PPP: Paul up 52-34

[Matt Collins]

I hope the GOP supports Rand Paul in the general, or else he is toast.

Uhh... have you checked the atmosphere recently? Seats are going Republican, not Democrat. Rand WILL win the general. He'll still have to fight for it, but it's his for the taking

[skyorbit]

RAnd just has to make sure he campaigns just as hard, going to every meet and great and engagement he can. 1 or 2 a day, just like he ran hard in the Primary.

I has to run like he's behind, just like he did during the primary.

Tracy

[TheConstitutionLives]

Yes, given the responses to these questions and several others in the poll, it's amazing that Paul has the lead he does.
It leaves me perplexed...but ecstatic.

Me too

[Fozz]

Uhh... have you checked the atmosphere recently? Seats are going Republican, not Democrat. Rand WILL win the general. He'll still have to fight for it, but it's his for the taking

A conventional Republican (like Treyson) would easily win the seat, but Rand Paul is much more vulnerable, as the early May PPP poll shows (Ras has a pro-GOP bias).

You never know if the political winds will shift in the next few months, if the economy is perceived to be recovering, and if financial reform passes (the Dems will look like they have accomplished something).

The Democrat will link Paul to Bunning, who is not exactly popular among general voters.

[beazy]

Ron Paul at 8% in a 2012 poll. Lots of people still support the war in Iraq...

Maybe one of the reasons contributing to him only polling at 8% was the fact they asked "Do you consider yourself a Libertarian?" immediately prior. Which was a 4-1 no. People in their heads go .... I'm not a Libertarian capital L I'm a Republican. Then they get asked about who they like in 2012 and associate Ron Paul with libertarianism. Then vote for Palin or someone instead.

[thomas-in-ky]

Yes, given the responses to these questions and several others in the poll, it's amazing that Paul has the lead he does.
It leaves me perplexed...but ecstatic.

Two more questions in the poll would clear things up....
Have you seen a Trey Grayson sign anywhere?
Have you seen at least 100 Rand Paul signs?

This is one of those election years where the 6 year senator's election lines up with the 4 year local elections. People in our county are paying much more attention to the local races than the senate races. Period. It's about name recognition, and Rand has won that battle with signs and Fox News appearances. Plus Rand has genuine grass roots support. One local Rand evangelist can influence ten voters, without getting very deep into the issues.

edit :
BTW, I actually met one of the 363 likely republican voters that was surveyed in this very poll. He was in a local diner tonight and I was talking up Rand Paul and he said he was polled last night. He described these exact same questions. It was a robo-call - he used the keypad to answer - he said it wouldn't let you go on to the next question unless you answered the current question. Normally, he wouldn't have answered his phone but he thought it was his wife calling. So they did poll real people!

[Thargok]

If you haven't seen 100 Rand Paul signs, you haven't been looking. I've probably seen 100 Rand Paul signs a week and at least 10 a day (that I'm not putting up)

The other day I was scoping out a place where one of my signs disappeared only to find that a resident had made sure the road had a nice 4x8 drilled into the fence, and I'm talking about a major road in Lexington that probably has over 5000 cars pass by it daily (a little less now that UK is out of session)

[doctor jones]

YouTube - Trey Grayson Campaign Manager "Phanton Numbers" Hodson on recent polls in KY

[economics102]

Ouch...it's gonna be mighty tough for Trey to steal an election when he's down 18 points...

[sailingaway]

A conventional Republican (like Treyson) would easily win the seat, but Rand Paul is much more vulnerable, as the early May PPP poll shows (Ras has a pro-GOP bias).

You never know if the political winds will shift in the next few months, if the economy is perceived to be recovering, and if financial reform passes (the Dems will look like they have accomplished something).

The Democrat will link Paul to Bunning, who is not exactly popular among general voters.

Yeah, but his favorables with independents were huge in December, and I think he can get most of that back when he starts focusing on them.

[sailingaway]

Maybe one of the reasons contributing to him only polling at 8% was the fact they asked "Do you consider yourself a Libertarian?" immediately prior. Which was a 4-1 no. People in their heads go .... I'm not a Libertarian capital L I'm a Republican. Then they get asked about who they like in 2012 and associate Ron Paul with libertarianism. Then vote for Palin or someone instead.

Yeah, I commented at ppp about that. It is a label issue.