http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fi...primaries/iowa
Romney 48%, Ron Paul 37% chance to win
This is because of the ARG and insider polls that were screwy. The DMR poll will provide a clearer picture.
Romney and Paul are about even on Intrade at the moment.
Those are vacillating a lot. Small gains by either Paul or Romney in the last few weeks have really catapulted that candidate ahead in the win percentages. A few days ago Paul was at 60%.
Why is Nate giving this "We Ask America" group so much weight right now as compared to a week ago?
I'd never even heard this outfit.
Romney has a 63% chance of winning Iowa?
His projected vote for Paul is 18.7%??? In what universe? Ron has only polled lower than 20 once in the last 9 polls (and that poll was Republicans only)
Conspiracy theory: the media wants Ron to look like he is falling
I have no clue why he's giving so much weight to the We Ask America poll. If you take the Rasmussen and NBC polls, this is a 1-2 point race.
He's simply rating the most recent data the strongest. Doubt Nate agrees with his model at the moment.Originally Posted by pauliticalfan
Yeah. We still have work to do, but order does make a big difference to his model.
"Integrity means having to say things that people don't want to hear & especially to say things that the regime doesn't want to hear.” -Ron Paul
"Bathtub falls and police officers kill more Americans than terrorism, yet we've been asked to sacrifice our most sacred rights for fear of falling victim to it." -Edward Snowden
In the PPP, NBC, and Rass polls, we've gone up in all of them, right? I still think that's a good sign, even if we're not leading them.
He's gone up in everything. It is just that without the smears he'd have been more of the go to guy with Gingrich cratering. With media puffing and refusing to vett Santorum, he's getting a free pass and then some. But we have to work with the reality we have.
"Integrity means having to say things that people don't want to hear & especially to say things that the regime doesn't want to hear.” -Ron Paul
"Bathtub falls and police officers kill more Americans than terrorism, yet we've been asked to sacrifice our most sacred rights for fear of falling victim to it." -Edward Snowden
I like gurley's prediction the best.
"The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles." —Jeff Cooper
Out of suffering have emerged the strongest souls; the most massive characters are seared with scars.
Paul is up in those polls, but down in ARG, WeAskAmerica, and Insider Advantage. Obviously we're doing better with the better pollsters, but it's probably not nothing going on in those three polls Paul is down in.
I feel it in my gut too.
I believe all future polls will have much more "bunching" together of the candidates, especially at the top, in order to disguise the clear frontrunner. Then no voters can be surprised by the eventual outcome.
Carole
"Mr. Chairman, we have in this Country one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks, hereinafter called the Fed. The Fed has cheated the Government of these United States and the people of the United States out of enough money to pay the Nation's debt. The depredations and iniquities of the Fed has cost enough money to pay the National debt several times over. -Cong. Louis McFadden
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