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Thread: Alternate unemployment figure

  1. #1

    Alternate unemployment figure

    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...loyment-charts


    The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.
    The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.


    Most of it is over my head but I find the number interesting. When people quote unemployment numbers do they account for people that have ran out of benefits and still cannot find a job?
    “First of all, if you’ve got health insurance, you like your doctors, you like your plan, you can keep your doctor, you can keep your plan. Nobody is talking about taking that away from you.” Lying Sack of Crap



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  3. #2
    In the number you see on the news and in articles (the "U3" figure in the chart above), a person first must either have a job or be looking for one to be in the workforce- receiving unemployment benefits is not relevant. But as a condition of receiving unemployment benefits, you are supposed to still be actively looking for a job- some may lie about that to keep the benefits- saying they are looking for work- and when the benifits run out now admit they aren't looking for one. If they say they are not looking for a job, they aren't counted as part of the workforce and aren't counted as unemployed. If your benefits ran out but you are still actively looking for a job, then you are still in the workforce and counted as unemployed.

    The important factor here is not do you or did you receive any unemployment benefits but are you currently actively looking for work.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-14-2013 at 06:05 PM.

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    In the number you see on the news and in articles (the "U3" figure in the chart above), a person first must either have a job or be looking for one to be in the workforce- receiving unemployment benefits is not relevant. But as a condition of receiving unemployment benefits, you are supposed to still be actively looking for a job- some may lie about that to keep the benefits- saying they are looking for work- and when the benifits run out now admit they aren't looking for one. If they say they are not looking for a job, they aren't counted as part of the workforce and aren't counted as unemployed. If your benefits ran out but you are still actively looking for a job, then you are still in the workforce and counted as unemployed.

    The important factor here is not do you or did you receive any unemployment benefits but are you currently actively looking for work.
    That's what he said. The more significant number includes people that have given up looking for work.

  5. #4
    Unemployment should include those working in the public sector and those working in the private sector on government contracts.

  6. #5
    If you aren't looking for a job do you really want one? And if you don't really want one- should you be counted as unemployed? It is a difficult question to decide who is really "unemployed" and who isn't. So they decided that if you aren't looking for work you really aren't unemployed- just choosing not to work.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    In the number you see on the news and in articles (the "U3" figure in the chart above), a person first must either have a job or be looking for one to be in the workforce- receiving unemployment benefits is not relevant. But as a condition of receiving unemployment benefits, you are supposed to still be actively looking for a job- some may lie about that to keep the benefits- saying they are looking for work- and when the benifits run out now admit they aren't looking for one. If they say they are not looking for a job, they aren't counted as part of the workforce and aren't counted as unemployed. If your benefits ran out but you are still actively looking for a job, then you are still in the workforce and counted as unemployed.

    The important factor here is not do you or did you receive any unemployment benefits but are you currently actively looking for work.
    Oh tell another whopper Zippy, if they are unemployed and not receiving benefits how does anyone know if you are looking for a job or not? There are no forms filled out, no one calls you up an asks you, hey I'm from the government are still actively looking for a job? Are you unemployed? Its all blowing smoke out of your ass.

  8. #7
    A valid question. As a matter of fact, they do call people. The unemployment is determined by telephone surveys where they ask people lots of questions to try to determine if they are looking for work or not. They obviously don't call every person in the country (that of course would be impossible) but a representative sample which they change over time (they follow a household for four months or so and then replace it with a new one). http://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm Looking for more exact numbers but I believe it is 70,000 people a week they call.

    Where do the statistics come from?
    Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and because it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940 when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. It has been expanded and modified several times since then.

    What are the basic concepts of employment and unemployment?

    The basic concepts involved in identifying the employed and unemployed are quite simple:
    People with jobs are employed.
    People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are unemployed.
    People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force.
    Link to their survey questions: http://www.census.gov/cps/methodology/questions.html

    Sample size is 60,000 households.
    Methodology:
    http://www.census.gov/cps/methodology/

    Methodology Overview

    The CPS is administered by the Census Bureau using a probability selected sample of about 60,000 occupied households. The fieldwork is conducted during the calendar week that includes the 19th of the month. The questions refer to activities during the prior week; that is, the week that includes the 12th of the month. Households from all 50 states and the District of Columbia are in the survey for 4 consecutive months, out for 8, and then return for another 4 months before leaving the sample permanently. This design ensures a high degree of continuity from one month to the next (as well as over the year). The 4-8-4 sampling scheme has the added benefit of allowing the constant replenishment of the sample without excessive burden to respondents.

    The CPS questionnaire is a completely computerized document that is administered by Census Bureau field representatives across the country through both personal and telephone interviews. Additional telephone interviewing is conducted from the Census Bureau’s three centralized collection facilities in Hagerstown, Maryland; Jeffersonville, Indiana; and Tucson, Arizona.

    To be eligible to participate in the CPS, individuals must be 15 years of age or over and not in the Armed Forces. People in institutions, such as prisons, long-term care hospitals, and nursing homes are ineligible to be interviewed in the CPS. In general, the BLS publishes labor force data only for people aged 16 and over, since those under 16 are limited in their labor market activities by compulsory schooling and child labor laws. No upper age limit is used, and full-time students are treated the same as nonstudents. One person generally responds for all eligible members of the household. The person who responds is called the ‘‘reference person’’ and usually is the person who either owns or rents the housing unit. If the reference person is not knowledgeable about the employment status of the others in the household, attempts are made to contact those individuals directly.

    In addition to the regular labor force questions, the CPS often includes supplemental questions on subjects of interest to labor market analysts. These include annual work activity and income, veteran status, school enrollment, contingent employment, worker displacement, and job tenure, among other topics. Because of the survey’s large sample size and broad population coverage, a wide range of sponsors use the CPS supplements to collect data on topics as diverse as expectation of family size, tobacco use, computer use, and voting patterns.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-14-2013 at 07:29 PM.

  9. #8
    ah, I see, the old Lies, damn lies, and Statistics ploy HAHa



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  11. #9
    So basically if the real unemployment is the upwards of 25% then there are a lot of lazy a$$ people or the economy is really that bad?
    “First of all, if you’ve got health insurance, you like your doctors, you like your plan, you can keep your doctor, you can keep your plan. Nobody is talking about taking that away from you.” Lying Sack of Crap

  12. #10
    A better way to look at unemployment is to look at the percentage of people employed. It's the lowest it has been since I believe 1981 around 55%. Maybe someone can get that number or chart for us???
    If Rand does not win the Republican nomination, he should buck the controlled two party system and run as an Independent for President in 2016 and give Americans a real option to vote for.

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  13. #11
    Look at the other factor in counting the unemployed, or should I say not counting the unemployed

    February 2013, BLS removed 300,000 from the labor pool



    Not in Labor Force (LNS15000000)

    2013-02: 89,304 Thousands of Persons *** Last 5 Observations
    2013-01: 89,008
    2012-12: 88,839
    2012-11: 88,855
    2012-10: 88,407

    Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2013-03-08 8:17 AM CST
    Last edited by HOLLYWOOD; 03-14-2013 at 07:46 PM.
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  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Liberty74 View Post
    A better way to look at unemployment is to look at the percentage of people employed. It's the lowest it has been since I believe 1981 around 55%. Maybe someone can get that number or chart for us???
    That would be the Labor Force Participation Rate. The percent of people aged 16 and over who are considered in the work force. It has been as high historically as 67.2% and today is 63.5%- down but not dramatically- less than four full percentage points. The chart looks dramatic but check the scale on the left side. The bottom is not zero but 63. This shows the figures since 1980. We are about the same as we were back then.

    http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000



    How about a 50 year chart? It was below 60% until the 1970's.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-14-2013 at 08:11 PM.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    That would be the Labor Force Participation Rate. The percent of people aged 16 and over who are considered in the work force. It has been as high historically as 67.2% and today is 63.5%- down but not dramatically- less than four full percentage points. The chart looks dramatic but check the scale on the left side. The bottom is not zero but 63. This shows the figures since 1980. We are about the same as we were back then.

    http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000



    How about a 50 year chart? It was below 60% until the 1970's.
    I question this chart for it does not take into account that we went off the gold standard in 1972 and entered the fiat era we exist in now.
    This is the real beginning of serious devaluation of the dollar and the start of both spouses having to work to pay the mortgage and bills.
    This means an increase in employed Americans to meet the new standard of both spouses working to provide for their families.
    In fact my father in the 70's was able to provide plenty for our family until we hit the 80's. His job had not changed and he was still a union superintendent in the construction field making a salary that increased with supposed cost of living increases.
    If my siblings and I had not moved out and got jobs my mother would have had to go to work to meet the family budget which was all ready being cut back for years to put food on the table. I have not had a raise at my fire sprinkler company in 5 years and my college educated girlfriend is under employed at her company. We are barely making it now with 2 incomes and all I see are low wage jobs created in this slow crumble collapse so I stay at my company for job seniority (12 years).
    What I am trying to say is the employment numbers can not be compared to the 50s and 60s because they are different eras.

  16. #14
    You are right- things are different now in labor force participation. But not because Nixon closed the gold window to foreigners in the 1970's. Things changed culturally- more women entered the labor force. In the 1950's and 1960's they were discouraged from getting jobs. That is why the Labor Force Participation Rate rose so much during the 70's and 80's. In the 50's and 60's the participation rate was below 60% and mostly males.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-15-2013 at 01:30 PM.

  17. #15
    On another note, the rush to disability seems to be increasing from what I see. No jobs...must qualify for disability so I can get mo free money.
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  18. #16
    Let's say that unemployment really is improving. If the numbers for people on food stamps is correct then the jobs being created really don't look like they are decent jobs.

    “First of all, if you’ve got health insurance, you like your doctors, you like your plan, you can keep your doctor, you can keep your plan. Nobody is talking about taking that away from you.” Lying Sack of Crap



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by shane77m View Post
    Let's say that unemployment really is improving. If the numbers for people on food stamps is correct then the jobs being created really don't look like they are decent jobs.

    Hey just what are you trying to say there pal? Looks like a normal curve bar graph as populations increase inside of a western economy built upon centrally controlled paradigmes.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by puppetmaster View Post
    On another note, the rush to disability seems to be increasing from what I see. No jobs...must qualify for disability so I can get mo free money.
    And people don't even bother to lie about it. A painter and a mover I hired both happily told me how they gave up their official companies and were only working side jobs while waiting for their disability to come through. Un-freaking real.

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Michigan11 View Post
    Hey just what are you trying to say there pal? Looks like a normal curve bar graph as populations increase inside of a western economy built upon centrally controlled paradigmes.
    Dang. People were getting busy procreating starting about 2008.
    “First of all, if you’ve got health insurance, you like your doctors, you like your plan, you can keep your doctor, you can keep your plan. Nobody is talking about taking that away from you.” Lying Sack of Crap

  23. #20
    LibForestPaul
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    In the number you see on the news and in articles (the "U3" figure in the chart above), a person first must either have a job or be looking for one to be in the workforce- receiving unemployment benefits is not relevant. But as a condition of receiving unemployment benefits, you are supposed to still be actively looking for a job- some may lie about that to keep the benefits- saying they are looking for work- and when the benifits run out now admit they aren't looking for one. If they say they are not looking for a job, they aren't counted as part of the workforce and aren't counted as unemployed. If your benefits ran out but you are still actively looking for a job, then you are still in the workforce and counted as unemployed.

    The important factor here is not do you or did you receive any unemployment benefits but are you currently actively looking for work.
    When do they ask after your benefits run out whether you are or are not looking for a job? They randomly call every two weeks and ask "Hey, still looking". And the unemployed with no benefits replies "Indeed". Then they hit a lever and count this in the unemployement figures? Correct?

  24. #21
    LibForestPaul
    Member

    Maybe when they become involved in a heist and are arrested, they are asked, we see your unemployment benefits are over. Officer " Did you consider your heist a job". And the unemployed rogue responds" Indeed, officer". Then that officer pulls a lever and that lever adds this convict to the tally of unemployed.

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    In the number you see on the news and in articles (the "U3" figure in the chart above), a person first must either have a job or be looking for one to be in the workforce- receiving unemployment benefits is not relevant. But as a condition of receiving unemployment benefits, you are supposed to still be actively looking for a job- some may lie about that to keep the benefits- saying they are looking for work- and when the benifits run out now admit they aren't looking for one. If they say they are not looking for a job, they aren't counted as part of the workforce and aren't counted as unemployed. If your benefits ran out but you are still actively looking for a job, then you are still in the workforce and counted as unemployed.

    The important factor here is not do you or did you receive any unemployment benefits but are you currently actively looking for work.
    FYI, unemployment work search requirements are waved for trade union members. Members are called by union locals when their name reaches the top of the out of work list and a work order request is placed by a contractor. The work could be for as little as one day.
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  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by LibForestPaul View Post
    When do they ask after your benefits run out whether you are or are not looking for a job? They randomly call every two weeks and ask "Hey, still looking". And the unemployed with no benefits replies "Indeed". Then they hit a lever and count this in the unemployement figures? Correct?
    It is a bunch of questions they ask, but yes, if they call you and you aren't working and say you are looking for a job (they will ask what kind of work and where you applied sorts of questions- I had a link earelier) then yes, you are counted as unemployed- on unemployment benefits or not.

  27. #24
    1980 , yep , pretty much. Has the median income covered the increases in energy, food , gasoline, property tax , insurance ?



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    And people don't even bother to lie about it. A painter and a mover I hired both happily told me how they gave up their official companies and were only working side jobs while waiting for their disability to come through. Un-freaking real.
    Oh it's real. Real sickening.
    "The Patriarch"

  30. #26
    The Fed's Industrial production index showed .07 % growth for Feb, they were expecting , about that .I was expecting it to be about flat/zero. That gets it back to almost 80 % of 2007.That sounds about right without checking the # of people employed chart .Probably 20 % less. I look at this , I do not see recovery .



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