My predictions for the next six months to a year

[Original_Intent]

disclaimer: I am a know-nothing. These are jsut my gut feelings of what is going to happen and because I am going into a lot of detail I expect I will likely get a lot of this wrong. But, it will be interesting to look back a year from now and see how much of it is right or at least close.

First, the easy ones and what a lot of the later stuff is based on:

Tonight the GOP wins big. The House big, the Senate near-even, 1 or two seat majority either way.

Tomorrow, the FOMC announces some version of QE2, consensus is 500 Billion.

again, not really going out on a limb on those.

I expect PMS and oil to be fairly flat, possibly taking a short term pummeling. 9 months to a year out I expect them to start climbing strongly.

Food prices - up up and up

I think the stock market is going to go nuts if the first two predictions are right. I think it is possible that we will see new highs in the DJIA within 9 months. This is just going to be an insanely fast bubble that will also burst rapidly. Call it a micro "business cycle". AFAIK this would be pretty unprecedented in history.

Unemployment I think is actually going to go down a decent amount within the next six months. Credit is going to loosen and I feel there will be an overall sense of a "return to normalcy" as the average Joe heaves a sigh of relief that "insnave Obama" was able to be reigned in. There will be a flase sense that the American people actually exerted some control on the government and will generate confidence in the future, spending, a brief period of apparent prosperity. I think this will be the calm of the eye of the hurricane.

Home prices will continue to decline.

Wages I believe will see minor improvements.

Most of this I think in the next 6 to 9 months.

A year out I think most of these will sharply reverse, by the end of 2011 we are in much worse shape than today.

Again, this is just my magic eight ball speaking. There is no rational reason why anyone should listen to me. It's just what my gut tells me is coming and I felt like putting it out there for ridicule, or whatever. Call this my "Weatherbill California Eearthquake Tsunami of Sept 2010" thread if you will.

Enjoy the ride. Make a note to ressurect this thread in a year to 15 months and laugh at me.

edit: I might as well go all Alex Jones on you and predict a major false flag/terrorist attack of at least 9/11 proportions before the end of 2011.

[sevin]

Makes sense. I pretty much agree with you except I'm not so sure PMs will stay flat or that the Dow will reach a new high. But who knows? It's gonna be entertaining, that's for sure.

[Original_Intent]

Well on PMs I expect a lot of volatility, but within a pretty flat range. For instance silver bouncing between $23 and $27, gold $1200-$1600. Even though trending flatish I think a lot of rollercoasters within that range.

I hate stocks and think it's a bull market for suckers coming up.

[Zippyjuan]

In the next six months I really don't expect things to change by very much from where they are now.

[jclay2]

Thats a pretty interesting prediction op. I think you are right except the mini bubble which you describe will be much smaller, although still present. But yeah 1200 S&P would not surprise me.

[Meatwasp]

I predict silver and Gold will go down as there will be more faith in the dollar.. I hope I am right.

[ILUVRP]

6-12 months out.
gold---$1500/oz silver---$30/oz DOW---11000 unemployment---10%

Otherwise every about where its at now.

[LiveFree79]

Unemployment is not going anywhere but up. What exactly do you see stimulating the economy enough for companies to start hiring en masse? The only thing I see happening is a major outbreak of war the likes of which we have never seen in 40 years. Be it with China or Iran.

[puppetmaster]

QE2 better be 1 Trillion plus or big market crash......500B will not be enough to float the market up

[Suzu]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38092759/

[Free Moral Agent]

Will mining stocks follow the same trend as PM bullion?

[Suzu]

Not necessarily, but unless you really know what you're doing, stay out of paper altogether. Buy the real thing, you'll need it.

[tpreitzel]

As a result of this election, it'll be interesting to see where the dollars heads relative to precious metals.