http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/16/us...gate-math.html
a lot more at linkBut that is a fallback strategy, and Mr. Paul and his advisers say they are in it to win. They see a route to obtaining the 1,144 delegates needed by not overemphasizing primaries in expensive media markets, especially those where it is harder for independents to vote, and focusing on less-flashy contests where the expected cost per delegate is weighted more in their favor.
They will also try to win delegates through the machinery of state parties, where Paul supporters are now embedded in the apparatus. In Iowa, for example, whose delegates are not explicitly tied to caucus results, they believe they can take delegates that might otherwise be awarded to Rick Santorum, who essentially tied for first place with Mr. Romney, one Paul official said.
This “Moneyball”-like approach to delegates, which takes a page from the 2008 campaign of Barack Obama, is about to be put into play. Mr. Paul may make only one stop in Florida before that state’s Jan. 31 primary and will instead focus his efforts after the South Carolina primary on Saturday on caucuses in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Nevada and other places where the cost of television and mail programs is less expensive and where election rules favor his strategy.
People close to the Paul campaign say it would cost them $9 million to $10 million to run an effective campaign in Florida, where only about 50 delegates are at stake. Florida is a closed primary, so independent voters important to Mr. Paul’s strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire cannot register just before the election. The state is also a winner-take-all contest, meaning only the victor walks away with delegates.
“There are four big caucuses coming up, with twice as many delegates as Florida, that will cost a third as much money, and we are focused on those,” one Paul official said.
With 28 delegates at stake, North Dakota also illustrates the strategy: the Paul campaign estimates that it will cost just $500,000 to run an effective campaign there, and delegates are awarded proportionately, so even if they do not finish first they could walk away with a decent allotment.
Site Information
About Us
- RonPaulForums.com is an independent grassroots outfit not officially connected to Ron Paul but dedicated to his mission. For more information see our Mission Statement.
Connect With Us