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Thread: 538: Dennis Will Poll 28% election day

  1. #1

    538: Dennis Will Poll 28% election day

    538 politics is pegging John Dennis with 28% of the vote on election day.

    Although this sounds bad, it is really good historically. Pelosi's strongest opponent ever polled 18.5%, a Republican in 1994.
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  3. #2
    538 politics IMOHO is easily 15 to 20 points off --- john dennis feels like he's sooo close to a 43% to 48% final tally

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Aratus View Post
    538 politics IMOHO is easily 15 to 20 points off --- john dennis feels like he's sooo close to a 43% to 48% final tally
    Do you have a source for this? I know he's mentioned being really optimistic about his chances, wondering if you had an interview or article where he thinks it may be near that threshold. Conversely, if you work within the campaign, that may explain your insider knowledge.

  5. #4

    Lightbulb i'm calling this a combo morph of the alvin greene and scott brown effect...

    lets postulate that frisco right now is similar to my house district.
    in my district, in my home state, scott brown LEAPED ahead by
    TEN to FIFTEEN points in the last week to three days of his
    campaign. i cannot disclose any internal push polls that i have
    never seen, and i am not connected up to JOHN DENNIS's people.
    Last edited by Aratus; 10-11-2010 at 03:09 PM. Reason: i once thought martha coakley would do better...

  6. #5
    even my being told that only 9% of the voters are registered GOP ...this still does
    not doom the JOHN DENNIS campaign to a slightly better than average NOV tally!
    the mercurical fluidity of finicky fickle independents is truely infamous & legendary.

  7. #6
    You are already seeing Dennis at 28% in this model, stronger than any other challenger to Pelosi in the past. There is no way that I see Dennis at 43%, or 40% for that matter. If he were at 35% that would still be a spectacular showing against Pelosi.

    But considering that the only poll of the race had Dennis at 19%, and that he has jumped almost 10 points since then, that is pretty darn good in San Francisco. In this race, I don't see any problems with Silver's model.
    Interested in politics? Check out Red Racing Horses for daily updates on electoral politics, redistricting, and the presidential campaigns.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Aratus View Post
    even my being told that only 9% of the voters are registered GOP ...this still does
    not doom the JOHN DENNIS campaign to a slightly better than average NOV tally!
    the mercurical fluidity of finicky fickle independents is truely infamous & legendary.
    Republicans are 9%,

    Independents are 30%.

    Dennis could get ALL Republican and ALL Independent votes (not going to happen, but for the sake of argument), and he'd still get crushed 61-39.

    Some of you people are simply delusional in your optimism.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Imperial View Post
    You are already seeing Dennis at 28% in this model, stronger than any other challenger to Pelosi in the past. There is no way that I see Dennis at 43%, or 40% for that matter. If he were at 35% that would still be a spectacular showing against Pelosi.
    35% would be a spectacular showing in that district. I think he'd be doing extremely well to crack 30%. Even 25% would be decent.



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  11. #9

    Talking dang-it dang-it i know i think half irish, half yankee and i am a total baystater

    lets assume 10% of HER noble Democrats are like classic southern or border~state yellow dogs

    in that they once humoured a wise ronnie reagan before his short term and long term memory

    had their obvious glitches. swing a workingclass almost reagan-ite ex-union blue or yellow

    dawg or some critter st. patrick's day green almost foaming at the mouth in high discontent

    and then you have a victory arrive that is more than simply metaphysical or esoteric methinks!

  12. #10
    these are "purple shamrock" verses henry cabot lodge junior thoughts on the brain circa 1936...

  13. #11
    i spent the past year doing opines inside the rand paul 2010 forum as he edged past

    sen. mitch mcconnell's personal choise for jim bunning's senate seat and yes, i expect

    trey grayson to be a kentucky come-back kid down the road, who can put a distance

    between his own cherubic fess parker good looks and the lopsided 60 to 40 trouncing!

    i see john dennis (R) as being positioned correctly inside the district, even down to the

    foreign policy debate we have let alone the way hemp seperates out from mere joints

    and harder drugs! IMOHO he could pull at traditional reagan democrats of which california

    seems to bave been somewhat of a hive colony thereto of! like even if ms. nancy pelosi

    has had very impressive november numbers in the recent past why must we assume that

    indeed ALL her Democrats must totally ticket ballot vote like an army of robotized zombies!



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