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  1. #1

    Warning Fools! Silver Will Fall by 66%

    The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.

    Gold's real return: aero
    Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).

    There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):

    The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.

    Gold's real return: aero
    Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).

    There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):

    The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.

    Gold's real return: aero
    Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).

    There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):

    http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...all-by-66.aspx



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  3. #2

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by MRoCkEd View Post
    Posted as a warning to BUY since Motley Fool is screaming sell

  5. #4
    People said that at $25, $30, and $40 also. Time will tell.

  6. #5

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by bobbyw24 View Post
    ... Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? ...
    In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue. It's not that metals are "accreting value". It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing. The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days. Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Bern View Post
    In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue. It's not that metals are "accreting value". It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing. The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days. Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.
    Lol yup.

    Same thing could be said for anything:

    "Why would oil, a commodity with no yield -- accrete value?"

    Some people are so ignorant of economics and prices, its so sad.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Bern View Post
    In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue. It's not that metals are "accreting value". It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing. The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days. Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.
    Quote Originally Posted by matt0611 View Post
    Lol yup.

    Same thing could be said for anything:

    "Why would oil, a commodity with no yield -- accrete value?"

    Some people are so ignorant of economics and prices, its so sad.
    Both posts make excellent points, but they do not take into account the circumstance under which such commodities actually do accrete value.

    What you both were addressing was the monetary inflation aspect. Silver, for example and all else equal, retains it market value while the currency declines. That is clearly no accretion of value.

    However, market values for silver can in fact rise even with perfect money as the only currency due to increased demand.

    If, for example, a superconducting medium were invented that would operate up to, say, the boiling point of water at standard pressure, you can bet you hide that silver would accrete staggering value. The same might be said for any other comparatively rare commodity. But even sand, were it to be the magic ingredient in the next wave of quantum advances that everyone in the world will want, its market value would rise.

    So always bear in mind the two disparate foundational bases for rises in apparent value: money inflation and increased demand. Same outward appearance; totally and mutually alien foundations and, often, results.
    freedomisobvious.blogspot.com

    There is only one correct way: freedom. All other solutions are non-solutions.

    It appears that artificial intelligence is at least slightly superior to natural stupidity.

    Our words make us the ghosts that we are.

    Convincing the world he didn't exist was the Devil's second greatest trick; the first was convincing us that God didn't exist.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    Silver, for example and all else equal, retains it market value while the currency declines. That is clearly no accretion of value.

    However, market values for silver can in fact rise even with perfect money as the only currency due to increased demand.
    Also, changes in supply.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
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    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Bern View Post
    In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue. It's not that metals are "accreting value". It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing. The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days. Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.
    I would argue that the author is not ignorant, but seeking to deceive and prepare ETF investors to exit the market at the first sign of weakness.

    Ironically, a decent downward correction in the FRN price of Ag would be great for the many folks who are waiting for an opportunity to buy, so that when a significant price correction does occur, we will experience a phenomenal rush into physical PM purchases.

    I hate to patronize this tool for more than he is worth, but keep in mind that it is not the price of silver, gold, fuel and food which are rising.

    Rather, it is faith in the FRN which is waning on a global scale, and therefore we can expect rampant fiat devaluation to further drive demand for physical metals and other tangible commodities.

    The FRN is fr*ckin doomed!
    Peacefully Engaged in Domestic Economic Terrorism Since 2004.

    Audit Fort Knox so we will know how much Tungsten backs the FRN!

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Gideon View Post
    I would argue that the author is not ignorant, but seeking to deceive and prepare ETF investors to exit the market at the first sign of weakness.

    Ironically, a decent downward correction in the FRN price of Ag would be great for the many folks who are waiting for an opportunity to buy, so that when a significant price correction does occur, we will experience a phenomenal rush into physical PM purchases.

    I hate to patronize this tool for more than he is worth, but keep in mind that it is not the price of silver, gold, fuel and food which are rising.

    Rather, it is faith in the FRN which is waning on a global scale, and therefore we can expect rampant fiat devaluation to further drive demand for physical metals and other tangible commodities.

    The FRN is fr*ckin doomed!
    I agree, he seems to be some kind of a FED shill.

  14. #12
    The author plays that Caps game on that site and his accuracy at picking stocks is 50%. I think of monkeys and dart boards... just sayin

    http://my.fool.com/profile/TMFBullnBear/activity.aspx
    Ron Paul: "Do you think gold is money?"
    Ben Bernanke: "No"
    ~July 7th, 2011

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Gideon View Post
    The FRN is fr*ckin doomed!
    Raising the question: what will replace it? The answer to that is the one over which we should be on pins and needles. When a new currency comes, "they" are not going to be kind. We are going to be collectively sheared until we bleed. Maybe even literally.

    Get foods and medicines stocked. Don't go crazy, but have a year's worth anyway. Worst that happens: you eventually go through the stock as you would otherwise consume and the world doesn't come to an end.
    Last edited by osan; 05-05-2011 at 05:44 AM.
    freedomisobvious.blogspot.com

    There is only one correct way: freedom. All other solutions are non-solutions.

    It appears that artificial intelligence is at least slightly superior to natural stupidity.

    Our words make us the ghosts that we are.

    Convincing the world he didn't exist was the Devil's second greatest trick; the first was convincing us that God didn't exist.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Gideon View Post
    I would argue that the author is not ignorant, but seeking to deceive and prepare ETF investors to exit the market at the first sign of weakness.

    Ironically, a decent downward correction in the FRN price of Ag would be great for the many folks who are waiting for an opportunity to buy, so that when a significant price correction does occur, we will experience a phenomenal rush into physical PM purchases.

    I hate to patronize this tool for more than he is worth, but keep in mind that it is not the price of silver, gold, fuel and food which are rising.

    Rather, it is faith in the FRN which is waning on a global scale, and therefore we can expect rampant fiat devaluation to further drive demand for physical metals and other tangible commodities.

    The FRN is fr*ckin doomed!
    Exactly It's like betting on horses. For the sake of argument, there are two horses in the race. One is of so-so breeding and overall rather slower than average with an inconsistent history, the other is extremely sick with ever increasing numbers of parasites and malignant tumors and will in all likelihood collapse and die before the race is over. Despite the faults with the first horse, he is still the obvious choice given who he is competing against.
    The main difference between the right and the left is that a right wing politician claims to protect your economic freedom, but does not, whereas a left wing politician claims to protect your social/personal freedom, but does not.

    weak minds follow, conventional minds lead, great minds question

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Bern View Post
    In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue. It's not that metals are "accreting value". It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing. The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days. Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.
    Exactly. The author is accepting the view that this time isn't different. Most silver investors are buying silver because they think this time is different. Of course, "this time isn't different" crowd has a better track record seeing as 99.9999% of the time this time isn't different. However, maybe the silver bugs are right this time in that it is different, and they'll reap the rewards if they're right. So too will the silver shorts. This is like having a priest and atheist argue; each would argue a reality that they've created within their own belief. At the end of the day, neither will understand the other, since an assumption (acceptance of their own truth) was made at the most basic level of their thought process.

    Also, I've started to come to the understanding that silver price could go up forever, simply because there are so many people who see it as the ultimate asset class. Ever seen Kitco's forum? LOL. It would be interesting to do a study on libertarians and metal holdings. If libertarians can send a politician many millions of dollars, one has to wonder how much gold and silver these same libertarians can buy. I'm almost convinced that a small minority of investors who are buying gold and silver like there is no tomorrow can control the buy-side of the equation, and push the price higher and higher and higher. There aren't many sellers in this group of investors, and should they continue to accumulate, the price of gold and silver could go up forever...err, at least until they start selling.

    On a side note, anyone remember that JP Morgan story? The one where JP Morgan was allowing investors to open trading accounts denominated in gold? Has there been any recent news about it?

    Not sure how popular the program actually was, but I have a feeling that JPM is making a mint writing calls on the holdings. Sure, you're looking at like $3 per month per ounce, or ~2% per year, but even at that rate cash flow is cash flow. They have to be loving the idea that gold is negative carry, seeing as they pay 0% interest on the gold and generate yield with it.

    Gold and silver, when owned in more "financialized" instruments, is actually positive carry, but the yields are pretty low. However, when money is cheap, those who can borrow at low rates can buy gold and silver--or any commodity, for that matter--and generate a positive yield greater than their carry costs.
    Last edited by Jordan; 04-30-2011 at 12:49 PM.

  18. #16
    What point is he trying to make? In the very long run, gold maintains its purchasing power--that is what he established and everyone knows that. But I myself will sell gold when the market is much higher from here. My holding period on gold is only several years, as is most people's. If you bought gold in the early 1970's and still have it today, you are doing pretty good. But if you sold the gold in the 1980's, invested in the stock market instead and eventually dot coms in the 1990's then sold, then repurchased gold in 2000, then you'd do much better than just outright ownership of gold from the 1970's until now.

    The same is true if you bought stocks in the 1980's but held them until today..You made a big bull run, but now you've been stuck in a bearish slump for a decade when you could've amplified all those gains in 1998-2000 by plowing them into undervalued assets like commodities.

    In 5-8 years, the same will be true only in reverse..probably by then, bonds will be much more lucrative than owning expensive precious metals. It'd be prudent to switch out asset classes, but again, if you plan on owning gold from now until you die, you'll weather some bad storms, but you'll make it through a couple or so bull markets.



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    Exactly. The author is accepting the view that this time isn't different. Most silver investors are buying silver because they think this time is different. Of course, "this time isn't different" crowd has a better track record seeing as 99.9999% of the time this time isn't different. However, maybe the silver bugs are right this time in that it is different, and they'll reap the rewards if they're right. So too will the silver shorts. This is like having a priest and atheist argue; each would argue a reality that they've created within their own belief. At the end of the day, neither will understand the other, since an assumption (acceptance of their own truth) was made at the most basic level of their thought process.

    Also, I've started to come to the understanding that silver price could go up forever, simply because there are so many people who see it as the ultimate asset class. Ever seen Kitco's forum? LOL. It would be interesting to do a study on libertarians and metal holdings. If libertarians can send a politician many millions of dollars, one has to wonder how much gold and silver these same libertarians can buy. I'm almost convinced that a small minority of investors who are buying gold and silver like there is no tomorrow can control the buy-side of the equation, and push the price higher and higher and higher. There aren't many sellers in this group of investors, and should they continue to accumulate, the price of gold and silver could go up forever...err, at least until they start selling.

    On a side note, anyone remember that JP Morgan story? The one where JP Morgan was allowing investors to open trading accounts denominated in gold? Has there been any recent news about it?

    Not sure how popular the program actually was, but I have a feeling that JPM is making a mint writing calls on the holdings. Sure, you're looking at like $3 per month per ounce, or ~2% per year, but even at that rate cash flow is cash flow. They have to be loving the idea that gold is negative carry, seeing as they pay 0% interest on the gold and generate yield with it.

    Gold and silver, when owned in more "financialized" instruments, is actually positive carry, but the yields are pretty low. However, when money is cheap, those who can borrow at low rates can buy gold and silver--or any commodity, for that matter--and generate a positive yield greater than their carry costs.
    Why do you have to be such a radical?

    Why are the only options you comtemplate "silver will go up forever" or "silver will collapse today or tomorrow"? We are in a moment of the cycle that is extremely bullish for commodities and this part of the cycle can go on for years, but it does not mean it will never end. What about the option: "the bull market for commodities will go on at least for two or three years more and the last part of the cycles tend to be the more parabollic ones"?

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by hugolp View Post
    Why do you have to be such a radical?

    Why are the only options you comtemplate "silver will go up forever" or "silver will collapse today or tomorrow"? We are in a moment of the cycle that is extremely bullish for commodities and this part of the cycle can go on for years, but it does not mean it will never end. What about the option: "the bull market for commodities will go on at least for two or three years more and the last part of the cycles tend to be the more parabollic ones"?
    I'm a radical? Cool.

    I actually don't see either view. All I see in the online world is that silver will go up forever because it is manipulated, or silver will crash because it is in a bubble. These are other people's views, not mine. I don't really care. In fact, I'm waiting for the next crash in equities so I can buy up like there's no tomorrow.

    What about the option: "the bull market for commodities will go on at least for two or three years more and the last part of the cycles tend to be the more parabollic ones"?
    That seems to be a minority view in the metals market, mostly because it is well-reasoned...at least when compared to other views.

  22. #19
    The fool is the person who believes the US dollar is getting strong. 100 Trillion USD liability, printing gone wild. 1.5 Trillion deficit and Obama and the Republicans are will to continue on (just wait till Obama care kicks in). China stating they want to dump 2 trillion of their 3 trillion US treasuries. Increased deficits without buyers and more QE and more printing. Now who besides the fool would believe the US dollars is getting stronger? In the short run markets go up and down a bit. Silver may flucuate some as well. But better on silver's increase is based on the US dollar weakening. Please explain this futher to us Chartman? Charts without facts = wrong charts.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Bern View Post
    In that question, the author announces his complete ignorance of the issue. It's not that metals are "accreting value". It's that the measuring stick you are using to measure value is changing. The author has a fundamental misunderstanding of what money is and a complete lack of historical perspective on the "great" Keynesian experiment that's in it's dying days. Everyone loves the returns on a Ponzi scheme until it collapses.
    Well said! Only fools here are the ones still holding on to dollars.
    Last edited by Jandrsn21; 05-04-2011 at 10:23 AM.

  24. #21
    I've been thinking this is very little to do with the value of silver or gold but more a thing to do with the value of the dollar.



    Click to embiggen

  25. #22
    At some point, this statement, "Silver Falls by 66%", will be true;
    How long will it take? 1,2,5, or 10 more years?
    • The Bear market in Silver lasted over 20 years.
    • What if the 66% drop happens (for example) after you sell your silver for $401/OZ?
    No one here wanted to be the Billionaire.

  26. #23
    Aero = zero?
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    This is getting silly.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    It started silly.
    T.S. Eliot's The Hollow Men

    "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors." - Plato

    We Are Running Out of Time - Mini Me

    Quote Originally Posted by Philhelm
    I part ways with "libertarianism" when it transitions from ideology grounded in logic into self-defeating autism for the sake of ideological purity.

  27. #24
    The problem with silver...


    FRAUD


    and why REAL PHYSICAL silver will go through the roof is because the market is being FLOODED WITH FIAT SILVER. I think holding REAL silver at 30, 40, 50, even 150 is a good bet... because before long the market will figure out that "traded" silver certificates are totally BOGUS and are not backed by anything. Thats when your silver coins are going to be worth a small fortune. Depending on how long it takes for the market to wise up to the fraud of silver manipulation... I bet (REAL) silver (IN HAND) goes tenfold to $500++ if not a disneyland $5k and those BOGUS certificates that we call "silver" become worthless; just like the green back when this all collapses.

    The $#@! will hit the fan.


    THE
    LARGEST
    FINANCIAL
    FRAUD
    IN HUMAN
    HISTORY



    Google:
    silver manipulation Andrew Maguire JPM

    Google:
    silver NAKED SHORT ORDER


    "FOR EVERY 100 OUNCES IN TRADE there exist only ONE OUNCE in the VAULT"


    Repeat:

    COMEX SILVER IS NAKED 100:1

    Andrew Maguire finally exposes systemic fraud by CFTC & JPMorgan
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLxoeLqQMlw
    90k views 100% likes

    xtranormal cartoon explaination:


    Part 1- JP Morgan Silver Manipulation Explained

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gl47z2g2EvI
    300k views nearly 100% positive "likes"

    "the higher the silver goes the more worthless the paper fiat $ is that the Ben Bernanke prints for free"
    "when the BB needs to keep silver down, JPM is given paper to short the silver market"

    Part 2-JP Morgan Silver Manipulation Explained
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPg4qTNTP-E

    Part 3 - Silver Manipulation Explained
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AId_UiPtPpQ

    Part 4 - Silver and Gold Manipulation Explained
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h66R4U-Eybs

    Part 5 - The Silver Saga Story Continues
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzyXn8t0plM

    Part 6- The Paper Silver Manipulation Game at all time Highs
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9LcKcXpCDE

    Part 7, The EPIC Weekend has Arrived
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJlzhnZMChY

    Part 8 - The Gold Rush Currency Wars
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIUctQ8Wy4Q

    THE GIG IS UP!

    "stores of silver have multiple claims upon them"
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_as_an_investment


    GOT SILVER? or a spastic colon?
    Last edited by presence; 02-02-2012 at 12:15 PM.



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  29. #25
    WOWOWOWOWOW! Warning, don't listen to anything ANYONE has to say from that site EVER. When I was about 16 I was really into pharmaceutical companies and I posted a comment on the site about one particular company. I said this stock will "sky rocket to the moon one their drug is FDA approved!". Haha, they posted my comment in an article claiming that it was actually some sort of legitimate investment advice, and the stock shot up in the next week from about .75 to over 2.50.

    The drug was rejected by the FDA and the stock has since dropped to .34. CTIC check it out.
    Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito

  30. #26
    If silver drops by 66%, I'll look at it as a great buying opportunity! Bring it on!!

  31. #27

    Opportunities abound for Life and Liberty -- Keep Looking up folks!

    Quote Originally Posted by KCIndy View Post
    If silver drops by 66%, I'll look at it as a great buying opportunity! Bring it on!!
    Exactly -- buying opportunity!

    It is difficult to make money in the metals market if you are a short term trader or an emotional trader because the peaks are often sharp and the troughs can be extended. But if you are consistent and buy on dips for the purpose of holding the asset you will be fine.

    I must remind everyone here though that our real treasure is not in earthly treasures that can be stolen, but in the priceless idea of liberty. Where the spirit of the Lord is -- there is Liberty. We have what seems to be a dwindling opportunity to bless the next generation with what our forefathers gave us.

    Let us be ever vigilant in our efforts to restore the respect for Life and Liberty in our land.

    Let us ask the Lord God who made us to have mercy on us and guide us in the battle at hand to restore the republic. May we be a people that He would be pleased to bless once again.

    Blessings,
    Sandie

  32. #28
    ^^^ No doubt. Drop baby drop!
    "Everyone who believes in freedom must work diligently for sound money, fully redeemable. Nothing else is compatible with the humanitarian goals of peace and prosperity." -- Ron Paul

    Brother Jonathan

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Travlyr View Post
    ^^^ No doubt. Drop baby drop!
    qft I still have some napkins to get rid of...
    Quote Originally Posted by DamianTV View Post
    When Freedom is Outlawed, only Outlaws will have Freedom.

  34. #30
    No chance. It didn't even drop that much during the 08 crash & we won't see the dollar strengthen like that again. Flight to safety is now Gold.
    Ron Paul: "Do you think gold is money?"
    Ben Bernanke: "No"
    ~July 7th, 2011

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