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Thread: Warning Fools! Silver Will Fall by 66%

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Travlyr View Post
    ^^^ No doubt. Drop baby drop!
    qft I still have some napkins to get rid of...
    Quote Originally Posted by DamianTV View Post
    When Freedom is Outlawed, only Outlaws will have Freedom.



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  3. #32
    Aero = zero?
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    This is getting silly.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    It started silly.
    T.S. Eliot's The Hollow Men

    "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors." - Plato

    We Are Running Out of Time - Mini Me

    Quote Originally Posted by Philhelm
    I part ways with "libertarianism" when it transitions from ideology grounded in logic into self-defeating autism for the sake of ideological purity.



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  5. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by MRoCkEd View Post
    Posted as a warning to BUY since Motley Fool is screaming sell

  6. #34

  7. #35
    I hope so, I shorted the crap out of it last week.

  8. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by hugolp View Post
    Why do you have to be such a radical?

    Why are the only options you comtemplate "silver will go up forever" or "silver will collapse today or tomorrow"? We are in a moment of the cycle that is extremely bullish for commodities and this part of the cycle can go on for years, but it does not mean it will never end. What about the option: "the bull market for commodities will go on at least for two or three years more and the last part of the cycles tend to be the more parabollic ones"?
    I'm a radical? Cool.

    I actually don't see either view. All I see in the online world is that silver will go up forever because it is manipulated, or silver will crash because it is in a bubble. These are other people's views, not mine. I don't really care. In fact, I'm waiting for the next crash in equities so I can buy up like there's no tomorrow.

    What about the option: "the bull market for commodities will go on at least for two or three years more and the last part of the cycles tend to be the more parabollic ones"?
    That seems to be a minority view in the metals market, mostly because it is well-reasoned...at least when compared to other views.

  9. #37
    The fool is the person who believes the US dollar is getting strong. 100 Trillion USD liability, printing gone wild. 1.5 Trillion deficit and Obama and the Republicans are will to continue on (just wait till Obama care kicks in). China stating they want to dump 2 trillion of their 3 trillion US treasuries. Increased deficits without buyers and more QE and more printing. Now who besides the fool would believe the US dollars is getting stronger? In the short run markets go up and down a bit. Silver may flucuate some as well. But better on silver's increase is based on the US dollar weakening. Please explain this futher to us Chartman? Charts without facts = wrong charts.

  10. #38
    I expect all commodities, including gold and silver, to fall a bit when QE2 ends in June. We could see silver at $40 and gold at $1,350. But I also expect that development to coincide with deteriorating economic statistics and a continued lack of willingness to do anything significant about our trillion-dollar deficits, prompting QE3 before this time next year and sending commodities into yet another new stratosphere.

  11. #39
    I don't think the funny money markets can last that long without QE3 - other than that I'd say a pretty sound analysis.


    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Tea View Post
    I expect all commodities, including gold and silver, to fall a bit when QE2 ends in June. We could see silver at $40 and gold at $1,350. But I also expect that development to coincide with deteriorating economic statistics and a continued lack of willingness to do anything significant about our trillion-dollar deficits, prompting QE3 before this time next year and sending commodities into yet another new stratosphere.

  12. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Tea View Post
    I expect all commodities, including gold and silver, to fall a bit when QE2 ends in June. We could see silver at $40 and gold at $1,350. But I also expect that development to coincide with deteriorating economic statistics and a continued lack of willingness to do anything significant about our trillion-dollar deficits, prompting QE3 before this time next year and sending commodities into yet another new stratosphere.
    I agree with you except 40 and 1350 could be a little low. June could be an explosive month for gold and silver. If silver gets through its all time highs there isn't a lot of resistance in June. I could see silver taking out 60 and gold 1650 in June. There could be a lot of money to be made but it's a real gamble because like you said once we get into July all bets are off.
    Ron Paul: "Do you think gold is money?"
    Ben Bernanke: "No"
    ~July 7th, 2011



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  14. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Seraphim View Post
    I don't think the funny money markets can last that long without QE3 - other than that I'd say a pretty sound analysis.
    Don't forget, the Fed will still be rolling payments from QE1 and QE2 into fresh purchases of Treasury bonds via QE-Lite. This is especially relevant when it comes to the $1.25 trillion (face value, of course) in mortgage assets purchased during QE1. Rollovers of previous Treasury purchases will only affect the flow, not the stock, of Bernanke's Treasury assets, but rollover of mortgage debt will be used to buy more of Uncle Sam's "AAA" bonds, providing a boost to both stock and flow.

    Even with that going on, however, I personally would guess that we'll get QE3 before 2011 is over. But a couple of factors could extend the "wait" into 2012. Bernanke's feet were held a bit closer to the fire for QE2, so he may want to achieve the psychological effect of storing his ammo until we're in a new calendar year. Ideally, he'd probably also like to see oil drop below $100/barrel (another important psychological barrier) before firing up the printing presses again. He could also try to outlast the rest of the world, and hold off until either China gets more aggressive in its fight against inflation, or Europe's debt crisis explodes once again and most of the EU falls back into recession. Either would choke off some demand for commodities, and the latter would provide a significant direct boost the dollar, allowing Ben to say, "See? There's obviously nothing to worry about. Time for another trillion."
    Last edited by Jay Tea; 05-01-2011 at 04:35 PM.

  15. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael P View Post
    I agree with you except 40 and 1350 could be a little low.
    Not according to the past hour.

  16. #43
    Silver just dropped 12%

  17. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by bobbyw24 View Post
    Silver just dropped 12%
    Only 54% more to go... wow...
    "Everyone who believes in freedom must work diligently for sound money, fully redeemable. Nothing else is compatible with the humanitarian goals of peace and prosperity." -- Ron Paul

    Brother Jonathan

  18. #45
    BTFD! There won't be any physical anywhere if this keeps up. What you're seeing here is "paper" silver crashing. Two diff markets. Paper silver will eventually goto ZERO.

  19. #46
    Please listen to this man.

    Quote Originally Posted by ctiger2 View Post
    BTFD! There won't be any physical anywhere if this keeps up. What you're seeing here is "paper" silver crashing. Two diff markets. Paper silver will eventually goto ZERO.

  20. #47

    Silver Plunges 12%, What's Going On?

    Inquiring minds are watching silver futures get smacked this Sunday evening. Here are a couple of charts to consider.



    The monthly chart looks ominous. It seldom pays to chase spikes like that, regardless of fundamentals or perceived fundamentals.

    Where to From Here?

    I was not even going to comment on silver tonight because of my sale last Wednesday as noted in Taking Silver Profits - Swapping Silver for Gold.

    What changed my mind was a post this evening by Zero Hedge: More On The Silver Dive: "Massive Sell Orders" Coupled With Bolivian Nationalization Halt Combine For Perfect Weak Hand Shakeout Storm

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-going-on.html

  21. #48

    Why People are Buying Silver Now!

    (At $40-50/oz., it's better than all the alternatives!)
    Silver Stock Report
    by Jason Hommel, Feb 5th, 2011


    In April, we had a record month in buying and selling silver and gold. Business volume increased 57% over our prior month's record.

    Many customers are walking in, and saying, "I need silver." Not "I'd like to buy". Not "I want". But "I need."

    Most of our customers mention that they are aware of the recent government budget battle and near shutdown of the government. People are aware that the government's budget is short by $1.6 trillion, which is $1600 billion dollars-- that they are printing, to meet the "need," and yet, the political parties were arguing over a mere $30 billion difference. (And yet, investment demand for silver stands at a paltry 250 million oz., at $50/oz, which is a mere $12.5 billion.) Our customers are aware that there is zero political will (neither among the politicians, nor among the population) to even remotely fight for something close to a balanced budget for nearly the next two years, until after the next election in the fall of 2012. They say it would be one thing, if the budget fight was whether to cut $500 billion to $700 billion from the budget, but it was nothing like that. They are aware that the current crop of politicians are so weak, and so ineffectual, even with the new tea party tax cutters in office, that inflation is guaranteed for the next two years or many more. People are aware that the entitlement mentality in America is now so strong, and since so many people are "on the dole" from the government, that they will likely continue to vote for more government spending for decades to come.

    I'm 41. For the first time in my life, an older customer actually apologized to me. He apologized as a representative of the older generation, to me, as a member of the younger generation, because America has been destroyed on their watch, and they know that they made our lives worse by stealing our freedoms, and by increasing our tax burden. But he said he did not know what to do about it. And I said that buying silver is far more than enough. After all, if voting counts, and if writing letters counts a thousand times more than voting, then buying silver counts a thousand times more than writing letters!

    More

    http://silverstockreport.com/2011/wh...ilver-now.html



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  23. #49

    Price Of Silver About To SKYROCKET Because Of China


  24. #50
    We have seen a fairly big retracement in silver. I am still bullish until I see a close that is $ 3-4 below the high. So far, every cliff drop has been repeatedly beaten back.

  25. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Tea View Post
    Don't forget, the Fed will still be rolling payments from QE1 and QE2 into fresh purchases of Treasury bonds via QE-Lite. This is especially relevant when it comes to the $1.25 trillion (face value, of course) in mortgage assets purchased during QE1. Rollovers of previous Treasury purchases will only affect the flow, not the stock, of Bernanke's Treasury assets, but rollover of mortgage debt will be used to buy more of Uncle Sam's "AAA" bonds, providing a boost to both stock and flow.

    Even with that going on, however, I personally would guess that we'll get QE3 before 2011 is over. But a couple of factors could extend the "wait" into 2012. Bernanke's feet were held a bit closer to the fire for QE2, so he may want to achieve the psychological effect of storing his ammo until we're in a new calendar year. Ideally, he'd probably also like to see oil drop below $100/barrel (another important psychological barrier) before firing up the printing presses again. He could also try to outlast the rest of the world, and hold off until either China gets more aggressive in its fight against inflation, or Europe's debt crisis explodes once again and most of the EU falls back into recession. Either would choke off some demand for commodities, and the latter would provide a significant direct boost the dollar, allowing Ben to say, "See? There's obviously nothing to worry about. Time for another trillion."
    I am also in the camp that thinks that QE3 will be probably delayed until 2012.

  26. #52

    Silver below $44 again (Monday 4:25)



    Pick some up

  27. #53

  28. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty Rebellion View Post
    As an atheist, I agree with the above sentiment
    uh

    Quote Originally Posted by MRoCkEd View Post

  29. #55

    Silver is Below $42/oz. How low will it go?


  30. #56



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  32. #57
    Some are thinking $27-$33 range.

  33. #58

    $41 is breached; bring on $40 and $39 . . .


  34. #59
    I have 33$ pegged as the LOWEST it will go.

    I am inclined to think the brutal drop will be met with rebellious support.

    In USD, I think it will begin to hit A LOT of support at worst around 37$.

    The long term fundemental bulls will stop the bleeding once they start seeing spot prices beginning with the number 3.

    Quote Originally Posted by ctiger2 View Post
    Some are thinking $27-$33 range.

  35. #60
    I'm kind of convinced they're trying to push it to mid 30s for the summer... I don't mind too much. Most of my silver is from the mid 20s and ~10 oz from 35-40.

    It's a buying opportunity. And hopefully it really is and they're not just trying to shake out some people.

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