Many of you are probably doing this right now
and wondering what I have been smoking.
Now before you start yelling at me to stick to the campaigns goals and to get my head out of the clouds, trust me I have good statistical evidence to back me up.
I was just looking at the trend line over at RonPaulgraphs.com, which I spend way too much time at. and I noticed the end of quarter projections are getting up around 7 million. Not bad but not where we want to be!
But then I noticed a flaw in the trend line. It is a straight average line that goes up as the donations grow. It does not factor continued growth into the projection.
Then I noticed something else interesting. We have increased almost EXACTLY $175K each week over the previous week. We only have three weeks of data, that is true, and it will be interesting to see if it continues. However, for the current trend line to be accurate we would need to average about $500K per week - in other words we would need to DROP back down to previous levels for that to be accurate!
My calculation is assuming a continued $175K week over week growth. That may not turn out to be the case and only time will tell. However, it is what the data CURRENTLY indicates will happen!
That being said here are the numbers: (in thousands of dollars)
WEEK 1 321 (actual)
WEEK 2 501 (actual)
WEEK 3 676 (actual)
WEEK 4 850 (projected)
WEEK 5 1025 (projected)
WEEK 6 1200 (projected)
WEEK 7 1375 (projected)
WEEK 8 1550 (projected)
WEEK 9 1725 (projected)
WEEK 10 1900 (projected)
WEEK 11 2075 (projected)
WEEK 12 2250 (projected)
WEEK 13 2425 (projected)
TOTAL 17,872,000 (projected)
Please do not just look at the numbers and then post below and call me a buffoon! Read my methodology and if you understand statistical analysis you will know that I am correct. Even if we factor in for a dropoff in growth (which I think is unlikely with the advertising blitz that is coming) We should handily get the $12 million goal.
DO NOT get complacent! For this to happen we have to keep working as hard or harder than we have, we need a big end of October push and I hope that November 5th can live up to what it is looking like!
This is just for those who are feeling that the $12 million is out of reach... IT ISN'T!
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