It's October, time for a crash. It's not that easy is it? Is it?
It's October, time for a crash. It's not that easy is it? Is it?
I've been saying for a while that a second deflationary crash is inevitable. It's going to happen by the beginning of 2010.
BAM model calling for a crash now,
If the Fed were not playing games, we might have had one already. It is hard to trust a chart anymore as they mess with them all. Not just me noticing that. Watch the end of the day tape antics.
Most people are not picking up that the daily and hourly ADS line on the SPX are both dancing around the zero line. Starting to show a sick market. ETF'S appear to be messing up the $VIX as an indicator anymore.
Time will tell.
No way. I don't care what charts, what graphs what historical perspective anyone throws around if anything was going to crash it would have happened last year. This whole gloom and doom crap is rubbish. I think you'll start to see corporate earnings and quarter growth rise. With a few bumps here and there the FED will again print their way out of this whole mess without repercussion. They've got way too much invested to suffer another big drop.
Just when it comes to the fundamentals, I believe we have a second round of debt deflation coming. As soon as all of the pumped into financial markets enter the economy and cause general inflation, we will see a stock market crash as cash leaves the stock markets, a banking crisis as banks overexposed to stocks go under, and a general financial panic as investors pull out because of fear and high uncertainty. The resulting fall in the velocity of money will cause price deflation, especially in the valuation of assets like stocks and real estate.
We could also fall into a liquidity trap if the federal government becomes over-indebted, which is in itself a possibility. If debt exceeds over 100% of GDP, which looks like it will soon, investors might not be willing to buy T-bills at the current low rates. But since the Fed and other central banks will keep US Treasuries and T-bills at low rates, we could see a classical liquidity trap where monetary pumping ends up in bank reserves and under beds as creditors become too afraid to lend to anyone.
But after the second deflationary wave, it looks like we'll have major, double digit inflation in the cards.
Any big dates for Dr Paul's Fed Audit Bill coming up?
The week it goes up for a vote you can bet there will be havoc in the US markets so the bankers can say something about shaken confidence in the markets and martial law.
Not a conspiracy theory, just a conspiracy fact.
Well a huge wedge up on low volume usually doesn't just turn into another up move.
I've noticed a lot of buying that would usually drive prices up is now doing almost nothing.
This is the exact opposite of what happened in March.
There are big bears above this market biting the heads off the salmon as they pop out of the water. Grrrrrr.
I'm saying that I think it will happen sometime between now and the beginning of 2010. It seems as if all the factors are beginning to culminate into a crash, but it's impossible to tell exactly when that crash will come.Why do you think it will happen at the beggining of 2010 and not now?
DoW will hover around 10,000 mainly because US companies will continue to meet their profit projections thanks to growth in Emerging markets and even countries like Japan are better than expected economic numbers. I would recommend people to stick with multi national companies (Yum, Mcdonalds, Pepsi, Cat, P&G etc)
If you see there's gonna be Dow crash soon, what about the perspectives of dollar and how will it be affected by it?\
Usually when the market soars, the value of dollar decreases and vice versa. So i'm hoping that the dollar will regain?
Last edited by Che; 10-10-2009 at 05:25 PM.
Last I heard a week or so ago insider selling was 70 to 1.
Ultimately, the Fed should be able to inflate after that crash clears much of the market, but there is a slight possibility of a classical Keynesian-type liquidity trap, where interest rates for securities the Fed buys become so low that nobody except central banks and foreign governments buy them, as investors become paralyzed from fear. This could happen if national debt exceeds 100% and investors lose faith in the US government's ability to repay that debt. I doubt that such a long-run liquidity trap could happen though, but it is a possibility.
Cyclist, the guru forecaster from kitco forums has signaled for a waterfall type crash on 13th of October.
For a look at how the $USD is affecting things -
Look at a weekly chart of the dollar index/ UUP with a MACD indicator vs dow vs gold.
Notice how the MACD is closing up and what happened last time it did the same thing and crossed in March/April 08 - basically the start of all hell breaking loose.
This might sound crazy and sick, but I'm kind of excited. It's horrible what will happen to the life savings and earnings of millions of people, but this is a once in a millennium opportunity to witness the fall of an economic superpower.
you guys think having money in bank account, or stocks, could be wiped out soon? so its an all or none move to physical PM's soon?
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Since the government has been spending money it doesn't have shouldn't the stock market appear to go up with the devaluation of the dollar.
I heard someone on the the news say it was up in relation to the value of the dollar and some other currency's valuation being down but holding steady in relation to the price of gold.
I wrote the following a while back a think maybe it sort of applies here.
Original Content at http://www.opednews.com/articles/Why...90718-542.html
July 18, 2009
Why Freedom and Fiat Currency Can't Coexist.
By Carson Dugal
There is a basic fundamental reason why freedom cannot flourish as long as people are allowed to create fake money.
Take a look at the way the hidden tax of inflation has warped our view of the world. The first chart is of the Consumer Price Index.
For years every raise that came, I thought I was getting ahead. Looking at this chart I can see I was sadly mistaken.
Take the stock market and the feeding frenzy there.
Over the years the news has said that because of this, or that, the market responded up or down. Never once did they tell us that it went up because the value of money went down because someone in the government decided to print money it didn't have, and deflated the value of the real hard-earned money people had in their pockets or in their savings accounts.
Now take for instance the new push by those that have no money wanting to redefine the health care system. The people that have money have done their best, despite the interference of others, to create the system we now have. We pay cash or use insurance. It has been brought about in large part with real hard earned money.
Those who don't have any money have started the presses rolling to get money to their front organizations to sell us on their new plan. The president says the new plan will cover every one. That will be quite a burden on those few left working to foot the bill, especially with open borders. It will be quite a score for those that run organizations like the Federal Reserve or those that owe their jobs to obedience to lobby groups or others.
Inflation created with fiat money is a hidden tax. Not only have we been burdened with all of the other taxes (businesses don't pay taxes they only pass them on to consumers) we have also been burdened with a lot of new rules.
Is it any wonder it is no longer profitable, to try and be profitable, and so many have left work and went home?
Author's Bio: A concerned citizen.
This bullshit system could never have lasted so long and enslaved so many people if all those shortsighted fools had just stayed the hell out of debt.
Here, I will simplify for all those shortsighted fools:
Money based directly on productivity = good, enjoy prosperity.
Money based on debt = bad--do not use!
If you cannot find money based on productivity, go directly your congressman with tar and feathers in hand.
"This here's Miss Bonnie Parker. I'm Clyde Barrow. We rob banks."
I think tomorrow is going to be interesting.
"Your mother's dead, before long I'll be dead, and you...and your brother and your sister and all of her children, all of us dead, all of us..rotting in the ground. It's the family name that lives on. It's all that lives on. Not your personal glory, not your honor, but family." - Tywin Lannister
"The journalist is one who separates the wheat from the chaff, and then prints the chaff." - Adlai Stevenson
“I tell you that virtue does not come from money: but from virtue comes money and all other good things to man, both to the individual and to the state.” - Socrates