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Thread: Warning Fools! Silver Will Fall by 66%

  1. #361
    Member Zippyjuan's Avatar
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    So it would seem. Might as well have it in silver stocks.
    I am Zippy and I approve of this message. But you don't have to.



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  3. #362
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    Thanks for the info Zip , I always thought I would get around to looking at that , but had not.

  4. #363

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    Not sure the benefit of putting silver into a IRA. I don't plan on reporting any gains to the IRS in the first place if we are talking about a ROTH and I would rather the IRS not know about the existence of my PM stash if we are talking about a traditional.

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    Quote Originally Posted by XTreat View Post
    Not sure the benefit of putting silver into a IRA. I don't plan on reporting any gains to the IRS in the first place if we are talking about a ROTH and I would rather the IRS not know about the existence of my PM stash if we are talking about a traditional.
    Makes sense to me.

  6. #365
    Site Staff - Moderator Brian4Liberty's Avatar
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    Silver closed over $29 today. Last week was probably a (relative) bottom. We shall see...
    Twitter: B4Liberty@USAB4L
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  7. #366

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    Quote Originally Posted by XTreat View Post
    Not sure the benefit of putting silver into a IRA. I don't plan on reporting any gains to the IRS in the first place if we are talking about a ROTH and I would rather the IRS not know about the existence of my PM stash if we are talking about a traditional.
    This. ^^^

    I'm not really sure why anyone would want to put gold or silver in an IRA...

  8. #367
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    Quote Originally Posted by matt0611 View Post
    This. ^^^

    I'm not really sure why anyone would want to put gold or silver in an IRA...
    I would not , defeats the purpose of having it.

  9. #368
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Silver closed over $29 today. Last week was probably a (relative) bottom. We shall see...
    I figured last summer @ $26 was the bottom , forever ....

  10. #369
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    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    I figured last summer @ $26 was the bottom , forever ....
    Seems to be a lot of talk about hitting that $26 again this summer. We'll see.
    Twitter: B4Liberty@USAB4L
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
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    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul


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  11. #370
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Seems to be a lot of talk about hitting that $26 again this summer. We'll see.
    Then I would buy some more,most of mine , probably 1/2 below $10 , other half, below $27 , so , I am happy.Bought a little bit of gold a few days ago.Some copper today.

  12. #371
    Site Staff - Moderator Brian4Liberty's Avatar
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    $29.40 now. There are some buyers today.
    Twitter: B4Liberty@USAB4L
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  13. #372

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    First day of the new bull market in metals.
    Tell others I told so.
    If you tell a lie long enough, loud enough and often enough, the people will believe it.-------Adolf Hitler

  14. #373

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    Quote Originally Posted by fatjohn View Post
    First day of the new bull market in metals.
    Tell others I told so.
    So far you're wrong. I hope the other holds true however.

  15. #374

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    I remember once when I was young noting that the price of silver was very low during the depression and wondered why everyone didn't buy it. Someone mentioned because no one had any money.

    But going back to the Great Depression in the 1930's, silver prices were 25 cents per ounce, and the U.S. mint paid that to the miners, yet turned that silver into coinage worth $1.40 per ounce, as there is 0.72 of an ounce of silver in $1 face value of 10 dimes or 4 quarters minted 1964 or earlier.

    http://silverstockreport.com/2009/rapture.html

    The miners didn't. ?????



    Anyway we saw the housing bubble burst. Most recently I thinking I saw inflation get to the point that the money we were working for no longer covered the cost of our business operations. I saw layoffs and hours cut. The morning commute to a sever cut in traffic.

    I think that cutback caused a lot of loan defaults. I think that in turn caused our currency to regain some of its value. Silver prices fell. I'm assuming other commodities and stocks did as well.

    It then became worth it for some to increase hours. Others to hire. Traffic has picked up in the morning. I thinking another round of inflation will yank the slates right out from under us.

    http://www.silverseek.com/quotes/5silver.php

    I think the big pullback in this one was the housing market.

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI


    Anyway it seems a dilemma for me. On the one hand I should be charting all commodities and stocks and following them as they twist and turn with each other like the way DNA twist and turns. Buying the lows selling the highs.

    On the other hand it looks like the little recent gains we've made are going to get stopped in their tracks.

    I think only restoring sound money can stop the inflation. Its gone past the point of regaining some control through government spending. Even if we did have their hearts and minds to do so their are still those outside of the country with access to the fake money presses.

    Are we the new miners?
    Last edited by Carson; 03-10-2013 at 08:21 PM.

  16. #375

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    Quote Originally Posted by GunnyFreedom View Post
    They would if I could have gotten to it. It went over a 10 foot embankment at 2AM. I went back at first light and couldn't find it. Not that I could have done much, I've never cleaned a deer in my life. I'd be all...

    I've had help in the past with such things. The advice that really set me free and allowed me to get in up to my elbows came from a friend as he was in there doing my work for me. He said what he does is cut out all the parts he doesn't want to eat.


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    Last edited by Carson; 03-10-2013 at 08:29 PM.

  17. #376

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    I think we're due for a rise in silver and gold. Maybe 1,800 and 35.
    My 2016 prediction: Hillary Clinton will NOT run for president.

    Rand Paul 2016

  18. #377

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    OP was almost correct two years after this post was created

    Silver has fallen about 60% since the $50 high....not quite 66%


    Quote Originally Posted by bobbyw24 View Post
    The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.

    Gold's real return: aero
    Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).

    There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):

    The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.

    Gold's real return: aero
    Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).

    There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):

    The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.

    Gold's real return: aero
    Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).

    There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):

    http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...all-by-66.aspx

  19. #378

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    So 2 or 3 more dollars to go....
    My 2016 prediction: Hillary Clinton will NOT run for president.

    Rand Paul 2016

  20. #379
    Site Staff - Moderator Brian4Liberty's Avatar
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    And the long-term Silver Prediction Award goes to Alex Dumortier and bobbyw24!


    Congratulations.

    It took over three years, but the original prediction has come to pass. And overshoot to the downside it did. Yippee.

    Silver could fall by two-thirds!
    Silver prices are now well ahead of their historical average (the red line). The chart doesn't do justice to the extent of the gap that has opened up with respect to a fair price since it ends on the average price of silver during the first quarter of this year (roughly $32), whereas daily prices are now close to $50. In fact, the price of silver would need to fall by nearly two-thirds to get back to its long-term average of $18/ ounce -- not to mention that markets typically overshoot.

    http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...all-by-66.aspx
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  21. #380
    Site Staff - Moderator Brian4Liberty's Avatar
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    What a long thread, just for fun, here's some select quotes. Most of these are from 2011.

    It's always darkest before the dawn. Are we there yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by KCIndy View Post
    If silver drops by 66%, I'll look at it as a great buying opportunity! Bring it on!!
    It's on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Indy Vidual View Post
    At some point, this statement, "Silver Falls by 66%", will be true;
    How long will it take? 1,2,5, or 10 more years?
    • The Bear market in Silver lasted over 20 years.
    • What if the 66% drop happens (for example) after you sell your silver for $401/OZ?
    It took over three years.

    Quote Originally Posted by scrosnoe View Post
    Exactly -- buying opportunity!

    It is difficult to make money in the metals market if you are a short term trader or an emotional trader because the peaks are often sharp and the troughs can be extended. But if you are consistent and buy on dips for the purpose of holding the asset you will be fine.
    Buy low, sell high. Easy concept. Timing is extremely difficult.

    Quote Originally Posted by rp4prez View Post
    I like the trend... means I can buy more for my monthly purchase!
    True,

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    So where's the bottom going to be?

    IMHO, worst case scenario (total crash) takes us down to a minimum of $20/oz.
    And what a long, slow crash it has been, with a bounce in between.

    Quote Originally Posted by nurse_emily View Post
    If silver drops back down to $15 I'll buy up as much as I can just like last summer. I am currently not buying above $30 an oz.
    Almost time to buy?

    Quote Originally Posted by Seraphim View Post
    This.

    29-32$ silver is back up the truck time.
    Do you have another truck to fill?

    Quote Originally Posted by Seraphim View Post
    This.

    It's been a while since I could really afford to add to my silver position. Now that I'm just weeks away from being able to make a significant (for me) purchase...well I hope it falls to 25$ !!
    ...
    Bring on the knife like drop to 20$.
    ...
    This time around, 16-22$ silver will be very much like 8-9$ silver in 2008. STRONG strategic buy point.

    I`m not convinced it will even go that low. It might though.
    At we there yet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    $20 was my worst case scenario too. Will we see the worst case though? Sentiment is pretty negative all around, which usually means buy to contrarians.

    Relative (to other fiat currencies) US dollar strength is all that worries me for the metal price in US dollars. That usually levels out at some point. Are we there yet? Or does the dollar have a significant rise left vs the Euro?
    And the dollar continues higher...how far will it go?

    Quote Originally Posted by kuckfeynes View Post
    I hope it does go down to $20 (and gold to $1450 or whatever) so I have time to make more FRNs and buy more for less.

    The dollar is temporarily perceived to be strong, the economy is temporarily perceived to be growing...

    Deflation before inflation...
    Your wish has been granted.
    Twitter: B4Liberty@USAB4L
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    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  22. #381

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    I don't really care if it "falls" right now, the value of silver is in its conductivity,malleability , brazing ability, it is a useful metal all around and for that a good bartering resource to hold onto
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  23. #382

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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainAmerica View Post
    I don't really care if it "falls" right now, the value of silver is in its conductivity,malleability , brazing ability, it is a useful metal all around and for that a good bartering resource to hold onto
    I care, I wanna buy a bunch at $4.00 oz
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  24. #383

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    He took a lot of heat and he was right. For the moment it looks like there is no floor for silver. Some will still beat the drum for Weimar/Zimbabwe style hyper inflation. As for me, I've learned my lesson. I still have my metals and will keep them but do not look for PMs to be mine, yours or anyone's savior if and when TSHTF.

  25. #384

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    Quote Originally Posted by XTreat View Post
    Not sure the benefit of putting silver into a IRA. I don't plan on reporting any gains to the IRS in the first place if we are talking about a ROTH and I would rather the IRS not know about the existence of my PM stash if we are talking about a traditional.
    When you hold a gold IRA, the metals are held in a self-directed IRA. The IRS does not know details of what you're holding in the self-directed IRA. They would only know the total value...

  26. #385

  27. #386

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    As a matter of fact, Brian - I am looking into making my single largest purchase ever (silver).
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

  28. #387

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    Unfortunately in my area (Toronto and surrounding area) many silver products are sold out and the others have huge premiums. It seems a lot of people are buying these prices.
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

  29. #388
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seraphim View Post
    Unfortunately in my area (Toronto and surrounding area) many silver products are sold out and the others have huge premiums. It seems a lot of people are buying these prices.
    I have been able to get some 90 % locally in dimes and halves for spot , but , yeah , Eagles and dollars have a premium.

  30. #389

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    this guy is saying basically the same thing Harvey Organ said on Greg's show not too long ago.....that the physical metal shortage will come to a head by year's end.
    "Sorry, guys, the rebellion is off. We couldn't get a rebellion permit."
    "What is this, a home owner's association? Why the need to try and control other people's behavior?"



  31. #390

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    Quote Originally Posted by WillieKamm View Post
    He took a lot of heat and he was right. For the moment it looks like there is no floor for silver. Some will still beat the drum for Weimar/Zimbabwe style hyper inflation. As for me, I've learned my lesson. I still have my metals and will keep them but do not look for PMs to be mine, yours or anyone's savior if and when TSHTF.
    Somebody unban him already!
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