Public Policy Polling: [VA-5] Perriello 45%, McPadden 36% (and other numbers)

[malkusm]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...ase_VA_211.pdf

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Tom Perriello’s job
performance? If you approve, press 1. If you
disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Approve .................................................. ........ 42%
Disapprove........................................ .............. 46%
Not Sure.............................................. ............ 12%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael McPadden? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable......................................... ............... 5%
Unfavorable .................................................. .. 12%
Not Sure.............................................. ............ 83%

Q14 If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican
Michael McPadden, who would you vote for? If
Tom Perriello, press 1. If Michael McPadden,
press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Perriello......................................... .................. 45%
McPadden.......................................... ............. 36%
Undecided......................................... .............. 19%

Looking at the crosstabs - McPadden's unfavorability ratings are higher than his favorability ratings across the board, but this is in large part due to the fact that a percentage of self-identified "liberals" voted all GOP candidates as "unfavorable."

A lot of work to do, to be sure, but the supposed "favorite" to win the GOP nomination isn't doing a whole lot better, with 70% "Unsure" of how they would rate him (Robert Hurt) as compared to 83% for McPadden.

Bottom line - if McPadden wins the primary, he will likely take the general election. This is a pretty moderate/conservative district with a freshman Democrat representative (who won by about 800 votes in 2008).

[TCE]

Looks like he's in last place to me. He's gotta pick it up.

[malkusm]

Looks like he's in last place to me. He's gotta pick it up.

Well he didn't file until December and has really just gotten an organization in place in the last month to the point where he has been actively campaigning. He's been hitting about 3 events per week and he has a lot of volunteers....and as long as that continues, his numbers will continue to improve leading up to the primary in June. He also won the straw poll at a debate in Charlottesville a couple weeks ago (a debate which "favorite" Hurt declined to attend).