Ben Swann "Reality Check" The truth behind the Republican delegate numbers

[Tyler_Durden]

Wasn't sure if this was posted here yet or not:

http://www.fox19.com/story/16502235/...legate-numbers

[slamhead]

Love the end. This is very encouraging. Can you say brokered convention? We could make history with this. Abraham Lincoln won the nomination at a brokered convention. On super Tuesday if Romney does not get 50% of the votes in the states the the delegates get proportioned.

[harikaried]

My own research shows that what Ben reported is the truth! Although he seems pretty good at finding truth by himself.

The ending was somewhat spun in favor of Ron Paul though. Just because he got reports from several delegates not voting for Romney but for Paul isn't /that/ amazing. There's 1784 precincts with probably at least 10 delegates each (the 2 precincts I was at had ~20 delegates each). So having some delegates out of 20k+ supporting Ron Paul isn't too hard to do.

[slamhead]

My own research shows that what Ben reported is the truth! Although he seems pretty good at finding truth by himself.

The ending was somewhat spun in favor of Ron Paul though. Just because he got reports from several delegates not voting for Romney but for Paul isn't /that/ amazing. There's 1784 precincts with probably at least 10 delegates each (the 2 precincts I was at had ~20 delegates each). So having some delegates out of 20k+ supporting Ron Paul isn't too hard to do.

Yes true but incase you missed it there was an article published just after Iowa suggesting that Ron Paul may have secretly won Iowa because his supporters stayed around for delegate positions. From here to the county and state conventions this could carry forward and a majority of 25 delegates out of Iowa bound to FL could be Ron Paul supporters. As I understand it, if a candidate does not get a majority in the first round of voting it then becomes brokered. In the second round of voting the delegates can then vote for whom they choose. I know that some states require there delegates to stick with the winning candidate until after the 2nd or 3rd round of voting. A brokered convention would be very interesting.

[green73]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZsFzf-Fnkc

[green73]

http://www.reddit.com/r/ronpaul/comm...he_republican/

[slamhead]

http://www.reddit.com/r/ronpaul/comm...he_republican/

I think the people over at redstate just got hit with a clue-by-four. :-)

[The Magic Hoof]

What are the chances of the Romney, Santorum and etc delegates voting for Paul at the last minute?

[sailingaway]

We'd have to persuade the individual people if they are unbound delegates. But generally that is possible only when the candidate drops out. The party has all sorts of games they play to make sure the delegates are going to vote the way the party wants them too, but in Nevada we pulled it out -- so they ran out of the state convention, turning off the lights to destroy quorum because they didn't have enough votes to recess. They wanted the delegates to vote for McCain, but Romney had dropped out, and RON PAUL had come in second in NV, not McCain.

[slamhead]

What are the chances of the Romney, Santorum and etc delegates voting for Paul at the last minute?

Well the delegates are bound to vote for "their" candidate in the first round of voting. The actually person may be a Ron Paul supporter. If he is from a state where he is to represent Romney's win, he is released to vote for Ron Paul after the first round. Some states require their delegates to stay with "their" candidate after the second or third vote also...IIRC. My only question is that if any delegates going to National are "unbound" in the first round of voting.

[harikaried]

What are the chances of the Romney, Santorum and etc delegates voting for Paul at the last minute?

If you really mean "Romney's hard delegates", they have to vote for Romney in the first round.

If you're referring to delegates from Iowa, they're all soft unbound delegates and can vote for anyone they like in the first round.

[Christopher_RC]

[BamaFanNKy]

So Ron has 3. Kind of disappointing.

[MsDoodahs]

NICE thank you for posting!

[bobburn]

He has 3 hard, and 7 "soft delegates" that have stated they will be voting for Paul at the convention. Unless they change their mind (delegates sometimes do, but I think most of us know that once you accept Paul's message you don't change your mind), Paul has 10 delegates.

[rp713]

So Ron has 3. Kind of disappointing.

yeah but our people are staying after the elections to become delegates so they can vote for ron. i believe we'll have the majority of delegates when its all said and done. i know im going to try in my area.

[TheLasersShadow]

HAHA Romney wins twice and we're still beating him!! Hear what he said at the end... 7 Iowa delegates are going to vote RP so thats 10 for RP, 7 for Romney and 2 for Huntsman.

[mavtek]

Don't worry guys, I'd be willing to bet we killed it in Iowa and will get the majority of the delegates at the state convention.

[Christopher_RC]

Don't worry guys, I'd be willing to bet we killed it in Iowa and will get the majority of the delegates at the state convention.

Yeah the way I understood it is we have at least 7 in Iowa and good chance we have more then that

[Tod]

http://www.fox19.com/story/16502235/...legate-numbers

[Travlyr]

So the eventual nominee needs at least 1144 delegate votes to win. This nomination process is far from over.

So far,
Mitt Romney has 7 committed delegates.
Ron Paul has 3 committed delegates.
Jon Huntsman has 2 committed delegates.

Let's get Senator Jim DeMint on our side and win South Carolina.

[nbruno322]

This should be made "sticky" def helps clear up some of the confusion about delegates...would like to see him do more pieces focused on explaining the delegate process since this will be a long and lengthy battle for the nomination

[mmadness]

Yes true but incase you missed it there was an article published just after Iowa suggesting that Ron Paul may have secretly won Iowa because his supporters stayed around for delegate positions. From here to the county and state conventions this could carry forward and a majority of 25 delegates out of Iowa bound to FL could be Ron Paul supporters. As I understand it, if a candidate does not get a majority in the first round of voting it then becomes brokered. In the second round of voting the delegates can then vote for whom they choose. I know that some states require there delegates to stick with the winning candidate until after the 2nd or 3rd round of voting. A brokered convention would be very interesting.

This is the most likely way I see it playing out that Dr. Paul wins the nomination. Of course, different states have different rules. Some will have x number of delegates unbound for the 1st round. I believe each state gets at least 3 unbound delegates (usually the state chair or 3 of the GOP leaders of that state). And some free up delegates in the first round, some for the second, etc. Also it will interesting to see what happens to the delegates which have been awarded to candidates who've dropped out. Do the candidates get to choose to unbind them or will there be some deal-making...

Bottom line, we have to have the numbers to make it work. And we can only do that by being organized.

For those of you who are not delegates already for RP, please check the thread in my signature and also do the work to find out if you can still be a delegate for RP. If so, what are you waiting for?

Do it, DO IT NAOOOO!

[rp2012win]

Nothing will matter if romney wins SC. The media will declare it over and the sheep will fall in line.

[mmadness]

So the eventual nominee needs at least 1144 delegate votes to win. This nomination process is far from over.

So far,
Mitt Romney has 7 committed delegates.
Ron Paul has 3 committed delegates.
Jon Huntsman has 2 committed delegates.

Let's get Senator Jim DeMint on our side and win South Carolina.

The numbers are higher than this if you count endorsements from Republican higher ups who are unpledged delegates, similar to the Democratic "superdelegates". If I recall, Romney has the overall lead in endorsed delegates.

[luctor-et-emergo]

California - 172 delegates
Texas - 155 delegates
New York - 95
Georgia - 76
Illinois - 69

---
These five states combined have a total of 567 delegates, which is about 50% of the delegates needed for nomination.

source: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Del.phtml

edit: IA+NH+SC=68 delegates total! It's all about perception!

[The_Ruffneck]

HAHA Romney wins twice and we're still beating him!! Hear what he said at the end... 7 Iowa delegates are going to vote RP so thats 10 for RP, 7 for Romney and 2 for Huntsman.

what about these superdelegates i keep hearing about?