Who ARE All Those Early GOP Primary Voters?

[lynnf]

(sorry, I don't have the $$ for a paid subscription, so only have the free one)

http://www.quorumreport.com/ [daily buzz]



February 26, 2010 4:43 PM
WHO ARE ALL THOSE EARLY GOP PRIMARY VOTERS?

Austin pollster finds, 16.7% voted in 2008 Demo primary

With early voting in the Republican primary approaching presidential year levels, political professionals have been trying to figure out who is showing up at the polls.

Democratic pollster Jeff Smith at Opinion Analysts in Austin has been crunching the numbers. Through yesterday, h comes up with some interesting observations.

“Attached is an updated version of the turnout analysis from yesterday. The most interesting thing seems to be the large number of 2008 Democratic primary voters who have voted in the 2010 Republican primary.


The rest of the story, subscribers only

[invisible]

Hopefully this is good news! Notice the complete lack of actual exit poll results (not just here, obviously we don't have the full article). This is the first mention I've seen anywhere of exit polling being conducted. Surely the exit polls ARE being taken. I really think that the lack of them actually being reported tells us that Medina is going to be in the runoff, at the very least. Why else would there be a complete lack of exit polls being released, yet there is a big fuss being made about her numbers dropping within the margin of error in the telephone polls of prior primary voters? Can anyone come up with an alternate explanation for this?

[lynnf]

Hopefully this is good news! Notice the complete lack of actual exit poll results (not just here, obviously we don't have the full article). This is the first mention I've seen anywhere of exit polling being conducted. Surely the exit polls ARE being taken. I really think that the lack of them actually being reported tells us that Medina is going to be in the runoff, at the very least. Why else would there be a complete lack of exit polls being released, yet there is a big fuss being made about her numbers dropping within the margin of error in the telephone polls of prior primary voters? Can anyone come up with an alternate explanation for this?

not exactly as far as I know. I believe they are looking at actual data from
the county clerk who keeps voting records. they can get data to tell who voted and in which primary -- and by comparing with data from previous elections, they know who crossed over.

------------

lynn

[Number19]

Today in the Houston Chronicle they were addressing the same question. Of course the news slant was that this benefited KBH, but the way a political scientist, Richard Murray, from the University of Houstion, put it : "...but who knows how they're voting. They could be voting for Debra Medina."

[libertybrewcity]

hopefully Debra medina voters

[The Eradicator]

I would think they're supporting KBH and that is where her upswing in votes is coming from.

[TXcarlosTX]

I know several deomocrats that voted for medina. There thinking is:

Anybody but perry.
No property taxes.

They voted for Medina.

[MikeStanart]

I'm baffled as well.

I know for sure of a few democrats who voted or KBH because she's "the most liberal". (trust me, I tried dealing with them to no end).

I have a feeling that the current polls are highly innacurrate because the polls mainly reflect previous primary voters.

Tuesday could prove to be a very, very interesting day. I pray for at the very least a run-off between Rick and Medina.


Oh, and if you live in Harris County please vote for my father, Stan Stanart for County Clerk.

[rancher89]

Exit polls help, are there any going on?

[TXcarlosTX]

Exit polls help, are there any going on?

Ive heard some good news. But not sure of the source of info. But out right victory is being talked about. We will see

[tmosley]

My mother was one of those new voters. She voted for Medina

[skilt]

Ive heard some good news. But not sure of the source of info. But out right victory is being talked about. We will see

I like the optimism, but hate the withholding of some kernal of information to support it. Give us somethin' - like the girlfriend of the guy who delivers pizza to the campaign heard a volunteer telling their father over the phone that there's a small chance (like one in a million - dumb and dumber allusion) that we may win based on exit polling.

[rp08orbust]

Ive heard some good news. But not sure of the source of info. But out right victory is being talked about. We will see

I hope it's not the argument based on voter-to-donor ratios that was used by some to project a Ron Paul win at the 2008 IA caucus.

[TXcarlosTX]

I like the optimism, but hate the withholding of some kernal of information to support it. Give us somethin' - like the girlfriend of the guy who delivers pizza to the campaign heard a volunteer telling their father over the phone that there's a small chance (like one in a million - dumb and dumber allusion) that we may win based on exit polling.

Tarrant County which is fortworth, medina inside exit polling at 54%. i got this from my san antonio headquaters. not sure. but thats what they said

[rp08orbust]

Tarrant County which is fortworth, medina inside exit polling at 54%. i got this from my san antonio headquaters. not sure. but thats what they said

Is the exit polling being done by the Medina campaign or by a "neutral" party?

[skilt]

Tarrant County which is fortworth, medina inside exit polling at 54%. i got this from my san antonio headquaters. not sure. but thats what they said

If that's the case, holy jesus. That's total rick perry country. I figured west texas may go medina (buy nature, they're a little more independent minded), but Tarrant county, mmmm, that could be telling.

[invisible]

Originally Posted by TXcarlosTX
Tarrant County which is fortworth, medina inside exit polling at 54%. i got this from my san antonio headquaters. not sure. but thats what they said

As I've suspected all along, I think this is EXACTLY the reason why we haven't seen ANY exit polling data - Debra is winning, and the media dosen't want anyone to know.

Is the exit polling being done by the Medina campaign or by a "neutral" party?

The words "inside exit polling" strongly imply if not outright state that this is being done by the campaign. Awfully hard to pull poll the results of an exit poll, though. I would argue that it wouldn't be accurate to take a poll by someone decked out in campaign gear, those being polled would probably just say they voted for that candidate. But if an "inside" poll was taken by people in regular street clothes, and did not appear obviously connected to any particular campaign, then exit polls are certainly accurate. Obviously, we do not know enough about the polling methods used to be able to determine whether this could be considered accurate and scientific, but it's the first I've heard of any actual exit poll results. Again, I think that the LACK of exit poll data being published in the media says more than anything else that Debra is going to be in the runoff, if not win outright.

[rp08orbust]

but it's the first I've heard of any actual exit poll results

The last PPP poll (post-Beckgate) had Medina four points behind KBH among those who had already voted in their sample of 400. Not the same as an exit poll (it's limited to the same "likely Republican voters" as the sample as a whole), but encouraging, considering that KBH is very unlikely to be attracting anywhere near the same number of new Republican voters as Debra Medina.

[rancher89]

As I've suspected all along, I think this is EXACTLY the reason why we haven't seen ANY exit polling data - Debra is winning, and the media dosen't want anyone to know.


The words "inside exit polling" strongly imply if not outright state that this is being done by the campaign. Awfully hard to pull poll the results of an exit poll, though. I would argue that it wouldn't be accurate to take a poll by someone decked out in campaign gear, those being polled would probably just say they voted for that candidate. But if an "inside" poll was taken by people in regular street clothes, and did not appear obviously connected to any particular campaign, then exit polls are certainly accurate. Obviously, we do not know enough about the polling methods used to be able to determine whether this could be considered accurate and scientific, but it's the first I've heard of any actual exit poll results. Again, I think that the LACK of exit poll data being published in the media says more than anything else that Debra is going to be in the runoff, if not win outright.

Exactly.

[Lymeade-Lady]

Tarrant County which is fortworth, medina inside exit polling at 54%. i got this from my san antonio headquaters. not sure. but thats what they said

Is this for real?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! How much of a fact is this or is it rumor?

[itshappening]

it could also be why DRUDGE highlighted that story because he has seen media memo on the exit polling that we're not hearing.

[trey4sports]

like ive said before, debra is putting up a great campaign and doing a LOT for the movement but your nucking futs if you think shes going to make the runoff

[TXcarlosTX]

like ive said before, debra is putting up a great campaign and doing a LOT for the movement but your nucking futs if you think shes going to make the runoff

lets see how it plays out.

[bruce leeroy]

I wouldnt bet the ranch on medina making it to the runoff but it could happen.
I think the big question mark is going to be how she does in the urban/suburban districts in the DFW, Houston, and Austin areas
I think Perry pretty much has east texas and the panhandle on lock, dont know about west texas though

[jsu718]

like ive said before, debra is putting up a great campaign and doing a LOT for the movement but your nucking futs if you think shes going to make the runoff

Quoted for posterity.

[american.swan]

If we do our part, one DAY a TRUE Ron Paul Republican will win a major office. That day may be when Rand wins in KY. This election cycle isn't going to come back. Look, let's say the GOP wins in 2012, which they will. Are they going to make real change? No. 2014? The DNC will have the angry vote. This is our best chance at a shocking miracle.

[Lymeade-Lady]

like ive said before, debra is putting up a great campaign and doing a LOT for the movement but your nucking futs if you think shes going to make the runoff

I'm curious if your in TX talking to average people. I am. I was shocked when my parents told me they were voting for her (voted McCain and were mad at me for voting 3rd party on principle). I went door to door and found someone who was saying they voted for her (it was the 2nd day of voting) and all her family was and they were so excited about her. Many were open and considering her. Only a couple didn't like her. Yes, some people are hung up on the truther thing, but we have convinced a couple easily to vote for her after talking about that. It's not nuts if you are on the ground seeing it. Maybe not likely, but definitely not nuts. I wasn't expecting it, but I'm working the polls tomorrow, b/c I think it is a very real possibility. Off to sleep--i've got work to do.

[AmericasLastHope]

Turnout light for Texas primary elections

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont...16aa45ba5.html

[xd9fan]

it will all come down to who has the Spark....
voter apathy and light turnout will only help Medina......

[libertarian4321]

Austin pollster finds, 16.7% voted in 2008 Demo primary

I suspect most of these are Independents/Republicans who voted in the 2008 Dem primary only to vote for the "lesser evil" Dem (or were listening to Rush Limbaugh and his ilk).

Remember that the 2008 primary was essentially meaningless for the Republicans (McCain was already preparing his acceptance speech), but critical for the Dems (Hillary and Obama were still neck and neck).

All it means is that this year, the Republican primary matters, so those who voted Dem in 2008