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Thread: Mish was right, Peter Schiff was wrong - Here's the proof

  1. #1

    Mish was right, Peter Schiff was wrong - Here's the proof

    I don't understand why so many of you are defending Schiff and turning a blind eye to his terrible strategy. Many of his investors are down 50+% since the crash.

    He was correct in calling the crash, but he was totally wrong as to how to invest following the crash. He thought there was gonna be huge inflation and not the deflation that we're going through.

    Here's an article he wrote in December 2007 regarding why deflation won't happen after the crash. (remember, this is 8 months before the crash).

    http://www.safehaven.com/article-9083.htm

    Now here is Mish responding to his article. Basically, everything Mish outlines was correct while everything Peter said came out wrong:

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-rebuttal.html

    Then Peter Schiff responds to Mish's piece. Again, he's totally wrong while Mish is correct.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...deflation.html

    Remember, these articles were written over a year ago and before the crash. The point of following Schiff in the first place was so you could profit from the crash, not be worse off than the average investor.

    Sorry to burst your bubbles, but Mish IS correct now and he was correct back then. Don't try to sugar-coat it.



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  3. #2
    I would never bet on deflation in a country that is inflating it's currency.

    Schiff will always come out ahead in the long run.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  4. #3
    This is the fourth time a post is open about this. Is this necesary?

    Plus, Peter Schiff can be critiziced, there are post in the forum discussin it. The problem with Mish is that his attack was dishonest and lame. It was quite clear that he is jelous. Otherwise he would have done a proper article, and not a manipulative one.

    Hugo

  5. #4
    You also have to realize that our currency is the reserve currency of the entire world. As soon as the dollar weakens enough, countries are going to begin dumping their dollars back on us which is going to cause massive inflation. It could have potentially happened 8 months ago and your buddy Mish would have been totally hosed. Instead the system has been propped up, but the end results are inevitable.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  6. #5
    Go ahead and invest in Treasuries with Mish then...

  7. #6
    I love how you guys keep defending Shciff. LOL. Hey, I guess it's your money.

    BTW, did you guys even read all 3 links I pointed to?

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by juggle View Post
    I don't understand why so many of you are defending Schiff and turning a blind eye to his terrible strategy. Many of his investors are down 50+% since the crash.

    He was correct in calling the crash, but he was totally wrong as to how to invest following the crash. He thought there was gonna be huge inflation and not the deflation that we're going through.

    Here's an article he wrote in December 2007 regarding why deflation won't happen after the crash. (remember, this is 8 months before the crash).

    http://www.safehaven.com/article-9083.htm

    Now here is Mish responding to his article. Basically, everything Mish outlines was correct while everything Peter said came out wrong:

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-rebuttal.html

    Then Peter Schiff responds to Mish's piece. Again, he's totally wrong while Mish is correct.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...deflation.html

    Remember, these articles were written over a year ago and before the crash. The point of following Schiff in the first place was so you could profit from the crash, not be worse off than the average investor.

    Sorry to burst your bubbles, but Mish IS correct now and he was correct back then. Don't try to sugar-coat it.
    the crash hasn't happened yet. It's still in it's infant stages buddy.
    you can buy now using an elevated dollar to get in on things that are poised to go way up when the dollar collapses. If he's right, and I think he is, his profits are going to be ridiculous. I've already showed by referencing some mining stocks that you can make a killing in this market playing Schiff's investment strategy.

    -theoakman, RPF 1/26/09.

    Oh what a difference 10 months makes. Deflationists, where are thou?

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    You also have to realize that our currency is the reserve currency of the entire world. As soon as the dollar weakens enough, countries are going to begin dumping their dollars back on us which is going to cause massive inflation. It could have potentially happened 8 months ago and your buddy Mish would have been totally hosed. Instead the system has been propped up, but the end results are inevitable.
    Exactly, wait until the end of June and check the prices again. The deflation is only temporary.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up View Post
    Go ahead and invest in Treasuries with Mish then...
    This goes to show how much you know. Mish is out of Treasuries. He called that correctly (up over 30%) and now he feels the risk/reward isn't there anymore. So he doesn't recommend investing in them anymore.

    Mish is fluid like a Ninja.

  12. #10
    What's the purpose of starting the umpteenth thread about this? And why do all the OP's have low posts?

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by juggle View Post
    Mish is fluid like a Ninja.
    We'll see.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Sandra View Post
    What's the purpose of starting the umpteenth thread about this? And why do all the OP's have low posts?
    Maybe they don't know how to use the search feature.
    Or perhaps they are working for the PTB.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by juggle View Post
    I love how you guys keep defending Shciff. LOL. Hey, I guess it's your money.

    BTW, did you guys even read all 3 links I pointed to?
    You don't get it, it's all about predicting the timing of the dollar being destroyed as it loses it's status as reserve currency of the world. Nobody knows when that is going to happen, and your buddy Mish doesn't seem to understand the concept. Do you? It means every country is holding billions of dollars as "reserves" like a bank used to hold gold, or like financial institutions hold assets or cash or other forms of reserves. When the dollar becomes weak enough it is going to experience a supercrash because of this. You and Mish are in denial. My point is this could have happened 8 months ago, it could happen tomorrow, or in another 8 months.. who knows? Only the elite world bankers will be able to predict it because they are behind it. The point is you are calling the game pre-maturely.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  16. #14
    I am starting to think that these posters are Mish employees or PR fronts. I mean, with the advent of Schiff and his undeniable popularity, Mish is a little jealous and all of a sudden - we are swamped by all these goofy posts. Drawing some comparisions and critiques is fine, but it's starting to smell alot like 'there is more to this than meets the eye..."

    Mish, is that you?

  17. #15
    His argument was that even though the Fed was going to print money like crazy, it was not going to outpace the destruction of all the credit created by the fractional reserve system.

    Doesn't mean he's not bullish in gold/silver in the long run. It's just it would've been much better not to buy silver like I did at $20/oz and have it get crushed and having to wait 1-2 years for it to go back up just to break even. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 but because he called it so accurately I have to give him props.

  18. #16
    Peter Schiff is right in the long run about commodities. I'm not so sure about "decoupling" foreign stocks and American stocks, though. It seems like all countries will need to go through a recession.



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by krazy kaju View Post
    I'm not so sure about "decoupling" foreign stocks and American stocks, though. It seems like all countries will need to go through a recession.
    It will happen eventually, just not for another 10-20 years. They are not ready just yet.

  21. #18
    I've heard plenty of interviews with Schiff and he clearly states he missed the timing of the inflation. If people invested with Schiff's advise than they must hold the course. There's one thing that is certain and garaunteed to happen INFLATION. It's coming. Schiff admits his timing was off.

    Think of this deflationary period as spring strongly compressed. Once that compression is released the spring will decrompress at an extremely fast rate. Timing this is nearly impossible but everyone can prepare themselves and I believe Schiff has us prepared. Perhaps it was a little soon but at least it wasn't too late.

  22. #19
    If Mish is still in the dollar when the Fed starts buying all unsold treasuries, he and his clients are going to lose everything.

    It's stupid to try to play in the markets according to the actions of central bankers. All they have to do is do one thing different one time and you'll find yourself wiped out. It's far better to look at the big picture and realize what the overall implications are, and invest accordingly. That is the sure bet. Playing at market timing is a fool's game.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by tmosley View Post
    If Mish is still in the dollar when the Fed starts buying all unsold treasuries, he and his clients are going to lose everything.

    It's stupid to try to play in the markets according to the actions of central bankers. All they have to do is do one thing different one time and you'll find yourself wiped out. It's far better to look at the big picture and realize what the overall implications are, and invest accordingly. That is the sure bet. Playing at market timing is a fool's game.

    The dollar is not going to crash in one day.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by hugolp View Post
    The problem with Mish is that his attack was dishonest and lame. It was quite clear that he is jelous.
    That is your opinion. But I read Mish's blog article in question, and it was not clear at all that he was jealous.

    What was clear was that Schiff made some wrong calls and Mish outlined these correctly. The Schiff apologists here who are trying to refute Mish seem intent on twisting what Mish wrote into something totally different (e.g. relying on strawman arguments).

    Schiff made an uncannily accurate (but a couple of years too early) description of the housing crash which is why he is now featured in a Fortune article, but his other calls were clearly wrong and those are the ones Mish enumerated.

    Another seemingly smart deflationist is Gary North, his analysis runs deep and is not one of those gold bug/commodity chicken littles who claim that the USD will go down and that gold and commodities will go up whatever happens.
    Last edited by jon_perez; 01-29-2009 at 10:13 PM.

  25. #22
    An economist pointing out the mistakes ofanother economist is bad form. He should float on his own merit.

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by jy006m View Post
    The dollar is not going to crash in one day.
    Don't be so sure about that. While it is unlikely to lose all of its value in a day, one of the things Ron Paul keeps talking about is all the secretive meetings between the central banks, and the expectation that we could see an earthshattering announcement some time around April.

    Why is this relevant?

    The US Treasury bond market is a ponzi scheme. We have an astronomical amount of debt (and are only massively accelerating our deficit spending). Other nations understand to various degrees what is happening in the US. Because the situation has gotten so bad here, one of the options that may be under consideration is an official currency devaluation. If the Fed chooses this route, you would wake up one morning and the currency would indeed be worth a lot less.

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Chase View Post
    Don't be so sure about that. While it is unlikely to lose all of its value in a day, one of the things Ron Paul keeps talking about is all the secretive meetings between the central banks, and the expectation that we could see an earthshattering announcement some time around April.

    Why is this relevant?

    The US Treasury bond market is a ponzi scheme. We have an astronomical amount of debt (and are only massively accelerating our deficit spending). Other nations understand to various degrees what is happening in the US. Because the situation has gotten so bad here, one of the options that may be under consideration is an official currency devaluation. If the Fed chooses this route, you would wake up one morning and the currency would indeed be worth a lot less.
    There's no trick they can do to stop inflation. The only thing they can possibly do is con the rest of the world into turning the dollars in for some new "world bank" issued currency. Despite this, it still creates inflation all over the world and bids up the price of commodities because they would still like to spend the reserves they have. That means, increased consumption for the world and decreased consumption for the US. Furthermore, it nullifies the US's ability to borrow money and crashes the consumer driven economy anyway. On top of that, the domestic money supply will still be doubled, according to the Monetary base, which was more than enough to drive Weimar republic into hyperinflation.

    It's not a question of how much inflation we will have. It's only a question of how much the rest of the world is willing to eat for us.
    you can buy now using an elevated dollar to get in on things that are poised to go way up when the dollar collapses. If he's right, and I think he is, his profits are going to be ridiculous. I've already showed by referencing some mining stocks that you can make a killing in this market playing Schiff's investment strategy.

    -theoakman, RPF 1/26/09.

    Oh what a difference 10 months makes. Deflationists, where are thou?



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by juggle View Post
    Mish is fluid like a Ninja.
    Surely you don't mean those Ninja loans? No Income, No Job, no Assets


    Quote Originally Posted by jon_perez View Post
    That is your opinion. But I read Mish's blog article in question, and it was not clear at all that he was jealous.

    What was clear was that Schiff made some wrong calls and Mish outlined these correctly. The Schiff apologists here who are trying to refute Mish seem intent on twisting what Mish wrote into something totally different (e.g. relying on strawman arguments).
    I do not think Mish made very good assertions. I think it is best to leave motive out of the discussion so I consider jealousy irrelevant.

    The blogger in question implies that all of my clients are down by levels similar to the account he cites. He has asked me to refute his allegations by providing broader performance figures for more clients. But, since Euro Pacific Capital is a brokerage firm and not a Registered Investment Advisor, I am prohibited by regulators from providing any details on the investment performance achieved by my clients. The blogger in question makes his challenge knowing full well that I am legally prevented from accepting it. He then uses my failure to refute his false claim as validating its accuracy.
    If Mish did this intentionally as Schiff suggests then it reflects extremely poorly on the quality of Mish's argument. If Mish did it ignorantly it may be even worse and reflect on possible malpractice should one use Mish's services. Either way it was not a wise move by Mish.

    I also do not think it is proper for Mish to frame the issue to performance only in 2008. Narrowing the time period is too persuasive for a purportedly objective post.

    Of course, this is a common tactic of Mish in his posts; to write persuasively and pretend to be writing objectively which I think is a disservice to one's readers. Either write persuasively or objectively but do not write persuasively while pretending to be objective. If you try that type of garbage in court then the judge is going to get really pissed at you and you will develop a bad reputation with the rest of the lawyers.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by jon_perez View Post
    That is your opinion. But I read Mish's blog article in question, and it was not clear at all that he was jealous.

    What was clear was that Schiff made some wrong calls and Mish outlined these correctly. The Schiff apologists here who are trying to refute Mish seem intent on twisting what Mish wrote into something totally different (e.g. relying on strawman arguments).

    Schiff made an uncannily accurate (but a couple of years too early) description of the housing crash which is why he is now featured in a Fortune article, but his other calls were clearly wrong and those are the ones Mish enumerated.

    Another seemingly smart deflationist is Gary North, his analysis runs deep and is not one of those gold bug/commodity chicken littles who claim that the USD will go down and that gold and commodities will go up whatever happens.
    no, Mish used plenty of straw man arguments. Referencing indexes and cherry picking short term performance, misquoting predictions. I'll say it again, if Mish is looking to get clients, he should appear on TV and write books instead of attack others.
    you can buy now using an elevated dollar to get in on things that are poised to go way up when the dollar collapses. If he's right, and I think he is, his profits are going to be ridiculous. I've already showed by referencing some mining stocks that you can make a killing in this market playing Schiff's investment strategy.

    -theoakman, RPF 1/26/09.

    Oh what a difference 10 months makes. Deflationists, where are thou?

  31. #27
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by jon_perez View Post
    That is your opinion. But I read Mish's blog article in question, and it was not clear at all that he was jealous.
    I use to read Mish blog, but I stopped since he wrote that. A person who can make such a manipulative article, with half true statments just out of jelousy and to steal clients is not truthworthy. He wont tell the truth, he will tell what is interesting for him.

    The whole point you dont get is that the problem is not that he critiziced Peter Schiff. Peter Schiff got part of his predictions timing wrong and there are post in this forum discussing about it (before the Mish article). The problem with Mish article is that it was lame and manipulative. His arguments werent up to what you would spect from a proper economist.

    Im sorry but I dont trust someone like that.

    Hugo

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by hugolp View Post
    The problem with Mish article is that it was lame and manipulative. His arguments werent up to what you would spect from a proper economist.

    Im sorry but I dont trust someone like that.
    Like I said, that's your opinion. It just doesn't seem that way to me. On the contrary it was Schiff's reply to Mish that sounded lame and manipulative and full of strawmen. But then, that 's my opinion.

    Anyway, the proof of the pudding is in what will happen a few years from now. But frankly, whether it is Mish or Schiff who turns out to be right, there is still an element of luck involved in both their predictions.

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by juggle View Post
    I love how you guys keep defending Shciff. LOL. Hey, I guess it's your money.

    BTW, did you guys even read all 3 links I pointed to?
    and its weird people come back saying the same thing over and over with links of dubious origins, like Peter Schiff was satanic and should be avoided at all cost.

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