Paul Jumps to 5% Nationally in Rasmussen Poll

[Exponent]

Rasmussen: "Ron Paul, in the aftermath of a huge fundraising day, jumps to 5%"

The 4% from back a week or two was apparently a bit of standard statistical fluctuation, and after he dropped back to 3% or lower, they didn't mention his name. This time, however, he suddenly jumped up to 5% (and this is a a four day rolling average, so if his previous days were, say, 5% (Tuesday, after the money bomb was complete), 4% (Monday, while the money bomb was in progress), and 3% (Sunday, before the money bomb), then to get a 5% overall, Wednesday's results (I'm assuming today's noon report covers polling done up through the previous evening; I doubt polling is done in the morning) would have to be at least 6%, assuming percentages at or above .5 are rounding up.

(3 + 4 + 5 + 6) / 4 = 4.5, or 5 rounded

But if the day before was only 3%, which I do believe it was, then that means the day that dropped out of the 4 day rolling average this time had to bring it down to 3%, and thus could be no higher than 1%.

(1 + 3 + 4 + 5) / 4 = 3.25

So more likely, it was something closer to 2%, 3%, 3%, 5%, meaning that this last individual day likely jumped up to 7%. Granted, they do a rolling average to avoid statistical fluctuations, and maybe it will bounce around between 4 and 7 from now on, for example. But I remember that when Huckabee started moving up, he really started moving up, and stayed there very well. Again, like I said last time Ron Paul got listed on this poll, I really hope it happens for him as well.

[Rivington Essex]

cant win with 5%. I think we need 50%.

[kylejack]

cant win with 5%. I think we need 50%.

Right, but we're finally significantly on the boards. We don't need 50%. 70% will be split by the pro-war guys. We only need a 20-30% plurality.

[Seanmc30]

cant win with 5%. I think we need 50%.

Agreed!!


But to turn a battleship around in a water puddle takes time...if we keep passionate the growth will be exponential!

[margomaps]

cant win with 5%. I think we need 50%.

We could conceivably win the GOP nomination with 25%.

[yongrel]

We could conceivably win the GOP nomination with 25%.

Less even.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

keep in mind.. this 5% is the old neocon vote, not counting our core and new GOP

[margomaps]

keep in mind.. this 5% is the old neocon vote, not counting our core and new GOP

It is? Who told you that?

[Patriot]

We could conceivably win the GOP nomination with 25%.

Does anyone know for certain what percentage we need to win the primary. Is it a simple majority or a 51% majority or will there need to be a run-off?

With 8 candidates running would a 13% majority give us (RP) the win?

[Fig]

I think I know why RP is doing so poorly in the polls. His supporters are not being polled! I know that sounds almost stupid, its so sophmoric, but here is what I think is happening:

Of the large national polls that are being conducted, that are being conducted to see who is leading in each party, the sample group is being stratified, obviously, into republicans and democrats. So, the ron paul movement is made up largely of libertarians, disaffected republicans and liberals who either want to end the war or are discovering they are really libertarians. NONE of these groups of people are considered in the polling body:

I'd say its highly likely that the national polls only include 'likely republican voters' who are likely considered by whether or not they voted in the last republican primary, and/or the main election as a republican!