For those of you who don't know, Larry Sabato heads the University of Virginia
Center for Politics and is head of the Crystal Ball, a leading prognosticator for Senate/Governor/House races.
Kentucky: Just wild, and one of our favorites. Secretary of State Trey Grayson was the establishment GOP choice and was backed strongly by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Tuesday’s primary. But former presidential candidate Ron Paul’s son, Rand Paul, a self-described Tea Party candidate, won the Republican Senate nod in an overwhelming landslide. McConnell had helped to ease out GOP Sen. Jim Bunning, who would have lost in November. Yet now he is stuck with a party nominee who dislikes him and won’t even commit to reelecting a fellow Kentuckian to his Senate post. Paul has some very un-Republican views on foreign policy and drugs–or at least he once did–and the fall election is going to be as dirty as any in the nation this year. Meanwhile, the Democrats narrowly chose Attorney General Jack Conway over Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo to carry their Senate colors. Conway was considered by Democratic insiders to be the stronger politician, but he’s got his work cut out for him in this 57% McCain state where Obama’s policies are not popular. Our sense is that Paul is the favorite and likely to win the seat, but he’s also fully capable of throwing it away with controversial statements and an undisciplined, divisive campaign. We’ll see. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...ljs2010052001/
"I've been saying for weeks that it was 50-50 whether Rand Paul would win by a mile in Nov. or blow the election. More evidence last night." http://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/14375460957
"With massive margin, Paul gets big bump from primary. He's Nov. frontrunner. But he needs message discipline; multiple gaffes can be deadly." http://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/14259380694
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