100 Hours Left: Romney 23, Paul 21, Newt in 5th

[bobbyw24]

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are running neck-and-neck in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is surging and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich collapsing just four days before the state's Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news...ingrich-in-5th

[bronxboy10]

Drudge has a headline about 100 hours too. Getting close!

[specialkornflake]

I would be a bit distraught if any Ron Paul supporters in Iowa took a break right before the election thinking it is won, so I'm almost a little bit happy RP is two points behind....

[matt0611]

Isn't the margine off error 1 or 2% ?

We've always been a few percentages within Romney. We have the organization and the enthusiasm, it will be close but I think we will win by a few percent IMO.

[bobbyw24]

I would be a bit distraught if any Ron Paul supporters in Iowa took a break right before the election thinking it is won, so I'm almost a little bit happy RP is two points behind....

Right

[Bruno]

Newt Gingrich is unelectable.

Being in 2nd is best for motivation so Paul supporters don't get complacent.

ala Remember the Alamo, "Remember the Ames Straw Poll!" Every vote counts!

[bobbyw24]

Newt Gingrich is unelectable.

Being in 2nd is best for motivation so Paul supporters don't get complacent.

ala Remember the Alamo, "Remember the Ames Straw Poll!" Every vote counts!

How are things looking/sounding in Iowa??

[South Park Fan]

Did NBC/Marist include Independents in their sample?

[Feelgood]

Paul was just ahead by 4 points, and now behind by 2? A 6 point loss? And this is good????

[bluesc]

Paul was just ahead by 4 points, and now behind by 2? A 6 point loss? And this is good????

OMG LET'S PANIC!!!!11111!

[Havax]

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Because things seem to be moving, going to put final Iowa poll in the field tomorrow morning instead of tonight
33 seconds ago

what does this mean?

[South Park Fan]

Paul was just ahead by 4 points, and now behind by 2? A 6 point loss? And this is good????

As Herman Cain would say, those are apples and oranges. The one with us up 4 is PPP, which was the only pollster to correctly call the Florida primary last year. The one with us down 2 is NBC/Marist, which is actually an improvement from their previous poll.

[South Park Fan]

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Because things seem to be moving, going to put final Iowa poll in the field tomorrow morning instead of tonight
33 seconds ago

what does this mean?

PPP fears that surveying tonight would be too far away from the caucus given the dynamics of the situation.

[bluesc]

nvm

[DRV45N05]

The MOE is +/- 4.7%. That's larger than the PPP poll.

Not seeing anything about the breakdown of GOP vs. non-GOP voters in the LV category.

[BUSHLIED]

"Things seem to be moving"

This doesn't sound good to me. This might means that Santorum is gaining. Bachmann could be imploding and her voters are moving elsewhere. Eitherway, movement is not in our favor unless it is Ron pulling away...

[Havax]

"Things seem to be moving"

This doesn't sound good to me. This might means that Santorum is gaining. Bachmann could be imploding and her voters are moving elsewhere. Eitherway, movement is not in our favor unless it is Ron pulling away...

They aren't even polling yet. This is their perception based on other polls consensus that Santorum has risen some very recently.

[bluesc]

They aren't even polling yet. This is their perception based on other polls consensus that Santorum has risen some very recently.

You're correct.

[Drex]

What determines MOE?

[Aratus]

we must look at LARRY + CURLY to figure out MOE and what he is thinking?

[South Park Fan]

What determines MOE?

Sample size

[green73]

GE is a fascist merchant of death. No way I trust their polling.

[Austin]

From the article:

The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Dec. 27-28 of 2,905 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and of 433 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.7 percentage points).

Also, unlike the recent CNN-Time poll, the likely voter model in the NBC-Marist survey included independents and a few Democrats, and it measured some respondents by cell phone.