Dow up 500 to 24k , Gold soars to 1354, silver up about 1 percent or about 16 3/4. Nascrap up 160 .
Last edited by oyarde; 04-19-2018 at 05:12 PM.
A 6% year over year increase in consumer debt is dramatic, esp. as rates are rising.Originally Posted by Zippyjuan
Dow at 23850 . Hard to say . Just glad I do not owe any money .
Brent Crude could go below 70 and West Texas below 65 . Gold looks pretty steady around 1333 .
Daily market swings are becoming more abrupt and violent. Whipsawing is not a good sign.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
Rate hikes by the Fed will eventually lead to a recession and the length of this rally will lead to a brutal bear market. That said, rising rates aren't as bearish short term as people think.
I bet the market will back and fill for a while. This market is not super euphoric. We're still a long ways off from a recession. The market is broken right now but odds favor one more melt up months down the road.
It certainly was a week ago, and I see no indication that anything's really changed; it's still Pangloss as far as the eye can see.Rate hikes by the Fed will eventually lead to a recession and the length of this rally will lead to a brutal bear market. That said, rising rates aren't as bearish short term as people think.
I bet the market will back and fill for a while. This market is not super euphoric. We're still a long ways off from a recession. The market is broken right now but odds favor one more melt up months down the road.
We're a couple thousand points (e.g. 13) off capitulation.
The put/call ratio hit the the second highest level in 5 years last Friday.
The market is basically unpredictable and these longer term predictions are just for fun. But my experience is these go on for a lot longer than anyone thinks. Greenspan gave his irrational exuberance speech in 1996.
Greenspan's a funny character.
He, familiar with Austrian economics, knows exactly what he's done, despite his "who done it?" routine on TV.
...anyway, I'm still seeing plenty of that 'irrational exuberance,' in both the financial news and the markets themselves.
The Dow closed down 459 points on Monday. The Nasdaq plunged almost 3% and dropped into the red for the year. Heavy selling in tech stocks left the Nasdaq just shy of correction territory, 10% below its all-time closing high.
At one point, the Dow was down as much as 758 points, a brutal first day of trading for the second quarter of 2018. Market analysts blamed the sell-off on concerns about trade tensions and President Trump's attacks on Amazon.
Dow -600
We're about 400 points off the March low (which had itself broken the February low).
-750
At this rate, we might crack the low yet today.
"We May Take A Hit": Trump Warns Investors To Prepare For "Pain" In The Market
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...re-pain-market
1776 > 1984
The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.
The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide
Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled
Everybody loves higher prices and fewer jobs. Tariff wars are easy and fun!Moments ago, Trump himself confirmed that when in a radio interview on Friday morning, the president said that U.S. markets could face some “pain’’ from the trade standoff with China and other countries, but - like on Wednesday - asserted that in the long-run, Americans would be better off due to his protectionist actions.
Why are you even still here? You have no affect on us other than affirming our own beliefs that you are a Paid Shill.
1776 > 1984
The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.
The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide
Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled
Not today, Monday perhaps.
There's a lot of air under the March low.
10 year is taking another crack at 3%.
FWIW
Debt is relative. If I owe $20 and only have $40 (debt being 50% of my assets) , that is more of a problem than if I owe $200 (ten times the debt in dollar terms) but have $2000 in cash (ten percent of assets). That is why it is often expressed as a percent of GDP.
That's fundamental data not technical. You could be right. I just posted that because I saw it 3 minutes before I saw your post. This is obviously a much different situation than anytime when that data was compiled.
And our total debt/GDP is over 100% and rising rapidly. Most countries that get that high have a currency crisis.
I thought you were going to tell me the usual response that "people have been warning about the debt crisis for 40 years and nothing has happened". And my reply would've been "looking at what happens in just one country is too small of a sample size. If you look at all the countries over a long period of time, you'll see that economic/currency crisis are very common with high debt loads."
But you didn't!
Which of these countries are currently having a currency crisis?
Looks like the first ten need someone to manage spending pretty badly .Which of these countries are currently having a currency crisis?
Do something Danke
First of all that chart is missing a bunch of countries. Second, most of those countries are in the EU and share the same currency. And for Japan a lot of people there live in apartments the size of my closet. I've been trying to figure out a good way to look at debt/inflation correlation but it's hard to measure. For example Argentina has had lot's of bouts of hyperinflation but currently their debt/gdp is about 60%. But 10 years ago their debt/gdp was 160% and I'm assuming they got it down to 60% by massive inflation. The bottom line is that basic logic tells us that debt leads to printing which leads to price inflation.Which of these countries are currently having a currency crisis?
I'd say they pretty much all are. The BoJ owns something like 90% of all bonds issued in Japan now and has no plans to stop buying EVERYTHING.Which of these countries are currently having a currency crisis?
Been to a US grocery store lately? Gotta love a $15 T-bone steak and a $5 jar of olives. But no, all is well.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
I eat steak 3 days or more a week. I have never bought a steak for $15 at the grocery store. I have paid anywhere between $6-$9 at Wal-Mart for roughly a pound of ribeye.
No jar of olives is 5 bucks. I don't eat olives but I do eat mushrooms. A jar of mushrooms is like a $1.50 and olives are right next to mushrooms. I highly doubt they are that much more.
Never bought doesn't mean it's not that price. These days, a "steak" is any kind of beef that's not ground up that people can afford. "Thin sliced" T-bones are $12+/lb in my area. $5 for a jar of Manzanetta blue cheese stuffed olives.
Your doubts don't change the Food Lion price tags, sorry.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
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