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Thread: Silver investors, be careful: COMEX warehouse inventory GROWS & options expiry coming up

  1. #1

    Exclamation Silver investors, be careful: COMEX warehouse inventory GROWS & options expiry coming up

    I just took a look at the comex warehouse data:
    Registered oz GREW by 2.255.878 oz over the weekend. Physical supply went UP. This is not a good sign because some big names sold their holdings that were "stored at the comex" = eligible. So be careful if you have speculative postions in silver.
    TOTAL REGISTERED 30.481.689 + 2.255.878 => 32.737.567
    TOTAL ELIGIBLE 75.212.781 - 2.255.878
    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...ver_stocks.xls

    Also have in mind that options expire on August 25th. This usually means manipulative price action.



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  3. #2
    Thanks, I have a bunch of SLV shares , average price = $39 (I know, pretty bad huh).
    Think I should sell and buy back at a lower price?

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by matt0611 View Post
    Thanks, I have a bunch of SLV shares , average price = $39 (I know, pretty bad huh).
    Think I should sell and buy back at a lower price?
    Stopp-loss orders would be my choice. Maybe - 6% of the actual price, because the intraday losses usually donīt excede 5 %. -6% would require at least two down days in a row.

  5. #4
    http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

    I'd like to see silver and gold crater for a few days. 2 more days until options expire - in this market, 6 dollars down on silver could happen. Would be nice .

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Seraphim View Post
    http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

    I'd like to see silver and gold crater for a few days. 2 more days until options expire - in this market, 6 dollars down on silver could happen. Would be nice .
    Maybe we donīt see any movement at all IF stock markets tank again - like they do right now. Then silver might rise again together with gold.
    But the massive growth in COMEX silver inventories is quite bearish for silver. So if stock markets donīt crash again before the end of the week, I think silver will go a bit lower.

  7. #6
    Switzerlands silver manipulator No 1 (UBS) says silver is going to reach $ 50 in 3 months:
    UBS have raised their 3 month forecast for silver sharply from $30/oz to $50/oz. They suggest that investors are too nervous to short gold and may be preferring to buy silver instead.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-r...ilver-3-months
    Remember, their last call was silver going to $ 30 right after we had the big crash in may. Silver stood at $ 33 back then.
    I donīt trust them at all. Probably theyīre trying to suck their clients into silver to get rid of their own holdings.

  8. #7
    According to Harvey, the silver uptick is due to lease agreements - the banks are desperate to shore up physical silver reserves (in anticipation of settling contracts with rising open interest):

    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011...in-access.html

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Bern View Post
    According to Harvey, the silver uptick is due to lease agreements - the banks are desperate to shore up physical silver reserves (in anticipation of settling contracts with rising open interest):

    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011...in-access.html
    Thatīs a good idea, but he has no sources for that.
    I would never lease my silver (or gold) to a bullion bank.



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  11. #9
    I'm speculating, but some of the banks may simply be adding to their reserves by buying off of weaker industrial companies who can't afford their own reserves. Most of those companies get their credit from the big banks anyway...trouble paying the bills? Here's some silver.

    Quote Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post
    Thatīs a good idea, but he has no sources for that.
    I would never lease my silver (or gold) to a bullion bank.

  12. #10
    Here we go silver is dropping...

  13. #11
    I've got almost 1K in vet bills in the next week otherwise I'd use the surplus on my next paycheck to grab another 10 ounce bar on sale. =(

    Quote Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post
    Here we go silver is dropping...

  14. #12
    Itīs getting ugly.
    Same for gold.

  15. #13
    Earthquakes, Hurricanes and PMs plummet. Exciting day we've had.
    "..and on Earth anguish of nations, not knowing the way out...while men become faint out of fear and expectation of the things coming upon the inhabited Earth." -- Jesus of Nazareth

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post
    Itīs getting ugly.
    Same for gold.
    not too bad so far
    "Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it."
    James Madison

    "It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams



    Μολὼν λάβε
    Dum Spiro, Pugno
    Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by puppetmaster View Post
    not too bad so far
    -5 % intraday for silver is big.
    But we all know that fridays options expiry is coming...

  18. #16
    So, when to buy this dip?
    The proper concern of society is the preservation of individual freedom; the proper concern of the individual is the harmony of society.

    "Who would be free, themselves must strike the blow." - Byron

    "Who overcomes by force, hath overcome but half his foe." - Milton



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    So, when to buy this dip?
    I would wait until at least monday, because
    1. options expire on friday
    2. Bernanke is expected to announce some kind of QE3 on the weekend. If he doesnīt, metals might take a hit on monday because they are a bet on inflation.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post
    I would wait until at least monday, because
    1. options expire on friday
    2. Bernanke is expected to announce some kind of QE3 on the weekend. If he doesnīt, metals might take a hit on monday because they are a bet on inflation.
    Thanks!
    The proper concern of society is the preservation of individual freedom; the proper concern of the individual is the harmony of society.

    "Who would be free, themselves must strike the blow." - Byron

    "Who overcomes by force, hath overcome but half his foe." - Milton

  22. #19
    Truly, I think they know, that we know that their inventories are horribly low in relation to all the naked shorts and paper claims they have outstanding. The demand is becoming overwhelming on the investment side - that's with the public still somewhat unaware...It is in the best interest of The Comex and it's Custodian, JPM, to lop up all industrial slow downs and increase holdings because the purchase demand is there and growing (on the investment side) - and the desire to call their BLUFF!

    Secondly, they also know that they are no longer the only big dog in town. Chinese/Indian demand is now just as, if not more important than US demand.

    The East is accumulating NON STOP, every day...without fail. The East hold the bedrock of world finance in their hands. Gold, oil, debt holdings, resources.

    The West manipulates PM markets to the hilt...and until recently, totally ruled the world in this respect. No longer. It's a more even economic matchup now. Our tech $#@! still rocks though .


    I hope the rumors are true that a light bearing wing of the US government is protecting vast gold holdings with the intent of protecting global markets to "legalize" competition in currency and a self imposed commodity standard of money and credit...YEEEEHAH. That'd be sweet. Oh wait...The US Constitution .

    Ron Paul?

  23. #20
    I agree with SwissAustrian...

    Gold/silver...MIGHT...correct enough that waiting for the discount is advisable...Big picture...by Jan 1st 2012, the price of gold and silver should be substantially higher than now. The difference between buying in at 39 or 42 is not the greatest concern when end of year projections have MODEST outlooks saying 50+. Many saying 75, even 100.

    I think silver around 70$ and gold around 2150 are reasonable forecasts at this point...Those prices might be the CORRECTED prices into February...gold could go to 2350 and then correct down after the Holiday run up to the New Year.

    I think silver will likely trade between 35-43$ until near the end of September...from there sling shot upwards and outperform gold.

    Those who bought a lot of silver between 4$ and 20$ are about to be rewarded for their diligence.






    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    Thanks!
    Last edited by Seraphim; 08-23-2011 at 04:52 PM.

  24. #21
    No doubt that this is a long term bull market Who would have thought that silver is at 42 and gold at 1830 one year ago?

    On the Asian demand issue:
    Seems like Shanghai is increasing margins as well this time:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/precio...me-month-prepa
    I really donīt give a lot of credibility to the "Rothschild conspiracy", but itīs interesting that a family member owns a significant part of the Shanghai metals exchange.

  25. #22
    And the attack goes on. Of course during CRIMEX trading.

  26. #23
    People like you and I benefit from this. Just buy when on sale and stand pat as inevitable bull cycles grow larger and larger.

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Seraphim View Post
    People like you and I benefit from this. Just buy when on sale and stand pat as inevitable bull cycles grow larger and larger.
    + rep



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  29. #25
    I think weīll see 40 by the end of the week

  30. #26
    ... This Friday is options expiry month for both silver and gold whereby all in the money options will be given a futures contract. In gold they will receive a Sept gold and in silver they will receive a September silver. It is the latter that worries the bankers as the in-the-money options in silver at a 42 strike price is considerable. The bankers will whack the price of silver below $42 so that the options become worthless. This has been their modus operandi for years.
    ...
    ...The options expiry is this Friday and also the September contract goes off the board. However the September contract will trade until all longs are satisfied. Here the September contract rose by 5000 contracts to 55,713 which is huge when you consider that in 3 days the contract goes off the board. One would expect a huge contraction in numbers ...
    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011...lver-with.html

    The last few months, the # of contracts has usually contracted to 10,000 or less by options expiry. With just 3 days to go, I would have expected the number of contracts to have dropped to 30K or so. Interesting times....

  31. #27
    Hmm.. I'm watching carefully. I'm thinking of jumping into AGQ (2x levrgd. silver fund) when silver is around the 40.00-40.50. I can hold the money in there for some time, so I'm not worried if it corrects a bit further in the short term.
    "When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace."
    - Jimi Hendrix

    "If one rejects laissez faire on account of mans fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action."
    - Ludwig Von Mises, Planning for Freedom

  32. #28
    The cartell launched itīs nukes today. Shaking all the weak hands out

  33. #29
    Naw nukes are the days like in May when it drops 5-8$. This is just cover fire.

    I'm glad I'm not a weak hand .

    Quote Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post
    The cartell launched itīs nukes today. Shaking all the weak hands out

  34. #30
    I got out of SLV at 42.xx, I'll buy again once it hits 38.00, thanks for the heads up on this.

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