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Thread: Romney in the lead in Iowa??

  1. #1

    Default Romney in the lead in Iowa??

    Whats with this new Rasmussen poll that has Romney in the lead by 5% in Iowa???



  • #2
    une plume de Libertée GunnyFreedom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gravik View Post
    Whats with this new Rasmussen poll that has Romney in the lead by 5% in Iowa???
    For some reason Rasmussen always low-balls Paul by ~4 points giver or take 2 or 3 as compared to other polls. I seem to recall Rasmussen doing the same in 2008, where Paul always outperformed Rasmussen predictions at the actual voting booth by 3-4 points too. I'm guessing it's something about Rasmussen's methodology that tends to exclude Paulers.

  • #3

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    You had me worried with that title. It's not any big deal. Rasmussen has always polled Ron lower than the other polls. They have a very tight screen for "likely voters." They only poll people who have voted in previous caucuses. So basically, Ron is getting 20% of the vote of people who have voted in previous caucuses. But when you add new voters on to that total, Ron's numbers will be quite a bit higher.
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    Member jsem's Avatar
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    It's not that new, it's a week old. I think it was already talked about.

    Rasmussen has always had a bias and underpolls Ron compared to other polls. Plus I learned long ago not to take their polls at face value, especially in R vs D races where they constantly overpoll the Republican candidate.

  • #5

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    Rasmussen is a propagandist. You need at least one fake poll in order to commit vote fraud. Then the pundits can point to that poll and say "look. it isn't fraud".

  • #6

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    5% Bias rule by FOX NEWS Corp pollster Scott Rasmussen.

    Roger Ailes sees to it that Scott Rasmussen is rewarded well for "Steering the Public".

    ...Just like Ailes' other public manipulator, Frank Luntz
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  • #7

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    Regardless of any of this, we need to be fighting in Iowa as if we were ten points behind! There are still lots of phone calls to be made in the Phone From Home program, and we need to make sure we can support the "Christmas with Ron Paul" folks in Iowa in any way we can!

  • #8

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    Ron went up from their last poll, so his RCP average went up. By RCP average Ron is ahead, but realistically, the margin is so narrow, and Mitt's machine is so efficient, we better not be taking anything for granted.
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  • #9

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    That poll actually brought Paul's RCP average up higher.
    Definition of political insanity: Voting for the same people expecting different results.

  • #10

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    i hate to tell you guys but ron is not far enough out in front of romney to be considered the clear winner in iowa this far from the vote .
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