A comparison of Iowa and New Hampshire; 2008 vs 2012 polling

[RileyE104]

Iowa

03/23/07 (American Research Group) - 0%
03/30/07 - 04/01/07 (Strategic Vision) - 1% among Republicans
04/27/07 - 04/30/07 (American Research Group) - 0%
05/18/07 - 05/20/07 (Strategic Vision) - 2% among Republicans
05/30/07 (Public Policy Polling) - 2% among Republicans
06/22/07 - 06/24/07 (Strategic Vision) - 2%
06/26/07 - 06/30/07 (American Research Group) - 1%
07/23/07 - 07/25/07 (Research 2000) - 1%
07/26/07 - 07/30/07 (American Research Group) - 1%
07/26/07 - 07/31/07 (ABC News / Washington Post) - 2%
08/17/07 - 08/18/07 (Newsmax / Zogby) - 3% among likely caucus goers
08/17/07 - 08/19/07 (Strategic Vision) - 3% among likely caucus goers
08/20/07 - 08/21/07 (McLaughlin & Associates) - 1%
08/26/07 - 08/29/07 (American Research Group) - 1%
09/06/07 - 09/10/07 (LA Times / Bloomberg) - 2%
09/21/07 - 09/23/07 (Strategic Vision) - 3%
09/26/07 - 09/27/07 (Newsweek) - 2% among Republicans and 5% among likely caucus voters
09/26/07 - 09/29/07 (American Research Group) - 2%

----- Paul appears to have gained a little traction once October came around..

10/01/07 - 10/03/07 (Des Moines Register) - 4%
10/02/07 - 10/03/07 (Insider Advantage) - 4%
10/10/07 & 10/14/07 (Rasmussen Reports) - 2%
10/12/07 - 10/14/07 (Strategic Vision) - 4%
10/26/07 - 10/29/07 (American Research Group) - 1%
11/06/07 - 11/07/07 (Zogby) - 4%
11/02/07 - 11/11/07 (CBS News / New York Times) - 4%
11/09/07 - 11/12/07 (Strategic Vision) - 5%, (Rasmussen Reports) - 4%
11/10/07 - 11/14/07 (America Research Group) - 3%
11/12/07 - 11/14/07 (KCCI Des Moines) - 5%
11/14/07 - 11/18/07 (ABC News / Washington Post) - 6%
11/07/07 - 11/25/07 (Pew Research Center) - 5%
11/23/07 - 11/25/07 (Strategic Vision) - 5%
11/26/07 - 11/27/07 (Rasmussen Reports) - 5%
11/25/07 - 11/28/07 (Des Moines Register) - 7%
11/26/07 - 11/29/07 (American Research Group) - 3%
11/20/07 - 12/02/07 (Strategic Vision) - 5%
12/03/07 - 12/06/07 (Mason Dixon) - 2%
12/05/07 - 12/06/07 (Newsweek) - 8%
12/10/07 (Rasmussen Reports) - 5%
12/08/07 - 12/10/07 (Strategic Vision) - 4% among Republicans
12/17/07 (Rasmussen Reports) - 6%
12/16/07 - 12/18/07 (Strategic Vision) - 5% among Republicans
12/16/07 - 12/19/07 (American Research Group) - 4%

----- It appears that around this time Paul's support above 5% started to solidify..

12/20/07 - 12/23/07 (American Research Group) - 10%
12/20/07 - 12/23/07 & 12/26/07 (LA Times / Bloomberg) - 2%
12/26/07 - 12/27/07 (Strategic Vision) - 4% among Republicans, (Research 2000 / Sioux City Journal) - 8%
12/26/07 - 12/28/07 (American Research Group) - 6%, (MSNBC / Mason Dixon) - 5%
12/26/07 - 12/29/07 (Zogby International) - 8%
12/26/07 - 12/30/07 (CNN / Opinion Research Corp.) - 8%
12/27/07 - 12/30/07 (Zogby International) - 7%, (Des Moines Register) - 9%
12/28/07 - 12/30/07 (Strategic Vision) - 4%
12/28/07 - 12/31/07 (Zogby International) - 7%
12/29/07 - 01/01/08 (Zogby International) - 9%
12/30/07 - 01/02/08 (Zogby International) - 10%
12/31/07 - 01/02/08 (American Research Group) - 6%
01/01/08 (Insider Advantage) - 7.1%

* Caucus RESULTS: 5th Place w/ 10% of the vote.



New Hampshire

01/15/07 - 01/17/07 (Zogby International) - 1%
02/01/07 - 02/05/07 (University of New Hampshire) - 1%
02/24/07 - 02/28/07 (Suffolk University) - 2%
03/07/07 - 03/12/07 (Franklin Pierce College / WBZ-TV) - 1%
03/23/07 (American Research Group) - 0%
04/02/07 - 04/03/07 (Zogby International) - 2%
04/27/07 - 04/30/07 (American Research Group) - 0%
05/15/07 - 05/16/07 (Zogby) - 3%
05/23/07 - 05/25/07 (American Research Group) - 0%
06/06/07 (Franklin Pierce) - 1%
06/24/07 (Suffolk University) - 2%
06/27/07 - 06/30/07 (American Research Group) - 1%
07/09/07 - 07/11/07 (Research 2000) - 1%
07/09/07 - 07/17/07 (CNN / WMUR / UNH) - 2%
07/24/07 - 07/26/07 (McLaughlin & Associates) - 2%
07/26/07 - 07/30/07 (American Research Group) - 1%
08/26/07 - 08/29/07 (American Research Group) - 3%

----- Finally started to gain some traction??

09/06/07 - 09/10/07 (LA Times / Bloomberg) - 5%
09/11/07 - 09/14/07 (Franklin Pierce University / WBZ) - 3%
09/17/07 - 09/24/07 (CNN / WMUR) - 4%
09/26/07 - 09/28/07 (Zogby) - 3%
09/26/07 - 09/29/07 (American Research Group) - 3%
10/02/07 - 10/03/07 (Insider Advantage / Majority Opinion) - 6%
10/04/07 - 10/09/07 (Marist College Institute for Public Opinion) - 3% among likely voters
10/23/07 (Rasmussen) - 2%
10/26/07 - 10/29/07 (American Research Group) - 1%

----- Support started to gain around this point? Clearly starts to average around 7%.

11/02/07 - 11/06/07 (Marist College) - 7%
11/02/07 - 11/07/07 (Boston Globe) - 7%
11/02/07 - 11/11/07 (CBS News / New York Times) - 8%
11/07/07 - 11/25/07 (Pew Research Center) - 9%
11/29/07 (Rasmussen) - 8%
11/26/07 - 11/29/07 (American Research Center) - 2%
11/28/07 - 12/02/07 (Marist College) - 6%
11/29/07 - 12/03/07 (ABC News / Washington Post) - 8%
12/03/07 - 12/06/07 (Mason Dixon) - 5%
12/11/07 (Rasmussen) - 8%
12/10/07 - 12/12/07 (Concord Monitor / Research 2000) - 7%
12/18/07 (Rasmussen Reports) - 7%
12/16/07 - 12/19/07 (American Research Group) - 4%
12/17/07 - 12/19/07 (USA Today / Gallup) - 9%
12/20/07 - 12/26/07 (LA Times / Bloomberg) - 4% among likely voters and 6% among registered voters
12/27/07 - 12/29/07 (American Research Group) - 7%
12/27/07 - 12/30/07 (CNN / University of New Hampshire) - 7%
12/27/07 - 12/31/07 (Franklin Pierce University / WBZ) - 6%
01/01/08 - 01/02/08 (Suffolk / WHDH 7) - 8%
12/31/07 - 01/03/08 (Zogby International) - 7%
01/02/08 - 01/03/08 (Suffolk University / WHDH 7) - 8%
01/01/08 - 01/04/08 (Zogby International) - 7%
01/02/08 - 01/04/08 (McClatchy / MSNBC / Mason Dixon) - 8%
01/03/08 - 01/04/08 (Suffolk University / WHDH 7) - 8%
01/04/08 (Rasmussen Reports) - 14%
01/02/08 - 01/05/08 (Reuters / C–SPAN / Zogby) - 6%
01/04/08 - 01/05/08 (American Research Group) - 6%, (CNN / WMUR / UNH) - 9%, (Concord Monitor) - 7%, (Rasmussen Reports) - 11%, (Suffolk / WHDH 7) - 9%
01/04/07 - 01/06/07 (Strategic Vision) - 7%, (USA Today / Gallup) - 8%, (Franklin Pierce University / WBZ) - 7%, (Reuters / C–SPAN / Zogby) - 6%, (Fox News / Opinion Dynamics) - 5%
01/05/07 - 01/06/07 (CNN / WMUR / UNH) - 10%, (Rasmussen Reports) - 8%, (Marist College Institute for Public Opinion) - 8%, (Suffolk / WHDH 7) - 8%
01/05/07 - 01/07/07 (Reuters /CSPAN / Zogby) - 9%, (Rasmussen Reports) - 8%
01/06/07 - 01/07/07 (American Research Group) - 9%, (Suffolk / WHDH 7) - 5%

* Primary RESULTS: 5th Place w/ 7.7% of the vote.




I think it's important to look over these numbers because it shows how far Ron Paul has come in these two very important states.
Just compare the numbers above to the Iowa and New Hampshire polls that have been conducted so far for the 2012 election.

Immediately after his official entrance into the 2012 race, Congressman Paul started off tremendously better than he did four years ago. Just think, he never registered above 5% in any New Hampshire poll until October 2007 and he never registered above 5% in any Iowa poll until mid-November of 2007!




Iowa

05/27/11 - 05/30/11 (Public Policy Polling) - 8%
06/19/11 - 06/22/11 (Des Moines Register) - 7%
06/26/11 - 06/30/11 (The Iowa Republican) - 6%
07/05/11 - 07/07/11 (Mason Dixon) - 3%

----- Falling numbers? Rembember this is after Neo-Cons were making a big fuss out of Paul's foreign policy. Also probably due to Iowan "conservatives" vetting him since he had just entered the race. Although it appears that Paul's numbers were falling, they immediately began to rebound.

07/10/11 - 07/11/11 (Magellan Strategies) - 5%
08/04/11 (Rasmussen Reports) - 16%
08/19/11 - 08/21/11 (Public Policy Polling) - 12%
08/22/11 - 08/23/11 (Magellan Strategies) - 9%
08/31/11 (Rasmussen Reports) - 14%
10/03/11 - 10/05/11 (NBC News / Marist) - 12%
10/07/11 - 10/10/11 (Public Policy Polling) - 10%
10/16/11 (Insider Advantage) - 10%

----- Ever since early August, Congressman Paul has for the most part polled at or above 10% and his Iowa poll numbers since then average out to above 11%.



New Hampshire

05/18/11 - 05/22/11 (CNN / WMUR / University of New Hampshire) - 9%
06/01/11 - 06/08/11 (Boston Globe) - 6%
06/14/11 - 06/15/11 (Magellan Strategies) - 10%
06/21/11 - 07/01/11 (WMUR / University of New Hampshire) - 7%
06/25/11 - 06/27/11 (Suffolk) - 8%
06/30/11 - 07/05/11 (Public Policy Polling) - 9%

----- Does this mark a point of gaining support? Remember, this is shortly after Dr. Paul's first TV ad about the debt ceiling which was released on July 17th, 2011. It is also immediately after his virtual tie at the Ames straw poll in Iowa.

08/15/11 - 08/16/11 (Magellan Strategies) - 14%
09/18/11 - 09/20/11 (Suffolk) - 14%
09/21/11 (Rasmussen Reports) - 13%
09/26/11 - 10/06/11 (WMUR / University of New Hampshire) - 9%
10/02/11 - 10/06/11 (Harvard / Saint Anselm) - 13%
10/03/11 - 10/05/11 (NBC News / Marist) - 13%
10/12/11 - 10/13/11 (Magellan Strategies - 10%
10/16/11 (Insider Advantage) - 11%

----- Paul's support in New Hampshire has clearly solidified above 10% and since mid-August he is now averaging above 12% in the state.





Perhaps Dr. Paul's performance in the October 18th debate combined with his new "Plan to Restore America" as well as the campaign's recent ad-blitz and the money-bomb fundraiser which will take place on the 19th will help swell his support to above 15% and possible even in the low 20's soon? The way things are going, it seems likely to happen around early November!

[InTradePro]

+Rep

[anewvoice]

+rep it's time for us to gain traction once more and solidify above 15%

[harikaried]

Do you have any averages of polling percentages vs caucus/primary results? I wonder how much boost Ron Paul gets for having "dedicated voters."

Generally, the caucus/primary results match up with the polling numbers with maybe a 50% boost? So right now, we can expect Ron Paul to get 15% of the primary votes given the current 10% polls?

When Ron Paul gets to 20% polls, that'll be 30% votes hopefully with the rest splitting among Romney, Perry, Cain, etc.

[european]

This looks promising!
Now all we have to do is to double our efforts in these 2 states.

[Uriah]

The early states are key. If we do well in them we have a good chance to make it to the convention and win.

[muzzled dogg]

reps

[RonPaul101.com]

I think that the 2008 results show that the higher polling numbers reflected reality, and assuming that holds true and the higher polling groups are closer to reality in 2012, we are currently at about 13% real support in Iowa and NH.

[Uriah]

We have 75 days to get those numbers up.

[Lord Xar]

How about a "new" operation.. ala

OPERATION **********

1. We order up maybe 200k+ of those pamphlets that were recently posted to the board.
2. Distribute the in two of the early key states.
3. Maybe add in an addendum to the pamphlet explaining WHY the media blackout -- Ron is not a puppet, he will cut spending, and reign in the FED etc.. Something the established puppet candidates will not do.

I think if hand out and get some serious groundwork going, we can do this.

Those pamphlets are not that expensive. We can order a bunch, staple the addendum and off we go.

yeah/nay?

[european]

How about a "new" operation.. ala

OPERATION **********

1. We order up maybe 200k+ of those pamphlets that were recently posted to the board.
2. Distribute the in two of the early key states.
3. Maybe add in an addendum to the pamphlet explaining WHY the media blackout -- Ron is not a puppet, he will cut spending, and reign in the FED etc.. Something the established puppet candidates will not do.

I think if hand out and get some serious groundwork going, we can do this.

Those pamphlets are not that expensive. We can order a bunch, staple the addendum and off we go.

yeah/nay?

yeah: and what is the available grassroots structure that is already in place? maybe support can be organized to focus on these states? with chipins or alike

[sadam]

thanks for doing this + rep.

[McChronagle]

i would for sure chipin for some groundwork in these states

[parocks]

yeah: and what is the available grassroots structure that is already in place? maybe support can be organized to focus on these states? with chipins or alike

Don't we have an official campaign in those states? I'm pretty sure we do. There will likely be a door to door component to the campaign, and you could maybe just add your lit to the lit they want you to jam in the door when you hit a house with nobody there.

Grassroots should be working with the campaign on door to door.