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Thread: Newest Intrade numbers for Iowa Straw poll

  1. #1

    Newest Intrade numbers for Iowa Straw poll

    http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=19

    Paul increased a lot today. Bachmann fell about 10% and T-Paw fell 5% or so.

    Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    53.1%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    33.9%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Tim Pawlenty to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    10.5%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Any other individual to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    3.0%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Mitt Romney to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    1.0%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Sarah Palin to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    0.9%
    CHANCE
    Last edited by Agorism; 08-08-2011 at 04:02 PM.



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  3. #2
    I bought and held a few shares of Ron at 14% Profit!
    Last edited by Esoteric; 08-08-2011 at 03:57 PM.

  4. #3
    Well you could double your money now if you sell lol.

  5. #4
    he was trading at 33.9 earlier today. He must be bouncing around a bit
    Please consider donating to the Mises Caucus today. We are TAKING OVER the LP.

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  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Agorism View Post
    Well you could double your money now if you sell lol.
    That would be quite hypocritical! Ames or BUST!

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Esoteric View Post
    I bought and held a few shares of Ron at 14% Profit!
    How are you able to trade? I opened an account and they can take money from any US bank accounts or something?

  8. #7
    I would like to know how this stuff works as well, I wanna get me some RP shares.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Eric21ND View Post
    How are you able to trade? I opened an account and they can take money from any US bank accounts or something?
    You'll have to either send a check or make a wire transfer. Thanks to the Dodd-Frank bill that passed last year, Intrade can't accept debit cards from US banks.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Unelected View Post
    You'll have to either send a check or make a wire transfer. Thanks to the Dodd-Frank bill that passed last year, Intrade can't accept debit cards from US banks.
    Yep. Had to wire funds. they credited my account the next day, which was surprising - just in time for me to snag some "will Ron Paul announce a presidential bid?" shares in the 70% range

  12. #10
    Paul now at 40%.

    Bach not really going down but Paul is getting tpaw's etc.


    Bids
    Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    Lowest Offer:
    $6.00
    22 shares
    Buy shares
    Highest Bid:
    $5.80
    10 shares
    Sell shares

    Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    Lowest Offer:
    $3.49
    1 share
    Buy shares
    Highest Bid:
    $2.60
    11 shares
    Sell shares

    Tim Pawlenty to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    Lowest Offer:
    $1.19
    1 share
    Buy shares
    Highest Bid:
    $1.05
    19 shares
    Sell shares
    Rand really needs to get to Iowa to bring in as many people as he can. That's why I saw no point in that Fancy farm stuff and other Kentucky campaign events all week.
    Last edited by Agorism; 08-10-2011 at 09:37 AM.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Agorism View Post
    Paul now at 40%.

    Bach not really going down but Paul is getting tpaw's etc.
    The $4.00 trade seems to have been an outlier. The current Ask/Bid average for Ron Paul is about $3.20.

  14. #12
    Karl Cameron just announced on Fox News that Ron Paul is a surprising front-runner in the Ames Straw Poll. So I expect the value of his shares to climb.

  15. #13
    A Ron Paul win would be priceless
    Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito

  16. #14
    My Birthday is August 13th...the best gift EVER would be a Ron Paul victory at Ames. I swear I would remember it forever haha
    Privatize the profits, socialize the losses. - Government at its best.

  17. #15
    We're at 40% Paul vs. 60% Bachmann

    We need something to push us over the top here. Right now I'm fearing a narrow loss by a couple hundred votes the way this is going. Good momentum this week obviously though.

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Eric21ND View Post
    How are you able to trade? I opened an account and they can take money from any US bank accounts or something?
    The Ron Paul ETF can only be bought with gold or silver...



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  20. #17
    today

    Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    42.0%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    45.0%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Tim Pawlenty to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    10.6%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Any other individual to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    2.8%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Mitt Romney to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    1.4%
    CHANCE

  21. #18
    i would say those numbers are about right.
    Please consider donating to the Mises Caucus today. We are TAKING OVER the LP.

    We have big plans including creating a program to bring libertarians like Maj Toure and Tom Woods to college campuses.

    We have several LP Mises Caucus Members who won elected office in 2020 including multiple City Council seats.

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    Donate today at www.TakeHumanAction.com

  22. #19
    .,,,,
    Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    37.6%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    50.0%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Tim Pawlenty to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    10.5%
    CHANCE

  23. #20

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by pauliticalfan View Post
    Why the recent uptick?
    Ron had 60 last night briefly, it is trades, some aren't very much volume, some more. It is going to be close, and I hope we win But the fact that they are calling Ron frontrunner (to raise expectations and lower the impact if he does well) yet having Bachmann on all five Sunday shows shows how they plan to run it even if Ron does win. He'd be the 'straw poll guy' and she'd be the second place who really matters, as Huckabee was 2d....

    Now I'm hoping Ron gets first and TPaw gets second. Wonder what they'll talk about on Sunday, then?
    "Integrity means having to say things that people don't want to hear & especially to say things that the regime doesn't want to hear.” -Ron Paul

    "Bathtub falls and police officers kill more Americans than terrorism, yet we've been asked to sacrifice our most sacred rights for fear of falling victim to it." -Edward Snowden

  25. #22
    ,,

    Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    30.0%
    CHANCE
    Predict

    Ron Paul to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    57.5%

    CHANCE
    Predict

    Tim Pawlenty to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll
    Event: Winner of 2011 Ames Straw Poll (Aug 13th)
    12.4%
    CHA

  26. #23
    Drudge bump did this recent uptick. Or people know something and are saying "holy f**k".

    Now I'm hoping for 5,000+ votes and considerable distance as the outright winner.
    .... in his heart, and in his head, in his character, and in his intellect, in what he has done, and in what he will become, the Thomas Jefferson of our day, Ron Paul is one of us.
    - Andrew Napolitano, Future of Freedom Foundation, June 3, 2007
    For captioned videos of Ron Paul, subscribe to http://www.youtube.com/user/KramerDSP.

    Also, check out http://www.deafronpaul.blogspot.com for hundreds of subtitled political videos featuring Ron Paul and other politicians.

  27. #24



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  29. #25
    For the last two days Bachmann does well in the morning, and Paul does better in the afternoon and the later in the evening it gets.

    Two days isn't really much of a trend though but more of a coincidence.

    Who knows Bachmann might bump back up tomorrow morning.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Agorism View Post
    For the last two days Bachmann does well in the morning, and Paul does better in the afternoon and the later in the evening it gets.

    Two days isn't really much of a trend though but more of a coincidence.

    Who knows Bachmann might bump back up tomorrow morning.
    Paul voters have jobs?
    I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue! -- Barry Goldwater

    The Law -- Frederic Bastiat

  31. #27
    @ 57.5% at 9:29 CST

    He is also @ 6.1% to be GOP nominee which is up from 4.5% a couple days ago.
    Please consider donating to the Mises Caucus today. We are TAKING OVER the LP.

    We have big plans including creating a program to bring libertarians like Maj Toure and Tom Woods to college campuses.

    We have several LP Mises Caucus Members who won elected office in 2020 including multiple City Council seats.

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  32. #28
    9:02 am cst hes hovering @ 55% to win today and he is up to 6.8% to get the nomination.
    Please consider donating to the Mises Caucus today. We are TAKING OVER the LP.

    We have big plans including creating a program to bring libertarians like Maj Toure and Tom Woods to college campuses.

    We have several LP Mises Caucus Members who won elected office in 2020 including multiple City Council seats.

    Your recurring donation is what helps us to set these ideas into motion.

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  33. #29
    Any predictions on what will happen to Ron's nomination chances on InTrade if he wins today?

  34. #30

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