Update: Just spoke to bus companies

[rp08orbust]

If the PAC is successful at raising a good chunk of money, I wonder if it could hire Doug Wead as a consultant and spokesman. I can imagine him making some kick-ass appeals for moneybomb donations in YouTube videos, so if the PAC made enough to hire him, it would make even more money. More importantly, I believe that in Doug's latest analysis of Mike Huckabee's strength as a candidate, he was hinting that his magic formula for winning Iowa was up for sale if the dithering Ron Paul campaign did not take him up on the offer soon. We need to make sure that Doug works for a Ron Paul victory, not a Mike Huckabee victory.

[nayjevin]

re: security of voting process:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...voting-process

[RachelFaith]

If he is for sale, let him go. You don't want or need that kind and nothing on his site is new or unknown by others.

[tangent4ronpaul]

Just curious, Rachel, do you think it's realistic for a grassroots PAC to take on such a massive task, or do you think it would be a better use of our time to email-bomb the Ron Paul people until they take the lead on winning the Ames straw poll? It seems like it needs to be one or the other, because the PAC and the official campaign can't coordinate.

Which PAC? There is the Liberty PAC that can't transfer funds to the presidential campaign, the new PAC set up by the exploratory committee and on the official site for the money bomb and the possible grassroots PAC.

I'm a bit confused as to when the can't coordinate rules kick in. Does it apply to the exploratory committee or just after he officially announces. I was under the impression it was the latter.

As to a grassroots PAC for buses, Paul did state that his decision to run would be based on how well he did in the debate on the 5th and how well the money bomb that same day does. A grassroots money bomb would compete with the official one - possibly winning the battle but loosing the war. If it happened later, most people would be donated out and fewer buses would be available than there are now by the time we had $$$.

As to only one trip per bus, I'd disagree. It would depend on the distance from Ames. Within a 50 mile radius it would be an hour for each leg, so in, return, in again is about 3 hours. For a farther out city, say 100 miles it would be a 2 hour trip. What if the farther out ones acted like closer ones, but transferred people at a 50 mile point and then went out to a second outlying city for the second leg.

ie: first trip:
50 mile bus gets close people and returns
100 mile bus gets people and drops them off at 50 mile pickup point.

second trip:
50 mile bus picks up second load w/ 100 mile people
100 mile bus goes out to 75 mile mark (25 miles) picks up people and comes all the way in.

Reverse for return.

Cost is an issue here. For one, we are competing with the official money bomb (maybe not such a big issue, as we have 3 months) and secondly, if busses cost $2,000 a day for 54 seats, that's $40 a head for a single trip, but only $20 a head if we get 2 trips. That's a pretty good deterrent against attendance if the attendees are paying for it and have to pay for their admission to the straw poll too.

Lets look at this from the perspective of state self organization, perhaps with external help. We have meetups in Des Moines (2) and one in Davenport - I believe. There are 33 cities with populations over 10,000 and 22 with populations over 20,000:

Ames (Population: 50,731)
Ankeny (Population: 27,117)
Bettendorf (Population: 31,275)
Boone (Population: 12,803)
Burlington (Population: 26,839)
Carroll (Population: 10,106)
Cedar Falls (Population: 36,145)
Cedar Rapids (Population: 120,758)
Clinton (Population: 27,772)
Clive (Population: 12,855)
Coralville (Population: 15,123)
Council Bluffs (Population: 58,268)
Davenport (Population: 98,359)
Des Moines (Population: 198,682)
Dubuque (Population: 57,686)
Fort Dodge (Population: 25,136)
Fort Madison (Population: 10,715)
Indianola (Population: 12,998)
Iowa City (Population: 62,220)
Keokuk (Population: 11,427)
Marion (Population: 26,294)
Marshalltown (Population: 26,009)
Mason City (Population: 29,172)
Muscatine (Population: 22,697)
Newton (Population: 15,579)
Oskaloosa (Population: 10,938)
Ottumwa (Population: 24,998)
Sioux City (Population: 85,013)
Spencer (Population: 11,317)
Storm Lake (Population: 10,076)
Urbandale (Population: 29,072)
Waterloo (Population: 68,747)
West Des Moines (Population: 46,403)

33 cities w/ over 10,000 population. 6Mo: 33/3(*72) =$792, 3mo: 33/3(*45)=$495
22 cities with over 20,000 population. 6Mo: 22/3(*72)=576, 3mo: 22/3(*45)=$360

Source: http://www.elook.org/city/states/iowa.html

Keeping in mind that we've raised this kind of money to send a SINGLE person to campaign manager school via a chipin, it should be trivial to pay to get a Meetup in either the most populated 22 or 33 cities in the state and hand them off to existing local leaders with the understanding that they will join another group of just organizers so everyone is on the same page to organize carpooling and other transportation. Prices above assume we take full advantage of Meetups buy 1, get 3 and that locals pick up the cost after the straw poll. If we did the 3 month version, this shouldn't happen till after May 13th, so they exist through the straw poll. Then call, e-mail or US Snail every person on the supporter list and get as many as possible to start attending regular meetings and swelling their ranks. This would be a bargain at $360.

We can probably get some for free from existing meetup organizers that have spare groups. We could do a cookie cutter approach of this strategy for the first 4 states for under $1,500 total at the 3 month level.

Other considerations: Rail

There are two East/West routes going through Iowa. The one in the middle of the state goes through Ames and is operated by Union Pacific. The East/West route that goes along the bottom of the state is operated by Burlington Northern and Amtrack. There is a North/South route connecting the two and going through Ames operated by Union Pacific. I'm not sure which of these lines, beside Amtrack carry passenger cars or what it would cost to rent a whole car. As to Amtrack, I'm pretty sure calling and saying you want to rent whole cars or buy 150 all day passes would get a much better price than their regular fare. There are other. lesser routes all over the state, some of which are used by other railroads. Just a possible alternative worth looking into...

-t

[RachelFaith]

Just curious, Rachel, do you think it's realistic for a grassroots PAC to take on such a massive task, or do you think it would be a better use of our time to email-bomb the Ron Paul people until they take the lead on winning the Ames straw poll? It seems like it needs to be one or the other, because the PAC and the official campaign can't coordinate.

Well, frankly I am not very connected to the national folks and we don't really know what they intend to do. My uncle was on staff 4 years ago, but hasn't heard anything yet either, nor have other folks across the nation. Maybe they are waiting for the big money bomb. Who knows. Obviously emails and calls can't hurt. Let your voices be heard. I mean, John and Jesse seem to be the ones in charge, and everyone knows them, so make it happen.

But, having your own PAC is not ever a bad thing. So I don't see it as a choice. Do both and do them aggressively.

[RachelFaith]

Tangent.

The problem with the buses is staging. You have a limited time not just for the mileage but for loading and unloading and all that goes with it. Campaigns have done this for decades and thousands of buses. So, don't try and over think it. This is one shot busing and only from the distant places. All those in 50 or less miles just drive themselves. We may have a few buses for that to create the party unity but that is all.

Also, population is NOT indicative of likely voters. Western Iowa is must stronger than Eastern Iowa for GOP purposes. Some large towns like Cedar Rapids are huge Democratic strongholds. Smaller towns are all GOP, so we would need a bus "route" not just stops. This too will add to the travel time.

We need 200 Buses and that is 200-400K plus all the other logistics to go with it.

Someone raises and spends 1 million or forget about it. That simple.

[tangent4ronpaul]

Rachel,

judging on past experience I don't think the campaign will rent buses, but rather spend money on print, radio and TV ads as well as slim jims and yard signs. They might pay for some straw poll admissions.

If there is going to be transportation help, it's up to us. Locally coordinated car pooling seems a better way to go, for the most part. Van pools ideally.

Yes, I realize political demographics are different than population demographics. Forgot to add a note to the above that it would be useful to know the 20-30 cities with the most Paul supporters. Other things to keep in mind are that no town will be 100% liberal of conservative and that small towns are within driving distance to large towns. A scattering of groups all over the state isn't going to leave anyone out.

Also consider that we had a lot of liberal leaning support last time. Take for example Auston Tx, a very liberal town, where we still have 2-3 HUGE RP meetups. The NYC meetups were also huge. Remember, the younger demographic is basically fed up with Obama and we've got the only anti-war candidate running.

Anyway, do you have a breakdown of where in IA we have the most supporters?

Superior organization can offset $$$. Total cost for the blimp, IIRC, was 1 Million. I don't think we can do that for a single straw poll in just over 3 months.

thanks,

-t

[Nate-ForLiberty]

What about setting up a phone banking system like Peter Schiff had? I.e., I go to a website, login, it gives me a phone number of a registered Republican Iowan. I call them and persuade them to attend Ames and vote for Ron Paul. This is something we could get started right away. After Ames it could be converted to whatever state or national whenever we needed.

*Nvm, I just realized this is probably something the official campaign would need to do.

[tangent4ronpaul]

What about setting up a phone banking system like Peter Schiff had? I.e., I go to a website, login, it gives me a phone number of a registered Republican Iowan. I call them and persuade them to attend Ames and vote for Ron Paul. This is something we could get started right away. After Ames it could be converted to whatever state or national whenever we needed.

*Nvm, I just realized this is probably something the official campaign would need to do.

No, it's something we did. Annoying this didn't show up on search so I'll edit out contact info and post again

Call centers:

Dan Bermal – Irvine CA

J.C. Cunningham – MA (also congressional candidate) #

Mark McSpadden – Long Beach CA

Steve Vincent, Josh Low, Jenny Worman – LA #

ukn – San Fran

ukn – Los Vegas

Joe Bozzi – Columbus OH -

Steven Smith – Clearwater or Tampa FL area (programmer)

Steve Smith or ??? - NC

Norm Tragenza – NH, official campaign, traditional call center – disbanded

Kamron – TX #

[Jay Tea]

Rachel,

judging on past experience I don't think the campaign will rent buses, but rather spend money on print, radio and TV ads as well as slim jims and yard signs. They might pay for some straw poll admissions.

If there is going to be transportation help, it's up to us. Locally coordinated car pooling seems a better way to go, for the most part. Van pools ideally.

Yes, I realize political demographics are different than population demographics. Forgot to add a note to the above that it would be useful to know the 20-30 cities with the most Paul supporters. Other things to keep in mind are that no town will be 100% liberal of conservative and that small towns are within driving distance to large towns. A scattering of groups all over the state isn't going to leave anyone out.

Also consider that we had a lot of liberal leaning support last time. Take for example Auston Tx, a very liberal town, where we still have 2-3 HUGE RP meetups. The NYC meetups were also huge. Remember, the younger demographic is basically fed up with Obama and we've got the only anti-war candidate running.

Anyway, do you have a breakdown of where in IA we have the most supporters?

Superior organization can offset $$$. Total cost for the blimp, IIRC, was 1 Million. I don't think we can do that for a single straw poll in just over 3 months.

thanks,

-t

If you really feel that way, then we should organize efforts to constantly ask the campaign for bus funding until they realize how important it is.

[UtahApocalypse]

Can C4L pay for buses? They're sitting on a crap load of money, if I'm not mistaken...

I would think that if the CFL, or another PAC decided to have an event that just happens to be in Ames on the same day they could legally pay for transportation costs for people wanting to attend that event.

[tangent4ronpaul]

If you really feel that way, then we should organize efforts to constantly ask the campaign for bus funding until they realize how important it is.

It won't work.

[RachelFaith]

Don't play any games Utah. LOL

Let's just get our own PAC and do it. No game. Nothing silly. Just flat out execution.

[Dave Aiello]

I would think that if the CFL, or another PAC decided to have an event that just happens to be in Ames on the same day they could legally pay for transportation costs for people wanting to attend that event.

As a 501(c)4, C4L is now allowed (after citizens united v FEC), to advocate a candidate's election, HOWEVER, they can only spend a fraction of their expenses on this. I think this is why they are now raising money to lobby legislation. The more money they spend on non-electioneering activity, the more they CAN spend on electioneering activity. This is very inefficient, as a LOT of money is being wasted this way.

Our grassroots PAC will take that role. Also, after speaking with some people, we've FINALLY reached a consensus with the name of the organization. I happen to also own the domain name - Ron Paul Nation.

[tangent4ronpaul]

Other considerations: Rail

There are two East/West routes going through Iowa. The one in the middle of the state goes through Ames and is operated by Union Pacific. The East/West route that goes along the bottom of the state is operated by Burlington Northern and Amtrack. There is a North/South route connecting the two and going through Ames operated by Union Pacific. I'm not sure which of these lines, beside Amtrack carry passenger cars or what it would cost to rent a whole car. As to Amtrack, I'm pretty sure calling and saying you want to rent whole cars or buy 150 all day passes would get a much better price than their regular fare. There are other. lesser routes all over the state, some of which are used by other railroads. Just a possible alternative worth looking into...

-t

Just talked to Union Pacific. They don't offer Passenger rail, at least in Iowa. That leaves the lower East/West route and Amtrak. It doesn't look like they run often, but early morn and early eve at least in a easterly direction. The closest stop to Ames is Osceola which looks to be about 60-66 miles away. Maybe a bus from there. The Amtrak lines appear to be #5/6 and #7/8, Next closest stop (I think) is Ottumwa. Jefferson Lines (bus) has a route from Osceola to Ames and back: www.jeffersonlines.com also: http://www.jeffersonlines.com/schedule.asp?state=IA

One of the 2 Osceola bus stops is the Amtrak Station and the Ames stop is the Iowa State Memorial Student Union.

Unfortunatly, Amtrak does not appear to service Ames, unless there is a derailment blocking their line, in which case they detour. hmmmm J/K! lol! The girl said her map didn't show all Amtrak lines, so we may still be in luck. OTOH, the old passenger terminal in Ames is now a shopping plaza, so that's not looking great unless you want to freight hop.

I haven't tried Burlington Northern yet, but I think the situation is the same.

Anyway, we have a possible way to get people living in the bottom part of the state close and a possible bus connect.

-t

[RachelFaith]

Trains are out in Iowa. No one rides them and they pass through nowhereville. Don't overthink this. A simple plan well executed will have serious expense. We can either do it right or forget about it.

[RachelFaith]

Our grassroots PAC will take that role. Also, after speaking with some people, we've FINALLY reached a consensus with the name of the organization. I happen to also own the domain name - Ron Paul Nation.

That is a much better name than "Laugh". LAF

[Nate-ForLiberty]

We could always start a chip-in for people to use Greyhound. I know you can get herpes from just sitting on their buses, it's a small price to pay!! Then we could setup a shuttle between the bus station and the polling location.

[RachelFaith]

Greyhound is more expensive than just renting a fleet. Post a plan, raise the fund, execute the plan, win. Tada!

[tangent4ronpaul]

As a 501(c)4, C4L is now allowed (after citizens united v FEC), to advocate a candidate's election, HOWEVER, they can only spend a fraction of their expenses on this. I think this is why they are now raising money to lobby legislation. The more money they spend on non-electioneering activity, the more they CAN spend on electioneering activity. This is very inefficient, as a LOT of money is being wasted this way.

Our grassroots PAC will take that role. Also, after speaking with some people, we've FINALLY reached a consensus with the name of the organization. I happen to also own the domain name - Ron Paul Nation.

What fraction?

[The Dark Knight]

I like this Rachel Faith Girl... she is a winner

[The Dark Knight]

When is Ron Paul nation website up? I am ready to donate

[nayjevin]

Ok if I'm living in Iowa and I'm a Ron Paul supporter, I'm going to the straw poll. If I don't have a ride I will find one. If I have extra space I will fill it.

What is the advantage of central planning this? Why not decentralize?

Just make sure everyone knows we need to go to the straw poll en masse. Organize locally for meetup points to aide in getting/giving rides. Wear Ron Paul t-shirts to validate your true intent.

Why take the Romney campaign route that we spent so much time criticizing?

[RachelFaith]

We did it that way last time. We had 10,000 supporters and 1000 showed up. This is about perception, locally and nationally. Can Ron Paul's people dance the tune? A win changes everything. Anything less repeats everything from last time. And some dumbass neocon rino will lose to Obama.

[RachelFaith]

What fraction?

The good news, it is a high number. The bad news. The IRS law just says a fraction. So, it is take your chances with the courts if they don't like you.

[torchbearer]

who is rachelfaith?

[nayjevin]

We did it that way last time. We had 10,000 supporters and 1000 showed up.

To me that says we had 1000 supporters serious about showing up. Still need a source.

This is about perception, locally and nationally. Can Ron Paul's people dance the tune?

The straw poll is bull$#@!, needing to win it is bull$#@!, but it's important because people and media are superficial. We understand this. But how does that apply to expensive buses from central command vs. decentralized individual choices?

A win changes everything.

That is non-specific.

Anything less repeats everything from last time.

Also non-specific. First, nothing will repeat from last time no matter what, as they are separate events. Similarities sure. Second, there are possibilities where Ron doesn't win Iowa but wins the nomination. I'm not downplaying the importance of doing the best we can there. But all or nothing is simply a bad approach. It sets us up for failure, giving up if he doesn't win. And promoting the all or nothing is a tired old tactic of our enemies.

And some dumbass neocon rino will lose to Obama.

I suggest more reason and logic and less appeals to emotion.

[IDefendThePlatform]

I think as we track down the supporters from 2007/8 we should try to get them all to start Meetups again locally. If we get those going, then we can communicate between the Meetup leaders. This would let us better plan for how many need busses or carpools or whatever. But we definitely need to start tracking down the 18,000 previous supporters and cataloging where they live and if they need a ride or can even come. A phone bank for calling these people would be good.

[rp08orbust]

Second, there are possibilities where Ron doesn't win Iowa but wins the nomination.

That is non-specific. Why don't you walk us through such a scenario?

Can you name a single contest between now and the last primary or caucus by which the Republican nominating race is mathematically wrapped up that will be easier for Ron Paul to win than the Ames straw poll and (if victorious in the latter) the Iowa caucus? By "easier" contests, I mean contests where motivation from grassroots supporters can be leveraged to augment Ron Paul's representation far above his poll numbers among the general population.

If you can't, then explain why he will start winning tougher contests later on without having won these easier ones?

[rp08orbust]

I think as we track down the supporters from 2007/8 we should try to get them all to start Meetups again locally. If we get those going, then we can communicate between the Meetup leaders. This would let us better plan for how many need busses or carpools or whatever. But we definitely need to start tracking down the 18,000 previous supporters and cataloging where they live and if they need a ride or can even come. A phone bank for calling these people would be good.

"Tracking down" = Drew Ivers giving the list to one of us.