Black Monday ?

[cbc58]

will the other shoe drop monday?

[ryanduff]

The rumor I heard was -300

[Bruno]

The rumor I heard was -300

yikes!!

[ghengis86]

will the other shoe drop monday?

you mean to tell me we not barefoot already?! All time DOW high of ~14,100 week ending Oct. 8th, 2007 and then week ending 2/20/2009 at 7,365.

that's ~48% in two years!

other shoe lols! if you're right, damn, this is going to be bad.

edit: -48% in 16 months!

[FrankRep]

The rumor I heard was -300

Source of rumor?

[ghengis86]

The rumor I heard was -300

i heard a rumor i started myself that it would be down 3,000

[Dr.3D]

I think it has to get down to around 4000 before we see a bottom anyway.

[Kludge]

will the other shoe drop monday?

I don't understand the analogy.

[mconder]

that's ~48% in two years!

Just think...if you knew this was coming you could have pulled out all of your 401K, take the tax ding and probably come out ahead. Not to mention you could have spent it all on Gold, Shelter, Guns, & Food and how much better would you be today?

[acptulsa]

I don't understand the analogy.

Ancient vaudeville routine (sorry, that's redundant isn't it?). Guy can't sleep, then just as he's getting relaxed and starting to snore, the upstairs neighbor drops one boot (loudly) on the floor (his ceiling). Knowing he has two feet, the guy then waits for the other shoe to drop.

Eventually he gives up and gets comfortable again. Which is, of course, when the other boot hits his ceiling.

[Kludge]

Ancient vaudeville routine (sorry, that's redundant isn't it?). Guy can't sleep, then just as he's getting relaxed and starting to snore, the upstairs neighbor drops one boot (loudly) on the floor (his ceiling). Knowing he has two feet, the guy then waits for the other shoe to drop.

Eventually he gives up and gets comfortable again. Which is, of course, when the other boot hits his ceiling.

Huh... Thanks

[cbc58]

i don't know what will happen but i agree about complancency. we need the dow to go to 6k minimum to call a bottom imho.

ho hum... a trillion here... a trillion there and pretty soon you're talking about real money.

[Anti Federalist]

I don't understand the analogy.

Added to Kludge's list of phrases he hates.

[Cowlesy]

A rumor from someone with very high high connections told me, threatening double-secret-probation, that we'll be up 468pts on Monday.

[ryanduff]

Source of rumor?

I said it was a rumor. I did see it somewhere today, they were discussing the market for Friday/Monday.

[ryanduff]

I think it has to get down to around 4000 before we see a bottom anyway.

Like I keep saying, Dow should be in a 1:1 to 1:2 ratio with Gold. That means for Dow to be 4000, gold would have to be $2000-4000/oz.

Also remember that the Dow was at a fairly steady 1000 before this bubble started in the 80s.

[cbc58]

dows not going to 1k. 3.5 k maybe. inflation alone will keep it up that high.

I'd like to see what the dow would be adjusted for inflation right now... maybe someone has that info.

[ramallamamama]

dows not going to 1k. 3.5 k maybe. inflation alone will keep it up that high.

I'd like to see what the dow would be adjusted for inflation right now... maybe someone has that info.

George Ure over at Urban Survival shared some thoughts on that subject this morning.

...Nope: The real problem is the the week which ended October 1, 2007...when the Dow hit 14,066.01 on a closing basis.
"Huh?" (I can hear you asking that all the way out here in East Texas...)
Follow my logic here - I'll put it up as bullet points:

October 2007 the Dow closed at 14,066.01

Since it's now 2009 and the Minneapolis Fed's inflation calculator has been updated, we can see that in order to just stay even with inflation, the Dow would need to be at 14,820.13 today.

Which means: When we cross 7,410.065 this morning, on an inflation-adjusted basis the... DOW WILL HAVE LOST HALF ITS VALUE FROM OCTOBER OF 2007!!!

[forsmant]

3500-4000 is the next major support level. There are small ones on the way but the Dow did not close below the low of six years ago.

[ryanduff]

dows not going to 1k. 3.5 k maybe. inflation alone will keep it up that high.

I'd like to see what the dow would be adjusted for inflation right now... maybe someone has that info.

What's the reasoning behind this? Nothing personal, just want to hear your justification as to why the Dow will not drop below 3.5k? Schiff and plenty of others see plenty of good justification behind a 1:1 Dow/Gold ratio, so unless you can see gold hitting $3.5k/oz, I want to know why.

I hear plenty of people saying why it won't drop below a certain level, and most of the time its a psychological thing where they don't want it to or believe it can drop below a certain level.

[wd4freedom]

If you consider that our GDP was based upon 70% "consumerism" (prior to the fall), and that for all practical purposes our consumer demand in aggregate is falling off a cliff and will continue to fall, my bet is that the DOW will not reach a bottom until "consumer demand" has bottomed out and is reflected in the p/e of the DOW.... thus a 70% reduction in DOW which takes us down to (14400 - 10000) = 4000-5000 ish

[Original_Intent]

I have been calling a 4200 bottom to the DOW for months.

Not that I know anything - I don't have the first clue - but I do find it kinda cool that a LOT of people are guessing in that area now.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...highlight=4200

[cbc58]

What's the reasoning behind this?

My reasoning is:

1.) there are twice as many people in the world now then there were back then which increases demand for products and services no matter what the economy is like;
2.) the value of a dollar was much higher then than now so it took less to buy the same amount. so a dow 1000 then translates into a dow ??? now. one could argue that if inflation takes off like some expect that the dow would go up and not down based on hyperinflation. How could it not if we get into a Zimbabwe situation. so it could go down to say 3.5 and then shoot up simply because it takes more dollars to buy the same thing.
3.) the makeup of the dow components has varied over time and new technologies have been introduced. country economies are intertwined like never before.]
4.) alot of fear mongering and press from people wanting to sell you gold and silver for their own benefit.
5.) pure speculation on my part.

I would really like to know what the DOW is worth right now in early 80's dollars... because that would paint a more accurate picture of the situation and potential drop moving forward IMHO.

[ryanduff]

What's the reasoning behind this?

My reasoning is:

1.) there are twice as many people in the world now then there were back then which increases demand for products and services no matter what the economy is like;

So for the 20, 30, 40 years prior to 1980 when the Dow was very stable, people were not breeding and population was not going up?

What's the reasoning behind this?
2.) the value of a dollar was much higher then than now so it took less to buy the same amount. so a dow 1000 then translates into a dow ??? now. one could argue that if inflation takes off like some expect that the dow would go up and not down based on hyperinflation. How could it not if we get into a Zimbabwe situation. so it could go down to say 3.5 and then shoot up simply because it takes more dollars to buy the same thing.

And if hyperinflation kicks in like some are predicting... the dow might reach 14,000 again

[LibertyEagle]

It'll go up at some point. The big questions are WHAT and WHEN. I'm sure there will be some wild swings to come, but I think we have quite a bit further down to go.

Of course, that opinion is worth exactly what you paid for it.

[Sandra]

Probably a falsly generated rally will happen.

[cbc58]

bring the world population back down to the 1980 level, reverse advances in technology & healthcare, elimnate compounded inflation and decouple intertwined economies and you may see dow 1,000 again. don't thnk that's going to happen.

more likely (imho) is that it goes down for a period and then shoots up because of hyperinflation... which would be a false increase. does'nt mean the economy is any better... just that things cost more... alot more.

can anyone tell us what the dow is worth right now in 1980's dollars? that would be an eyeopener for many.

[cbc58]

here's a site: http://www.measuringworth.com/uscompare/

depending on what method you choose is says that the value of a dollar now vs. 1980 is anywhere from 1/2 to 1/5th of what it was. so if you use a 1/3 approach then the dow now is at about 2442 adjusted for inflation. i think this is right... maybe someone can correct me if not.

[ChaosControl]

Just think...if you knew this was coming you could have pulled out all of your 401K, take the tax ding and probably come out ahead. Not to mention you could have spent it all on Gold, Shelter, Guns, & Food and how much better would you be today?

Or you could have shorted a lot of stock or bought put options and be crazy rich.