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Thread: Why Ron Paul will raise almost $18 million this quarter!!!

  1. #1

    Why Ron Paul will raise almost $18 million this quarter!!!

    Many of you are probably doing this right now
    and wondering what I have been smoking.

    Now before you start yelling at me to stick to the campaigns goals and to get my head out of the clouds, trust me I have good statistical evidence to back me up.

    I was just looking at the trend line over at RonPaulgraphs.com, which I spend way too much time at. and I noticed the end of quarter projections are getting up around 7 million. Not bad but not where we want to be!

    But then I noticed a flaw in the trend line. It is a straight average line that goes up as the donations grow. It does not factor continued growth into the projection.

    Then I noticed something else interesting. We have increased almost EXACTLY $175K each week over the previous week. We only have three weeks of data, that is true, and it will be interesting to see if it continues. However, for the current trend line to be accurate we would need to average about $500K per week - in other words we would need to DROP back down to previous levels for that to be accurate!

    My calculation is assuming a continued $175K week over week growth. That may not turn out to be the case and only time will tell. However, it is what the data CURRENTLY indicates will happen!

    That being said here are the numbers: (in thousands of dollars)

    WEEK 1 321 (actual)
    WEEK 2 501 (actual)
    WEEK 3 676 (actual)
    WEEK 4 850 (projected)
    WEEK 5 1025 (projected)
    WEEK 6 1200 (projected)
    WEEK 7 1375 (projected)
    WEEK 8 1550 (projected)
    WEEK 9 1725 (projected)
    WEEK 10 1900 (projected)
    WEEK 11 2075 (projected)
    WEEK 12 2250 (projected)
    WEEK 13 2425 (projected)

    TOTAL 17,872,000 (projected)

    Please do not just look at the numbers and then post below and call me a buffoon! Read my methodology and if you understand statistical analysis you will know that I am correct. Even if we factor in for a dropoff in growth (which I think is unlikely with the advertising blitz that is coming) We should handily get the $12 million goal.

    DO NOT get complacent! For this to happen we have to keep working as hard or harder than we have, we need a big end of October push and I hope that November 5th can live up to what it is looking like!

    This is just for those who are feeling that the $12 million is out of reach... IT ISN'T!



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  3. #2
    Growth rarely occurs in a straight line though.

    It's dangerous to plan or place expectations on projecting a small dataset.
    Hi!

  4. #3
    I think your estimate is good. But I think your week 5 is low. The 5th of November is going to be huge.

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by me3 View Post
    Growth rarely occurs in a straight line though.

    It's dangerous to plan or place expectations on projecting a small dataset.
    That is true, but wouldn't logic dictate that if anything growth would accelerate as the number of supporters grows and also as the advertising kicks in? That is why I think this may actually be a conservative guesstimate. It is certainly not "head in the clouds" numbers.

  6. #5
    Well, we're going to miss our goal tomorrow unless donations dramatically increase tomorrow. That we know for sure.

  7. #6
    Thanks for breaking it down! This is encourging! I think encoragemnet and fox news debtes keep us flush with cash!

  8. #7
    why stop there? by your logic, in a few months he will be raising trillions...

  9. #8
    I say 18 million...


    when is the last day we can donate? is there one?
    I love my country like Ron. Ron Paul 2008



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  11. #9
    You are basis this on the growth curve which I could see staying constant like you said, but Nov 5th will put a kink in it. I think we will pull in between 1.5 and 3 Million that day alone. After Nov. 5th however it will drop off tremendously, probably back to early Oct levels and we will slowly grow again throughout the rest of the Quarter. The good news is that the Ron Paul ads will hit in mid-late Nov and should bring in a good influx of money.
    - Ron Paul for President 2008
    - I've already got my tickets to Washington D.C for Jan 2009. How bout you?

  12. #10
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  13. #11
    Growth in numbers of supporters is the intangible quantity here.

    I expect a huge bump after the Tonight Show appearance.

  14. #12
    It is true that donations have been growing exponentially, which is what you would expect as more people join the campaign. However, all exponential growth patterns break down after the law of diminishing returns comes into effect. What that point is in this campaign is anyone's guess.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by partypooper View Post
    why stop there? by your logic, in a few months he will be raising trillions...
    Actually you did not do the math or you were just making an off the cuff remark. Even if you projected this out another three months beyond this quarter, he would still be under 5 million a week. Not even close to a hundred million total, not even 1/10th of a BILLION, let alone a trillion.

    Or maybe your hyperbole was just to emphasize your determination to be a wet blanket. Have you ever even taken a statistics class?

    I certainly don't mind anyone pointing out flaws, but at least run the actual numbers before you make comments like that.


    Trillions.

  16. #14
    you know, i was thinking this same thing. the projections don't take into consideration exactly what you said.
    "There is no such thing as society: there are individual men and women, and there are families." --Margaret Thatcher

    "You may have to fight a battle more than once to win it."--Margaret Thatcher

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Hook View Post
    It is true that donations have been growing exponentially, which is what you would expect as more people join the campaign. However, all exponential growth patterns break down after the law of diminishing returns comes into effect. What that point is in this campaign is anyone's guess.
    Yep, but that exponential growth "break down" in a marketing campaign does not happen until market saturation has occurred.

    I am sure LibertyEagle will let us know when we are in danger of that happening!

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by xcalybur View Post
    You are basis this on the growth curve which I could see staying constant like you said, but Nov 5th will put a kink in it. I think we will pull in between 1.5 and 3 Million that day alone. After Nov. 5th however it will drop off tremendously, probably back to early Oct levels and we will slowly grow again throughout the rest of the Quarter. The good news is that the Ron Paul ads will hit in mid-late Nov and should bring in a good influx of money.
    More people must commit to do that - and so far we only have about 4000 people thats cetainly not enough



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Hook View Post
    It is true that donations have been growing exponentially, which is what you would expect as more people join the campaign. However, all exponential growth patterns break down after the law of diminishing returns comes into effect. What that point is in this campaign is anyone's guess.
    Well teh good news is unlike Gulinai unlike Romney and Clinton Paul is raising alot of money for someone whose name ha sno where near staurated the US sheeple....i mean many have not even heard of him.....so if we educate we are in teh cat bird seat my firends nd thsi many will raise a butt load of dough

  21. #18
    As others have said, it's certainly not going to be linear growth -- I expect we'll see bumps towards the end of the months, on November 5th, and potentially during other spontaneous events throughout the quarter. What we don't know is how many other potential supporters lurk in the weeds, waiting to be convinced that we're viable, and others who haven't heard the message yet but will hear it and will be receptive to it. I think we'll hit the $12 million but wouldn't be surprised if that's due to an absolutely massive December ($6-7 million).
    California - Congressional District 8

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Original_Intent View Post
    Yep, but that exponential growth "break down" in a marketing campaign does not happen until market saturation has occurred.

    I am sure LibertyEagle will let us know when we are in danger of that happening!
    Again, anyone's guess. Hopefully later than sooner.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by partypooper View Post
    why stop there? by your logic, in a few months he will be raising trillions...
    This is straight line, not exponential. It would take a billion weeks to reach the trillions.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by xcalybur View Post
    You are basis this on the growth curve which I could see staying constant like you said, but Nov 5th will put a kink in it. I think we will pull in between 1.5 and 3 Million that day alone. After Nov. 5th however it will drop off tremendously, probably back to early Oct levels and we will slowly grow again throughout the rest of the Quarter. The good news is that the Ron Paul ads will hit in mid-late Nov and should bring in a good influx of money.
    I have no problem with kinks on the upward side of expectations. Even if the next week drops off while people recover fiscally, that really doesn't matter. Just look at it as "pre-contributions" for the next week!

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Original_Intent View Post

    Or maybe your hyperbole was just to emphasize your determination to be a wet blanket. Have you ever even taken a statistics class?

    I certainly don't mind anyone pointing out flaws, but at least run the actual numbers before you make comments like that.


    Trillions.
    yes, it was a hyperbole that i hoped will get people donating as opposed to "projecting" others donating. we are very much behind the schedule and now we are behind the mere <500k schedule.

    and i have two degrees in statistics.

  26. #23
    if we had data of number of first time donors it would useful....thats where the growth will come from as opposed to the existing base donating over and over

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by partypooper View Post
    yes, it was a hyperbole that i hoped will get people donating as opposed to "projecting" others donating. we are very much behind the schedule and now we are behind the mere <500k schedule.

    and i have two degrees in statistics.
    ah well you certainly have the edge on me statistics-wise - by a couple of degrees!

    As I said in my first post, this was not intended to get people complacent, it is intended to give them hope and see that it is acheivable!

    I was not just projecting others donating, I will be an active participant, right now I am planning a Halloween contribution (small) and either $100 (likely) or $200 (if I can sweet talk my wife) on the November 5th day.

    Thanks for clarifying your intentions. To me good news is more motivational than bad news!



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    This is straight line, not exponential. It would take a billion weeks to reach the trillions.
    i'm no expert on math but okay so if the donation rate was growing like: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32. . . that would be exponential because it's doubling. yes?

    but if it grows at a rate of, let' say, 1.3 then what does that mean? i can see the amount donated growing, but i don't know if exponential is the correct word.
    "There is no such thing as society: there are individual men and women, and there are families." --Margaret Thatcher

    "You may have to fight a battle more than once to win it."--Margaret Thatcher

  30. #26

    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by Original_Intent View Post
    Thanks for clarifying your intentions. To me good news is more motivational than bad news!
    well, whatever works

    i have to apologize, i wasn't actually reading your numbers, just got a gist of it... am just very worried about the fundraising and i see so many "lets raise 10 million in an hour" posts...

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by koob View Post
    i'm no expert on math but okay so if the donation rate was growing like: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32. . . that would be exponential because it's doubling. yes?

    but if it grows at a rate of, let' say, 1.3 then what does that mean? i can see the amount donated growing, but i don't know if exponential is the correct word.
    Arithmetic I believe.

  32. #28
    For aome reason linear growth sounds right, we should ask our statistician what it is called.

    It is not exponential, but it takes growth trends into account.

    Exponential growth would be silly and there is not data to support it.

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by koob View Post
    i'm no expert on math but okay so if the donation rate was growing like: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32. . . that would be exponential because it's doubling. yes?

    but if it grows at a rate of, let' say, 1.3 then what does that mean? i can see the amount donated growing, but i don't know if exponential is the correct word.
    It is exponential, just with an base of 1.3 instead of 2.0
    Last edited by Hook; 10-21-2007 at 11:18 PM.

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Original_Intent View Post
    For aome reason linear growth sounds right, we should ask our statistician what it is called.

    It is not exponential, but it takes growth trends into account.

    Exponential growth would be silly and there is not data to support it.
    Actually the curve is exponential. It takes into account repeating donors as well as new ones that come on board every day.

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