Isn't the whole war with Iran meme annoying? Every couple weeks it seems to come up apropo of nothing. A couple asshole leftover neo cons will make some statement or the president of Iran will make some moronic statement and all the sudden people are writing columns and counter columns about it. and it never happens. and yet, it keeps coming up. You aren't the only one who thinks it INSANE. So why has it been kicked around since longer than anyone can remember? Hell if I know but here's why I think it won't happen.
1. The US isn't in the same financial place it was before the Iraq war. Adam Smith once wrote words to the effect that if your country has a surplus than war is imminent. The 80's and 90's somehow managed to be pretty good to our bottom line and war with Iraq was going to be a feather in our cap that we would be happy to pay a little bit for. it didn't work out that way. it went so bad that it changed the entire paradigm of the world.
Why did it go so bad? Well, part of it relates to my next point: the propaganda broke down. They should have planted some WMD's, first of all. duh. and they should never ever had actully followed through with any attempt to let the iraqi people rebuild their country on their own or any of that nonsense. The surge was when they finally embraced the whole thing as what it was, an expensive wasteful liberal nation building effort with the US's face in everyones business.
btw, The war wasn't about oil and certainly wan't about any terrorist threat from anyone. It was about the US and Israel showing strength in regards to the insolent iraq chesspiece. It's like a religion for people at the pentagon, never showing weakness.
2. The propaganda for war with Iran has already broken down. Too many people have already stated the reason for war with Iran: israels desire to have us go to war with Iran. Israels supporters mean well but this is very bad form. Israel doesn't pay taxes to the US and isn't covered by our constitution and people even those who are utterly apathetic know this. You can't get there from here telling people a war for someone else is a war for them, especially not in 2010. You need the anthrax labs, the 9/11 connections all that stuff. You don't need a good story but you need a story.
So I don't think there is going to be a war with Iran by us or by the Israelis and I don't think it's because of our troops being in harms way, the possiblity of blowback or the fact that war with Iran is morally wrong, doesn't make anyone safer and will end up being expensive. It's mainly because the narrative is off. That's my opinion anyway.