the message the credibility it has and deserves.

Since this is politics and not your average new product:
Never forget that Ron Paul is going to cut 1 trillion dollar! That is a lot of money that stops comming out of your taxpaying pockets (or stops being borrowed from China), and a lot of people and companies will loose a lot of income because of that. And they don't want to loose their piece of the pie, so they will do all they can to discredit Paul to stop him. And also the major news networks know they earn a lot when they cover wars. People tune in to see what is happening, thus having a lot of viewers, thus making their commerce breaks more watched, thus selling the commercebreak minutes for more money per second. It is part of their businesmodel, and as a journalist once said: half of the pressroom will loose their job when Paul becomes President, so there might be a conflict of interest. </end rant>

[cindy25]

read or listen to the Tipping Point; you will be convinced that if Ron wins Nevada he can start measuring the drapes in the White House.

Mitt loses NV and he is finished. Newt vs Ron one on one is no problem. the establishment knows Newt would lose in a landslide, and they would rather keep their house and senate with a President Paul (who they will assume they can tame)

[InTradePro]

Tipping Point is near. I think it will shock some people here (in a good way), when it takes off.

The negative battle of Romney-Gringrich will help Dr Paul nationally because it will become easier to reinforce the negatives of other candidates.

[Liberty74]

There needs to be some type of unforeseen event to happen before people become awake and join us. This theory that people are sitting on the side in mass for Paul is a myth. He has very high unfavorables due to the talk radio damage done about his foreign policy. Ron needs to address this before any tipping point can occur.

[SilentBull]

The Ron Paul Explosion, explained by the law of diffusion of innovation.

[mosquitobite]

A normally rabid anti-Paul lady tried to paint RP's FP is cRaZy stance last night. (we declared war on Iran, they're responding)
I responded:

If Russia sanctioned us and blocked imports from us, would we consider that an act of war?

Or, another way of looking at it, if China put a war ship in the Gulf of Mexico "just to protect their interests (in our debt we owe them)" would we consider THAT an act of war?

Why is it OK, because it's the USA doing it?

And another thing a friend mentioned today... if we didn't have bases all over Europe and elsewhere to help sovereign nations defend themselves... would they be able to afford their socialistic health care programs? (If they had to spend money for their own defense that is?)

Normally she uses ad-hominem attacks and just sticks with the HA! RP is cRaZy! stance. But last night?

I agree, we need to get out of many nations, but no, not the ones that aren't prepared to stablilize themselves since they will fall to our enemies. Yeah, I get what you are saying.

I had to pick my jaw up off the floor. Because...um yeah... tipping point!

[mosquitobite]

Or just give them a picture and ask on which military bases in Germany they want to spend money and which German regions they want to stimulate the economy. For having those soldiers there, means they spend their money there, thus stimulating the economy. I have seen myself closing one of the bases nearby and the economy crumbled, so it is true that having a base is good for the local economy and the local German cities and states want to keep them there for providing work to the locals. And also let them pick which ones should be closed so the military can be transfered to the US and spend their income back at home to stimulate the American economy.

There are about 53,000 American military in Germany. You can do the math how much they spend there.

For a list of countries you can check it out here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...ry_deployments

And above all: do not go into defense while talking to the early majority. If they don't agree, ask them why not, and also what candidate has an alternative. And discuss on the bad sides of that other candidate (which is most likely spending the US into bankruptcy). Their concerns are real, discover them, know they are important and show the disadvantages of the other candidates and the positives of Ron Paul. Give the message the credibility it has and deserves.

Since this is politics and not your average new product:
Never forget that Ron Paul is going to cut 1 trillion dollar! That is a lot of money that stops comming out of your taxpaying pockets (or stops being borrowed from China), and a lot of people and companies will loose a lot of income because of that. And they don't want to loose their piece of the pie, so they will do all they can to discredit Paul to stop him. And also the major news networks know they earn a lot when they cover wars. People tune in to see what is happening, thus having a lot of viewers, thus making their commerce breaks more watched, thus selling the commercebreak minutes for more money per second. It is part of their businesmodel, and as a journalist once said: half of the pressroom will loose their job when Paul becomes President, so there might be a conflict of interest. </end rant>

Now, add in BRAC
http://www.brac.gov/

Closing bases AT HOME, and instead supplementing other nation's defense...