Idaho GOP Adopts Presidential Caucus to be held on Super Tuesday
http://idgop.org/980/
Does this help Dr Paul? What's our ground-game like in Idaho?
Helps. Caucuses are our friends.
Yup. The more dedicated your followers, th better chance you have of winning a caucus. Caucuses aren't the same as showing up and ticking a box, then going home.Originally Posted by Badger Paul
Do we still need to register Republican 12 weeks in advance? Idaho resident here.
You can register Republican at the caucus.
http://idgop.org/presidential-caucus-faq/
3. Who votes in the Caucus?
All registered Republican voters in the county are eligible to vote in the County Caucuses. Voters may register to vote as Republicans as they enter the Caucus site.
I'd still go out and register republican right now...just to be safe
What can be done from outsiders to help those supporters in Idaho?
Based on 2008 Primary results (in a contest when McCain already was projected the nominee):
John McCain 87,460 69.65% 17
Ron Paul 29,785 23.72% 6
Uncommitted 8,325 6.63% 1
Based on these results and Dr Paul's increase in support this cycle, Idaho seems like a possible win. It sounds like folks need to be identifying strong RP supporters who will go to caucus voting for him. What works best, calling/robocalling (if state allowed) or door-to-door....?
Idaho's caucus system makes it tough for us to win.
This is how the voting works:
This means that after every round, the supporters of the candidate that got dropped get to vote again for their second choice. Ron Paul can only win a county by getting at least 60% of the votes in a voting round or come down to the final two and get more votes.The voting will be conducted by secret ballot and takes place in successive rounds. Each round, low vote-getters are eliminated. Voting ends in either of two circumstances: a) one candidate receives a supermajority of at least 60% of the vote; or b) only two final candidates remain on the ballot and the final vote is taken.
I'm not so sure its a death sentence. Some places with committed supporters 60% is doable, and other places we need to just rank high enough to be the Romney alternative on the final vote, which in rural America should make beat Romney easy. The race in the close ones will be for top two in final vote where Romney is also top 2. For example if we bring about 30% of the vote to one location and the second to last round has it: Romney 35%, Cain/Perry/Gingrich 30%, Paul 35% we need to hope we have 35% and not 30% at that point because Cain/Perry/Gingrich votes could split our way a Anti-Romney votes.
If we only have 15-20% support in a county, you're right that we won't survive the round robin format. Turnout of our supporters will be even more important than in a primary format.
If we assume donors correlates closer to caucus votes (more committed) than regular primary states, then Idaho is definitely gonna come down between Romney and Paul with Romney having the edge in specific locales. Nobody else comes close.
http://thedailyviz.com/post/11539284...their-campaign
Idaho also heavily Mormon so keep that in mind. Shattering the myth of Romney's "inevitability" in New Hampshire and Nevada will crucial to winning the western caucus states.
I'm wanting to say Paul got more votes than Romney did in '08. Only McCain had more.
True, but the primary was late enough that McCain was the nominee, and that's likely why; no Romney. Also, this year is a caucus, last cycle was a primary.
Idaho is 23% Mormon which makes this tough.
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