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Thread: Housing Starts ???!?

  1. #1

    Housing Starts ???!?

    So im trying to figure out how they are manipulating these numbers...


    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a.C6s0Isiw_Y


    Builders broke ground on 532,000 dwellings at an annual rate, with single-family starts posting a third straight gain, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Housing starts were projected to rise to a 485,000 annual pace, according to the median forecast of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 450,000 to 600,000.


    Permits rose 4 percent to a 518,000 pace from a 498,000 rate the previous month. They were forecast to increase to a 508,000 annual rate.

    Construction of single-family homes rose 7.5 percent to a 401,000 rate. Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, jumped 62 percent to an annual rate of 131,000.

    The increase in starts was led by a 29 percent jump in the West and a 17 percent increase in the South. They rose 11 percent in the Midwest and 2 percent in the Northeast.





    If they are bulldozing homes and keeping foreclosed homes off the market to prop the prices up, along with higher interest rates ( despite everything the FED is doing to keep them low) who the hell is building new homes ?!???!? and who's stupid enough to be buying them?



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  3. #2
    Just thought I'd add...

    Jim Kramer is on CNBC right now.... dressed up as a butterfly...calling a bottom in the housing market.....

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Lafayette View Post
    So im trying to figure out how they are manipulating these numbers...


    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a.C6s0Isiw_Y


    Builders broke ground on 532,000 dwellings at an annual rate, with single-family starts posting a third straight gain, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Housing starts were projected to rise to a 485,000 annual pace, according to the median forecast of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 450,000 to 600,000.


    Permits rose 4 percent to a 518,000 pace from a 498,000 rate the previous month. They were forecast to increase to a 508,000 annual rate.

    Construction of single-family homes rose 7.5 percent to a 401,000 rate. Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, jumped 62 percent to an annual rate of 131,000.

    The increase in starts was led by a 29 percent jump in the West and a 17 percent increase in the South. They rose 11 percent in the Midwest and 2 percent in the Northeast.





    If they are bulldozing homes and keeping foreclosed homes off the market to prop the prices up, along with higher interest rates ( despite everything the FED is doing to keep them low) who the hell is building new homes ?!???!? and who's stupid enough to be buying them?
    LOL half a million? WOW! Don't freak dude. Historically, NO ONE is building new homes. Data coming up..

    The average number of homes that "broke ground on an annual rate" per month since 1959 is 1.527 million. That's 604 months of data. Its not so much numbers manipulation as it is perception manipulation.

    http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data...=265&count=all

    re: cramer calling the bottom... LOL! So what was last month? How about Jan' 09? LOL, calling a bottom... pfftt... until the next set of low numbers come out, then we can call that a bottom too...

    Code:
            Month    Homes Built
    Apr-09    458
    Mar-09    525
    Feb-09    574
    Jan-09    488
    Dec-08    556
    Nov-08    655
    Oct-08    763
    Sep-08    822
    Aug-08    849
    Jul-08    933
    Jun-08    1,078
    May-08    971
    Apr-08    1,001
    Mar-08    993
    Feb-08    1,100
    Jan-08    1,083
    Dec-07    1,037
    Nov-07    1,197
    Oct-07    1,264
    Sep-07    1,183
    Aug-07    1,330
    Jul-07    1,354
    Jun-07    1,448
    May-07    1,415
    Apr-07    1,490
    Mar-07    1,495
    Feb-07    1,480
    Jan-07    1,409
    Dec-06    1,649
    Nov-06    1,570
    Oct-06    1,491
    Sep-06    1,720
    Aug-06    1,650
    Jul-06    1,737
    Jun-06    1,802
    May-06    1,942
    Apr-06    1,821
    Mar-06    1,969
    Feb-06    2,119
    Jan-06    2,273
    Dec-05    1,994
    Nov-05    2,147
    Oct-05    2,065
    Sep-05    2,151
    Aug-05    2,095
    Jul-05    2,054
    Jun-05    2,068
    May-05    2,025
    Apr-05    2,061
    Mar-05    1,864
    Feb-05    2,207
    Jan-05    2,144
    Dec-04    2,042
    Nov-04    1,782
    Oct-04    2,072
    Sep-04    1,905
    Aug-04    2,024
    Jul-04    2,002
    Jun-04    1,828
    May-04    1,981
    Apr-04    2,003
    Mar-04    1,998
    Feb-04    1,846
    Jan-04    1,911
    Dec-03    2,057
    Nov-03    2,083
    Oct-03    1,967
    Sep-03    1,939
    Aug-03    1,833
    Jul-03    1,897
    Jun-03    1,867
    May-03    1,751
    Apr-03    1,643
    Mar-03    1,726
    Feb-03    1,629
    Jan-03    1,853
    Dec-02    1,788
    Nov-02    1,753
    Oct-02    1,648
    Sep-02    1,804
    Aug-02    1,633
    Jul-02    1,655
    Jun-02    1,717
    May-02    1,764
    Apr-02    1,592
    Mar-02    1,642
    Feb-02    1,829
    Jan-02    1,698
    Dec-01    1,568
    Nov-01    1,602
    Oct-01    1,540
    Sep-01    1,562
    Aug-01    1,567
    Jul-01    1,670
    Jun-01    1,636
    May-01    1,605
    Apr-01    1,649
    Mar-01    1,590
    Feb-01    1,625
    Jan-01    1,600
    Dec-00    1,532
    Nov-00    1,551
    Oct-00    1,549
    Sep-00    1,507
    Aug-00    1,541
    Jul-00    1,463
    Jun-00    1,559
    May-00    1,575
    Apr-00    1,626
    Mar-00    1,604
    Feb-00    1,737
    Jan-00    1,636
    Dec-99    1,708
    Nov-99    1,648
    Oct-99    1,608
    Sep-99    1,635
    Aug-99    1,648
    Jul-99    1,669
    Jun-99    1,559
    May-99    1,611
    Apr-99    1,553
    Mar-99    1,710
    Feb-99    1,670
    Jan-99    1,748
    Dec-98    1,792
    Nov-98    1,660
    Oct-98    1,715
    Sep-98    1,582
    Aug-98    1,614
    Jul-98    1,698
    Jun-98    1,641
    May-98    1,536
    Apr-98    1,540
    Mar-98    1,567
    Feb-98    1,584
    Jan-98    1,525
    Dec-97    1,566
    Nov-97    1,510
    Oct-97    1,520
    Sep-97    1,546
    Aug-97    1,390
    Jul-97    1,437
    Jun-97    1,494
    May-97    1,442
    Apr-97    1,492
    Mar-97    1,457
    Feb-97    1,486
    Jan-97    1,355
    Dec-96    1,370
    Nov-96    1,489
    Oct-96    1,392
    Sep-96    1,475
    Aug-96    1,557
    Jul-96    1,472
    Jun-96    1,467
    May-96    1,504
    Apr-96    1,516
    Mar-96    1,424
    Feb-96    1,491
    Jan-96    1,467
    Dec-95    1,431
    Nov-95    1,452
    Oct-95    1,369
    Sep-95    1,369
    Aug-95    1,416
    Jul-95    1,461
    Jun-95    1,281
    May-95    1,314
    Apr-95    1,267
    Mar-95    1,249
    Feb-95    1,316
    Jan-95    1,407
    Dec-94    1,455
    Nov-94    1,511
    Oct-94    1,450
    Sep-94    1,474
    Aug-94    1,450
    Jul-94    1,439
    Jun-94    1,409
    May-94    1,526
    Apr-94    1,465
    Mar-94    1,564
    Feb-94    1,337
    Jan-94    1,272
    Dec-93    1,533
    Nov-93    1,376
    Oct-93    1,392
    Sep-93    1,343
    Aug-93    1,300
    Jul-93    1,254
    Jun-93    1,280
    May-93    1,260
    Apr-93    1,258
    Mar-93    1,083
    Feb-93    1,210
    Jan-93    1,210
    Dec-92    1,227
    Nov-92    1,214
    Oct-92    1,244
    Sep-92    1,186
    Aug-92    1,226
    Jul-92    1,139
    Jun-92    1,145
    May-92    1,214
    Apr-92    1,099
    Mar-92    1,297
    Feb-92    1,250
    Jan-92    1,176
    Dec-91    1,079
    Nov-91    1,103
    Oct-91    1,079
    Sep-91    1,015
    Aug-91    1,049
    Jul-91    1,063
    Jun-91    1,036
    May-91    996
    Apr-91    1,001
    Mar-91    921
    Feb-91    965
    Jan-91    798
    Dec-90    969
    Nov-90    1,145
    Oct-90    1,014
    Sep-90    1,110
    Aug-90    1,115
    Jul-90    1,171
    Jun-90    1,177
    May-90    1,212
    Apr-90    1,248
    Mar-90    1,289
    Feb-90    1,437
    Jan-90    1,551
    Dec-89    1,251
    Nov-89    1,351
    Oct-89    1,410
    Sep-89    1,279
    Aug-89    1,332
    Jul-89    1,427
    Jun-89    1,397
    May-89    1,331
    Apr-89    1,339
    Mar-89    1,422
    Feb-89    1,425
    Jan-89    1,621
    Dec-88    1,563
    Nov-88    1,569
    Oct-88    1,522
    Sep-88    1,492
    Aug-88    1,493
    Jul-88    1,467
    Jun-88    1,478
    May-88    1,421
    Apr-88    1,573
    Mar-88    1,532
    Feb-88    1,473
    Jan-88    1,271
    Dec-87    1,400
    Nov-87    1,656
    Oct-87    1,515
    Sep-87    1,695
    Aug-87    1,605
    Jul-87    1,575
    Jun-87    1,594
    May-87    1,628
    Apr-87    1,614
    Mar-87    1,726
    Feb-87    1,784
    Jan-87    1,774
    Dec-86    1,833
    Nov-86    1,623
    Oct-86    1,681
    Sep-86    1,687
    Aug-86    1,807
    Jul-86    1,782
    Jun-86    1,847
    May-86    1,854
    Apr-86    1,933
    Mar-86    1,876
    Feb-86    1,848
    Jan-86    1,972
    Dec-85    1,942
    Nov-85    1,698
    Oct-85    1,834
    Sep-85    1,676
    Aug-85    1,743
    Jul-85    1,684
    Jun-85    1,676
    May-85    1,680
    Apr-85    1,821
    Mar-85    1,800
    Feb-85    1,632
    Jan-85    1,711
    Dec-84    1,612
    Nov-84    1,689
    Oct-84    1,590
    Sep-84    1,698
    Aug-84    1,586
    Jul-84    1,732
    Jun-84    1,843
    May-84    1,774
    Apr-84    1,851
    Mar-84    1,663
    Feb-84    2,260
    Jan-84    1,897
    Dec-83    1,688
    Nov-83    1,785
    Oct-83    1,715
    Sep-83    1,710
    Aug-83    1,910
    Jul-83    1,785
    Jun-83    1,733
    May-83    1,776
    Apr-83    1,472
    Mar-83    1,606
    Feb-83    1,699
    Jan-83    1,586
    Dec-82    1,303
    Nov-82    1,372
    Oct-82    1,173
    Sep-82    1,144
    Aug-82    1,046
    Jul-82    1,166
    Jun-82    902
    May-82    1,025
    Apr-82    917
    Mar-82    931
    Feb-82    866
    Jan-82    843
    Dec-81    910
    Nov-81    837
    Oct-81    873
    Sep-81    911
    Aug-81    940
    Jul-81    1,041
    Jun-81    1,045
    May-81    1,140
    Apr-81    1,360
    Mar-81    1,306
    Feb-81    1,246
    Jan-81    1,547
    Dec-80    1,482
    Nov-80    1,510
    Oct-80    1,523
    Sep-80    1,471
    Aug-80    1,436
    Jul-80    1,269
    Jun-80    1,196
    May-80    927
    Apr-80    1,051
    Mar-80    1,047
    Feb-80    1,350
    Jan-80    1,341
    Dec-79    1,498
    Nov-79    1,524
    Oct-79    1,681
    Sep-79    1,832
    Aug-79    1,778
    Jul-79    1,760
    Jun-79    1,913
    May-79    1,876
    Apr-79    1,748
    Mar-79    1,847
    Feb-79    1,520
    Jan-79    1,630
    Dec-78    2,044
    Nov-78    2,094
    Oct-78    1,981
    Sep-78    1,970
    Aug-78    1,996
    Jul-78    2,092
    Jun-78    2,070
    May-78    2,075
    Apr-78    2,197
    Mar-78    2,032
    Feb-78    1,738
    Jan-78    1,718
    Dec-77    2,142
    Nov-77    2,042
    Oct-77    2,042
    Sep-77    1,949
    Aug-77    2,020
    Jul-77    2,058
    Jun-77    1,893
    May-77    1,971
    Apr-77    1,892
    Mar-77    2,063
    Feb-77    1,943
    Jan-77    1,527
    Dec-76    1,804
    Nov-76    1,641
    Oct-76    1,629
    Sep-76    1,720
    Aug-76    1,550
    Jul-76    1,401
    Jun-76    1,495
    May-76    1,459
    Apr-76    1,395
    Mar-76    1,421
    Feb-76    1,538
    Jan-76    1,367
    Dec-75    1,321
    Nov-75    1,360
    Oct-75    1,344
    Sep-75    1,264
    Aug-75    1,260
    Jul-75    1,226
    Jun-75    1,087
    May-75    1,121
    Apr-75    1,005
    Mar-75    993
    Feb-75    904
    Jan-75    1,032
    Dec-74    975
    Nov-74    1,026
    Oct-74    1,070
    Sep-74    1,150
    Aug-74    1,142
    Jul-74    1,316
    Jun-74    1,513
    May-74    1,426
    Apr-74    1,607
    Mar-74    1,555
    Feb-74    1,752
    Jan-74    1,451
    Dec-73    1,526
    Nov-73    1,724
    Oct-73    1,677
    Sep-73    1,874
    Aug-73    2,051
    Jul-73    2,123
    Jun-73    2,067
    May-73    2,266
    Apr-73    2,084
    Mar-73    2,365
    Feb-73    2,289
    Jan-73    2,481
    Dec-72    2,366
    Nov-72    2,421
    Oct-72    2,485
    Sep-72    2,481
    Aug-72    2,382
    Jul-72    2,252
    Jun-72    2,254
    May-72    2,221
    Apr-72    2,249
    Mar-72    2,334
    Feb-72    2,390
    Jan-72    2,494
    Dec-71    2,295
    Nov-71    2,182
    Oct-71    2,128
    Sep-71    2,041
    Aug-71    2,158
    Jul-71    2,083
    Jun-71    2,026
    May-71    2,049
    Apr-71    1,986
    Mar-71    1,910
    Feb-71    1,741
    Jan-71    1,828
    Dec-70    1,893
    Nov-70    1,647
    Oct-70    1,580
    Sep-70    1,534
    Aug-70    1,399
    Jul-70    1,517
    Jun-70    1,385
    May-70    1,290
    Apr-70    1,264
    Mar-70    1,319
    Feb-70    1,305
    Jan-70    1,085
    Dec-69    1,327
    Nov-69    1,229
    Oct-69    1,381
    Sep-69    1,507
    Aug-69    1,358
    Jul-69    1,368
    Jun-69    1,528
    May-69    1,583
    Apr-69    1,524
    Mar-69    1,561
    Feb-69    1,705
    Jan-69    1,769
    Dec-68    1,548
    Nov-68    1,630
    Oct-68    1,569
    Sep-68    1,556
    Aug-68    1,495
    Jul-68    1,512
    Jun-68    1,405
    May-68    1,408
    Apr-68    1,554
    Mar-68    1,466
    Feb-68    1,520
    Jan-68    1,380
    Dec-67    1,308
    Nov-67    1,538
    Oct-67    1,491
    Sep-67    1,421
    Aug-67    1,407
    Jul-67    1,364
    Jun-67    1,248
    May-67    1,304
    Apr-67    1,091
    Mar-67    1,056
    Feb-67    1,123
    Jan-67    1,067
    Dec-66    990
    Nov-66    961
    Oct-66    843
    Sep-66    1,046
    Aug-66    1,119
    Jul-66    1,086
    Jun-66    1,194
    May-66    1,265
    Apr-66    1,352
    Mar-66    1,394
    Feb-66    1,378
    Jan-66    1,370
    Dec-65    1,656
    Nov-65    1,460
    Oct-65    1,452
    Sep-65    1,482
    Aug-65    1,432
    Jul-65    1,529
    Jun-65    1,488
    May-65    1,478
    Apr-65    1,438
    Mar-65    1,423
    Feb-65    1,433
    Jan-65    1,361
    Dec-64    1,484
    Nov-64    1,486
    Oct-64    1,524
    Sep-64    1,455
    Aug-64    1,569
    Jul-64    1,562
    Jun-64    1,550
    May-64    1,467
    Apr-64    1,448
    Mar-64    1,517
    Feb-64    1,820
    Jan-64    1,603
    Dec-63    1,491
    Nov-63    1,622
    Oct-63    1,779
    Sep-63    1,763
    Aug-63    1,639
    Jul-63    1,614
    Jun-63    1,588
    May-63    1,641
    Apr-63    1,689
    Mar-63    1,534
    Feb-63    1,456
    Jan-63    1,244
    Dec-62    1,564
    Nov-62    1,622
    Oct-62    1,533
    Sep-62    1,324
    Aug-62    1,517
    Jul-62    1,450
    Jun-62    1,404
    May-62    1,483
    Apr-62    1,524
    Mar-62    1,443
    Feb-62    1,278
    Jan-62    1,361
    Dec-61    1,365
    Nov-61    1,385
    Oct-61    1,415
    Sep-61    1,429
    Aug-61    1,312
    Jul-61    1,335
    Jun-61    1,382
    May-61    1,228
    Apr-61    1,166
    Mar-61    1,312
    Feb-61    1,226
    Jan-61    1,183
    Dec-60    1,063
    Nov-60    1,246
    Oct-60    1,246
    Sep-60    1,097
    Aug-60    1,344
    Jul-60    1,197
    Jun-60    1,247
    May-60    1,271
    Apr-60    1,289
    Mar-60    1,109
    Feb-60    1,503
    Jan-60    1,460
    Dec-59    1,601
    Nov-59    1,416
    Oct-59    1,355
    Sep-59    1,540
    Aug-59    1,430
    Jul-59    1,547
    Jun-59    1,503
    May-59    1,498
    Apr-59    1,590
    Mar-59    1,620
    Feb-59    1,667
    Jan-59    1,657
    604    922450
    Last edited by newbitech; 06-16-2009 at 04:50 PM.

  5. #4
    Government Housing!

    Low Income housing... they are building them all over the country.

    That is what is skewing the numbers'
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  6. #5
    Thanks Newbitech, those numbers really put it into perspective.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by HOLLYWOOD View Post
    Government Housing!

    Low Income housing... they are building them all over the country.

    That is what is skewing the numbers'
    In my hometown, we have 3 or 4 'section 8' complexes going up across the city. My fiances mother is scared for her life. Our town is only like 30,000, but we live 30 minutes from new orleans. We used to have no crime, but since the hurricane, we have tons of crime.

  8. #7
    There's also seasonal factors. (Relative) increase in housing starts in the Spring...

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    There's also seasonal factors. (Relative) increase in housing starts in the Spring...
    Just wait till fall. Fall and winter are the worst housing months even during the good years.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by newbitech View Post
    LOL half a million? WOW! Don't freak dude. Historically, NO ONE is building new homes. Data coming up..

    The average number of homes that "broke ground on an annual rate" per month since 1959 is 1.527 million. That's 604 months of data. Its not so much numbers manipulation as it is perception manipulation.

    http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data...=265&count=all

    re: cramer calling the bottom... LOL! So what was last month? How about Jan' 09? LOL, calling a bottom... pfftt... until the next set of low numbers come out, then we can call that a bottom too...

    *snip*
    One of the coolest posts I've seen in awhile.


  12. #10
    I personally am in the housing building market this is hog wash,,,unemployed construction workers are at all time high and not looking good at all....its going to be a long winter...

  13. #11
    I live in oregon so that might explain some of it-----------the numbers say 12.4 percent unemployed but I dont think that is the real number seems to me more like 35.5 percent...

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by armstrong View Post
    I live in oregon so that might explain some of it-----------the numbers say 12.4 percent unemployed but I dont think that is the real number seems to me more like 35.5 percent...

    I'm in Oregon too. I think the numbers are way higher as well. Folks have been on unemployment so long they are falling off the rolls so the number looks lower.

    The housing market where I live is so bad they couldn't give the houses away because folks can't afford the property taxes.

    Cramer calling a bottom is laughable. Is he trying to lure people into the market? There is still, and will continue to be a massive disconnect in many areas of the country between wages < home prices.
    Heads and Hips, Heads and Hips!

  15. #13
    I'm from the west coast as well and in construction. We are hurting.

  16. #14
    A big damper on the enthusiasm in housing:

    U.S. mortgage applications fell for a fourth consecutive week, with overall demand plunging to its lowest level in nearly seven months, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/31402594

    I'm still trying to figure out how everyone thinks increased housing starts is good for home prices when it just increases inventory. Sure it signals a few builders have more confidence, but that doesn't mean people are going to buy, or that they will be able to. Earlier this year when housing starts plummeted the talking heads all said that was a good sign. It's funny how even the best news is looked at negatively when things are going down, and vice versa when things are going up.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Merk View Post
    I'm in Oregon too. I think the numbers are way higher as well. Folks have been on unemployment so long they are falling off the rolls so the number looks lower.

    The housing market where I live is so bad they couldn't give the houses away because folks can't afford the property taxes.

    Cramer calling a bottom is laughable. Is he trying to lure people into the market? There is still, and will continue to be a massive disconnect in many areas of the country between wages < home prices.

    That's why when Jim Cramer gets done speaking or the end of his gimmicky show, CNBC runs a DISCLAIMER.

    That Cramers words are just a Opinion and Exonerate CNBC from any liabilities.

    It's all CNBC garbage...bobbleheads spewing opinions
    The American Dream, Wake Up People, This is our country! <===click

    "All eyes are opened, or opening to the rights of man, let the annual return of this day(July 4th), forever refresh our recollections of these rights, and an undiminished devotion to them."
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    June 1826



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  18. #16
    There are no increased housing starts. Let's just bulldoze the whole country and start over, that will help the economy. /sarc
    "The journalist is one who separates the wheat from the chaff, and then prints the chaff." - Adlai Stevenson

    “I tell you that virtue does not come from money: but from virtue comes money and all other good things to man, both to the individual and to the state.” - Socrates



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